Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 3.8 Standard Deviation: 8.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.1 -3.8 2.8 0.1 -1.8 -0.3 -1.2 0.1 -0.2 MAE: 5.3 3.8 7.2 2.6 4.5 5.4 3.9 4.0 4.7 RMSE: 7.5 8.9 8.7 4.3 7.9 7.5 6.1 5.3 6.3 RMAE: 76.1 100.0 98.3 45.9 77.9 80.4 64.5 60.9 71.7 CORR: 0.381 -99.000 0.327 0.848 0.381 0.363 0.805 0.805 0.677 Pval: 0.015 -99.000 0.039 0.000 0.015 0.021 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 4.3 Standard Deviation: 8.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.1 -4.3 4.4 0.1 -2.1 0.1 -1.4 0.1 0.1 MAE: 5.8 4.3 8.5 2.6 5.0 6.0 4.2 4.2 5.1 RMSE: 8.0 9.6 9.9 4.3 8.4 8.1 6.5 5.5 6.8 RMAE: 74.3 100.0 113.8 42.8 70.9 78.7 61.1 58.3 69.6 CORR: 0.357 -99.000 0.253 0.866 0.357 0.311 0.825 0.825 0.702 Pval: 0.024 -99.000 0.115 0.000 0.024 0.051 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 9.4 Standard Deviation: 11.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.4 -0.2 2.5 -0.6 0.1 0.9 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 MAE: 7.7 6.7 8.7 4.6 7.2 7.7 6.2 5.9 6.7 RMSE: 9.3 8.9 9.9 6.3 9.0 9.2 7.5 7.0 8.0 RMAE: 103.3 99.6 131.8 36.4 101.4 111.4 75.3 63.2 87.9 CORR: 0.616 0.643 0.573 0.842 0.636 0.625 0.786 0.826 0.758 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 21.5 Standard Deviation: 14.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.1 0.4 -5.6 -0.4 0.3 -1.7 0.1 -0.1 -1.4 MAE: 8.8 8.3 11.6 7.1 8.5 9.1 7.9 7.7 8.5 RMSE: 11.1 11.4 13.7 9.4 11.1 11.4 10.2 9.8 10.6 RMAE: 128.8 139.9 129.1 106.3 134.3 128.9 124.0 116.4 122.5 CORR: 0.653 0.632 0.580 0.766 0.648 0.639 0.721 0.746 0.697 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 37.2 Standard Deviation: 19.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -2.1 4.9 -1.2 -1.0 1.0 -1.1 -0.6 0.4 MAE: 13.8 13.3 14.9 10.2 13.6 13.8 11.7 11.0 12.3 RMSE: 16.5 17.6 18.5 12.7 16.8 16.7 14.3 13.2 14.8 RMAE: 58.9 56.0 68.7 44.2 57.5 60.2 51.0 48.7 54.2 CORR: 0.493 0.410 0.423 0.748 0.470 0.479 0.692 0.755 0.649 Pval: 0.001 0.009 0.007 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 52.2 Standard Deviation: 21.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.9 5.6 1.2 -0.9 1.2 -0.2 0.6 1.2 MAE: 15.2 14.3 19.6 9.6 14.7 16.1 12.4 11.5 13.7 RMSE: 19.3 19.6 21.5 13.3 19.4 19.5 16.2 15.0 17.0 RMAE: 37.2 34.2 47.0 26.7 35.6 39.1 31.6 30.4 34.5 CORR: 0.386 0.364 0.371 0.773 0.381 0.382 0.683 0.743 0.604 Pval: 0.014 0.021 0.018 0.000 0.015 0.015 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 61.2 Standard Deviation: 22.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 2.2 -1.4 1.6 1.1 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.6 MAE: 17.8 16.7 18.7 12.6 17.2 17.6 15.1 14.4 15.9 RMSE: 20.4 22.7 22.0 15.8 21.0 20.9 18.4 17.1 18.9 RMAE: 35.3 33.1 36.6 26.9 34.2 34.8 31.1 30.1 32.3 CORR: 0.417 0.398 0.284 0.712 0.408 0.392 0.575 0.669 0.534 Pval: 0.008 0.011 0.076 0.000 0.009 0.012 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 65.0 Standard Deviation: 28.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.6 0.1 -1.5 -0.8 -0.5 -1.0 -0.7 -0.7 MAE: 17.6 16.8 27.7 10.6 17.2 19.0 14.1 12.9 15.8 RMSE: 23.1 23.8 32.0 15.2 23.3 24.2 18.8 17.0 20.2 RMAE: 42.0 40.9 56.6 26.0 41.5 43.8 34.8 32.0 37.7 CORR: 0.573 0.542 0.505 0.845 0.567 0.549 0.784 0.824 0.698 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 64.0 Standard Deviation: 27.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 4.8 -10.2 0.2 2.4 -1.8 1.7 0.1 -1.3 MAE: 17.1 15.8 20.3 9.9 16.5 17.0 13.7 12.7 14.8 RMSE: 20.7 22.1 24.4 14.1 21.1 20.9 17.7 16.1 18.3 RMAE: 37.9 38.3 38.3 24.3 38.1 36.2 32.5 29.6 32.5 CORR: 0.647 0.620 0.605 0.854 0.639 0.644 0.765 0.812 0.740 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 48.9 Standard Deviation: 26.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -3.2 6.6 2.2 -1.6 1.1 -0.3 1.1 1.4 MAE: 17.0 16.2 23.1 13.3 16.6 18.1 15.2 14.8 16.6 RMSE: 21.3 21.8 26.4 17.1 21.4 21.8 18.7 17.8 19.8 RMAE: 47.0 37.5 73.4 44.6 42.3 51.3 42.6 45.3 49.3 CORR: 0.595 0.592 0.322 0.769 0.594 0.569 0.711 0.753 0.678 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.042 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 28.0 Standard Deviation: 21.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -3.8 8.7 0.2 -1.9 1.6 -1.2 0.1 1.3 MAE: 17.6 16.1 20.0 12.0 16.7 17.2 14.4 13.8 15.6 RMSE: 20.9 23.1 23.4 16.6 21.5 21.2 18.8 17.6 19.2 RMAE: 133.5 92.9 218.2 65.2 112.8 145.6 93.4 94.7 123.7 CORR: 0.231 0.130 -0.076 0.634 0.179 0.176 0.527 0.640 0.537 Pval: 0.158 0.431 0.644 0.000 0.276 0.283 0.001 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 9.5 Standard Deviation: 14.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -9.5 12.0 -0.0 -4.7 0.8 -3.2 -0.0 0.6 MAE: 10.9 9.5 17.1 6.9 9.9 11.4 8.7 8.9 10.2 RMSE: 14.4 17.6 18.9 10.1 15.2 14.5 12.6 11.2 12.7 RMAE: 94.9 100.0 240.3 86.1 78.7 115.5 77.0 87.7 105.4 CORR: 0.263 -99.000 0.211 0.736 0.263 0.249 0.716 0.716 0.650 Pval: 0.106 -99.000 0.198 0.000 0.106 0.127 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------