Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 3.8 Standard Deviation: 8.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 MAE: 2.1 1.8 2.3 0.5 1.9 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.6 RMSE: 3.1 3.5 3.3 0.8 3.2 3.1 2.3 1.8 2.5 RMAE: 24.5 20.3 38.0 20.5 22.1 25.5 14.4 11.5 16.9 CORR: 0.943 0.932 0.928 0.995 0.943 0.947 0.975 0.983 0.970 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 4.3 Standard Deviation: 8.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.6 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 MAE: 1.7 1.8 2.2 0.4 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.5 RMSE: 2.9 3.2 3.1 0.7 3.0 2.9 2.1 1.6 2.3 RMAE: 35.5 34.0 38.3 15.7 34.7 35.4 26.4 22.9 28.9 CORR: 0.949 0.943 0.946 0.996 0.947 0.951 0.976 0.985 0.972 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 9.4 Standard Deviation: 11.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.6 MAE: 2.7 2.8 3.1 1.5 2.8 2.8 2.2 2.0 2.4 RMSE: 3.7 3.9 3.9 2.1 3.8 3.7 3.0 2.6 3.1 RMAE: 46.3 48.1 47.7 32.4 47.2 45.9 40.7 37.9 40.9 CORR: 0.953 0.947 0.951 0.983 0.950 0.952 0.970 0.977 0.967 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 21.5 Standard Deviation: 14.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 1.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.6 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 MAE: 4.9 4.5 6.5 2.7 4.7 5.3 3.9 3.6 4.5 RMSE: 6.2 6.5 7.4 3.6 6.3 6.3 4.8 4.3 5.2 RMAE: 55.7 63.4 62.2 20.1 59.5 60.1 45.9 37.2 49.5 CORR: 0.906 0.902 0.871 0.970 0.905 0.903 0.944 0.957 0.936 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 37.2 Standard Deviation: 19.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -0.1 2.8 -0.4 -0.1 0.9 -0.2 -0.2 0.6 MAE: 5.5 5.1 9.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 4.9 4.8 5.4 RMSE: 7.4 7.6 10.2 5.9 7.4 7.6 6.6 6.3 7.0 RMAE: 20.7 18.6 37.2 15.3 19.7 23.7 17.6 17.2 20.5 CORR: 0.922 0.918 0.857 0.951 0.921 0.917 0.937 0.943 0.932 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 52.2 Standard Deviation: 21.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -1.6 0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4 -0.5 MAE: 6.8 6.3 8.9 5.2 6.5 7.1 5.9 5.8 6.6 RMSE: 8.2 9.0 9.9 6.9 8.4 8.4 7.6 7.2 7.7 RMAE: 14.9 13.5 19.6 11.3 14.1 15.6 12.7 12.5 14.2 CORR: 0.921 0.906 0.885 0.945 0.917 0.917 0.934 0.940 0.930 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 61.2 Standard Deviation: 22.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.7 1.1 0.5 -0.8 -0.2 -0.4 0.3 -0.0 MAE: 7.0 6.7 10.1 5.3 6.9 7.4 5.7 5.5 6.4 RMSE: 9.4 9.8 12.1 6.4 9.5 9.8 7.9 7.2 8.4 RMAE: 12.5 11.8 19.2 10.2 12.1 13.6 10.4 10.2 11.9 CORR: 0.908 0.901 0.862 0.959 0.906 0.901 0.936 0.947 0.926 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 65.0 Standard Deviation: 28.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.0 2.2 1.6 -0.5 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.7 MAE: 15.9 15.7 20.1 14.8 15.8 16.5 15.2 15.0 15.8 RMSE: 21.3 21.7 24.8 19.6 21.4 21.9 20.4 20.0 20.9 RMAE: 36.2 33.6 43.6 35.9 34.9 36.6 34.8 35.4 35.7 CORR: 0.657 0.650 0.609 0.722 0.655 0.646 0.692 0.708 0.677 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 64.0 Standard Deviation: 27.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 2.2 0.6 -1.1 1.1 0.9 0.4 -0.5 0.4 MAE: 13.8 13.2 15.1 9.0 13.5 13.8 11.4 10.8 12.0 RMSE: 16.7 17.6 18.5 12.1 16.9 17.0 14.7 13.7 15.2 RMAE: 29.5 28.6 32.8 19.1 29.0 29.7 24.8 23.3 26.2 CORR: 0.788 0.771 0.756 0.895 0.784 0.783 0.841 0.864 0.832 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 48.9 Standard Deviation: 26.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -0.2 -3.6 -0.1 -0.1 -1.3 -0.1 -0.1 -1.0 MAE: 7.7 7.0 10.6 4.6 7.3 8.1 5.9 5.5 6.6 RMSE: 9.9 10.4 12.1 6.0 10.0 10.2 7.9 7.0 8.5 RMAE: 20.9 18.5 28.4 11.4 19.5 21.3 14.9 13.1 16.6 CORR: 0.927 0.919 0.908 0.974 0.925 0.925 0.954 0.965 0.948 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 28.0 Standard Deviation: 21.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.9 -1.4 -0.3 -1.0 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 -0.9 MAE: 11.2 10.2 16.4 9.3 10.6 12.1 10.0 10.1 11.1 RMSE: 14.1 15.1 18.6 12.6 14.3 14.7 13.3 12.9 13.8 RMAE: 76.3 91.6 78.3 55.3 83.1 74.8 72.7 65.1 67.6 CORR: 0.756 0.716 0.554 0.812 0.747 0.731 0.787 0.800 0.770 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 9.5 Standard Deviation: 14.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.6 -0.8 1.6 0.7 -0.1 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.5 MAE: 7.3 7.0 8.3 3.9 7.1 7.4 5.8 5.2 6.1 RMSE: 10.5 11.0 11.4 5.4 10.7 10.5 8.3 7.1 8.7 RMAE: 78.2 57.7 110.9 56.9 67.3 79.8 59.1 60.0 66.7 CORR: 0.712 0.686 0.674 0.936 0.706 0.709 0.860 0.898 0.828 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------