Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 25.3 Standard Deviation: 16.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.2 -0.3 1.0 0.0 -0.0 0.3 -0.0 0.1 0.2 MAE: 5.5 5.1 6.7 3.0 5.2 5.5 4.2 3.8 4.7 RMSE: 7.0 7.6 7.8 3.8 7.1 7.0 5.6 4.8 5.9 RMAE: 30.5 23.0 49.3 27.6 26.4 32.6 23.6 24.2 28.9 CORR: 0.911 0.895 0.891 0.974 0.906 0.910 0.944 0.959 0.939 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 41.5 Standard Deviation: 21.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.1 0.6 -0.9 -0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.0 -0.3 -0.2 MAE: 7.3 6.8 9.6 5.3 7.0 7.6 5.9 5.7 6.6 RMSE: 9.3 9.9 11.1 6.9 9.5 9.4 8.0 7.3 8.3 RMAE: 30.3 30.5 33.7 16.8 30.4 30.7 24.3 21.7 25.8 CORR: 0.897 0.883 0.855 0.945 0.893 0.894 0.926 0.938 0.920 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 61.6 Standard Deviation: 23.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 MAE: 6.5 6.2 8.9 4.8 6.3 7.0 5.5 5.3 6.2 RMSE: 8.4 8.9 10.1 6.2 8.5 8.6 7.2 6.7 7.6 RMAE: 11.9 11.5 17.1 8.7 11.7 12.8 10.1 9.6 11.3 CORR: 0.932 0.924 0.901 0.964 0.930 0.929 0.951 0.958 0.946 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 82.7 Standard Deviation: 26.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 1.2 -3.2 -0.8 0.6 -0.7 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 MAE: 8.5 7.7 10.3 4.7 8.1 8.7 6.6 6.1 7.3 RMSE: 10.5 12.0 11.7 6.2 10.9 10.6 8.6 7.5 9.0 RMAE: 12.2 11.2 14.3 6.3 11.7 12.4 9.4 8.6 10.5 CORR: 0.919 0.903 0.907 0.973 0.915 0.917 0.947 0.960 0.942 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 102.2 Standard Deviation: 35.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -1.3 0.8 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 MAE: 15.0 14.0 18.3 7.0 14.5 15.4 11.2 10.1 12.7 RMSE: 18.1 19.4 20.4 9.1 18.4 18.3 13.9 11.8 14.9 RMAE: 16.3 14.9 20.5 7.8 15.6 16.6 12.2 11.0 13.8 CORR: 0.860 0.839 0.848 0.967 0.855 0.858 0.924 0.945 0.908 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 116.2 Standard Deviation: 35.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 MAE: 11.6 10.9 14.5 8.2 11.2 12.2 9.8 9.5 10.8 RMSE: 14.6 15.1 17.2 11.3 14.7 14.9 13.0 12.2 13.5 RMAE: 11.7 11.4 13.8 8.2 11.5 12.2 10.2 9.7 11.0 CORR: 0.909 0.902 0.881 0.946 0.908 0.905 0.930 0.937 0.923 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 110.1 Standard Deviation: 35.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -2.9 -4.7 1.6 -1.5 -2.5 -0.4 0.8 -1.5 MAE: 20.9 19.8 23.7 18.1 20.3 21.1 19.2 19.0 20.1 RMSE: 26.1 27.8 28.7 23.7 26.5 26.6 24.5 23.9 25.0 RMAE: 23.4 21.0 25.4 21.4 22.2 23.0 21.5 21.9 22.3 CORR: 0.676 0.660 0.634 0.745 0.671 0.666 0.722 0.742 0.712 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 93.2 Standard Deviation: 35.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -4.3 -0.2 2.9 -2.2 -1.5 -0.5 1.4 -0.4 MAE: 12.8 11.9 16.3 11.0 12.4 13.4 11.4 11.4 12.4 RMSE: 16.3 17.3 18.8 14.3 16.5 16.7 15.0 14.6 15.5 RMAE: 15.1 13.6 21.5 14.2 14.4 16.0 13.8 14.2 15.1 CORR: 0.889 0.883 0.849 0.919 0.887 0.884 0.907 0.913 0.901 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 73.3 Standard Deviation: 31.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 1.0 3.5 0.6 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.3 1.3 MAE: 13.2 12.6 18.4 11.1 12.9 14.1 12.0 11.7 12.8 RMSE: 16.0 16.8 20.4 14.6 16.2 16.4 14.8 14.3 15.2 RMAE: 23.5 23.1 32.8 21.9 23.3 25.7 22.2 21.8 23.9 CORR: 0.857 0.842 0.775 0.884 0.853 0.852 0.881 0.890 0.875 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 52.2 Standard Deviation: 28.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -0.8 4.4 1.1 -0.4 1.2 0.1 0.6 1.2 MAE: 13.2 11.8 19.0 10.2 12.5 14.0 10.4 9.9 12.1 RMSE: 16.6 18.0 21.2 12.7 17.0 17.1 13.8 12.7 14.7 RMAE: 33.5 27.5 54.5 26.4 30.5 36.9 24.1 23.0 30.8 CORR: 0.813 0.776 0.697 0.896 0.804 0.803 0.878 0.898 0.863 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 32.5 Standard Deviation: 25.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.2 1.4 3.3 0.5 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.4 1.4 MAE: 10.0 9.4 15.3 7.2 9.6 11.1 8.5 8.2 9.9 RMSE: 13.9 14.8 18.2 10.3 14.2 14.6 12.3 11.5 13.0 RMAE: 42.7 54.4 62.2 30.3 46.9 49.3 40.7 34.7 43.7 CORR: 0.831 0.809 0.703 0.913 0.824 0.816 0.873 0.890 0.860 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 18.6 Standard Deviation: 18.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.5 -1.5 2.1 0.2 -0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.4 0.3 MAE: 9.4 8.3 11.6 4.5 8.8 9.3 7.0 6.4 7.8 RMSE: 11.2 11.7 13.1 5.5 11.2 11.2 8.6 7.5 9.2 RMAE: 122.0 92.3 142.7 72.8 107.1 115.6 90.7 90.2 100.7 CORR: 0.799 0.780 0.735 0.956 0.802 0.798 0.894 0.921 0.871 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------