Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 25.3 Standard Deviation: 16.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.8 MAE: 12.0 11.4 14.6 7.6 11.7 12.5 9.5 8.7 10.7 RMSE: 14.4 15.3 16.4 9.8 14.6 14.5 12.2 11.2 12.7 RMAE: 155.1 171.6 143.8 92.3 163.4 156.1 134.1 115.7 136.0 CORR: 0.523 0.450 0.306 0.813 0.502 0.514 0.702 0.767 0.686 Pval: 0.001 0.004 0.055 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 41.5 Standard Deviation: 21.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 2.4 -1.5 1.6 1.2 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.6 MAE: 14.4 14.0 18.2 10.8 14.2 14.8 12.7 12.1 13.1 RMSE: 18.0 18.4 21.5 14.2 18.1 18.6 16.2 15.4 16.9 RMAE: 59.8 63.5 72.2 44.1 61.6 63.0 54.9 50.5 56.0 CORR: 0.518 0.505 0.413 0.741 0.514 0.491 0.642 0.687 0.597 Pval: 0.001 0.001 0.008 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 61.6 Standard Deviation: 23.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 3.3 0.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.4 0.5 1.1 MAE: 15.8 15.0 17.0 11.3 15.3 15.7 13.3 12.5 13.8 RMSE: 19.0 20.0 20.2 14.1 19.3 19.3 16.6 15.3 17.1 RMAE: 33.3 34.9 35.6 25.3 34.0 34.3 29.5 26.9 30.4 CORR: 0.570 0.525 0.508 0.794 0.558 0.558 0.712 0.767 0.684 Pval: 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 82.7 Standard Deviation: 26.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -2.1 0.1 0.4 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 0.2 -0.4 MAE: 16.1 15.3 19.9 11.1 15.5 16.4 13.4 12.8 14.4 RMSE: 20.9 22.3 23.9 14.8 21.3 21.2 17.5 16.1 18.3 RMAE: 22.4 20.0 26.9 16.9 20.9 22.1 18.7 18.7 20.0 CORR: 0.616 0.570 0.529 0.833 0.603 0.606 0.764 0.812 0.730 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 102.2 Standard Deviation: 35.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.6 1.6 0.2 -0.8 0.0 -0.5 0.1 0.0 MAE: 21.5 19.8 26.9 17.6 20.4 22.1 18.5 18.1 19.9 RMSE: 27.3 30.0 31.3 21.8 28.0 27.8 24.0 22.1 24.6 RMAE: 24.7 24.2 29.9 22.7 24.2 25.6 22.8 22.2 23.8 CORR: 0.638 0.549 0.536 0.790 0.614 0.622 0.748 0.803 0.729 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 116.2 Standard Deviation: 35.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 1.4 7.6 1.4 0.7 3.0 0.9 0.7 2.6 MAE: 22.0 21.5 27.3 14.8 21.6 23.0 18.3 17.5 19.8 RMSE: 28.7 29.6 34.3 21.7 29.0 29.6 24.7 23.1 26.0 RMAE: 21.5 21.4 27.1 15.7 21.3 22.8 18.4 17.7 19.9 CORR: 0.570 0.549 0.469 0.786 0.564 0.549 0.721 0.775 0.677 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 110.1 Standard Deviation: 35.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 1.8 5.3 -1.1 0.9 2.4 0.2 -0.5 1.5 MAE: 23.2 22.5 31.4 14.9 22.8 24.9 19.0 18.0 21.5 RMSE: 29.0 30.1 35.6 21.5 29.3 29.8 25.1 23.5 26.4 RMAE: 25.7 25.1 33.8 16.0 25.3 27.5 21.2 19.8 23.7 CORR: 0.576 0.561 0.415 0.796 0.571 0.556 0.709 0.761 0.671 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 93.2 Standard Deviation: 35.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 2.9 2.3 -1.2 1.5 1.8 0.6 -0.6 1.0 MAE: 23.4 22.8 24.7 21.1 23.1 23.4 20.8 19.9 21.0 RMSE: 29.5 30.2 30.8 26.3 29.7 29.7 25.5 24.4 26.2 RMAE: 33.4 34.2 34.5 32.4 33.8 33.9 30.9 29.3 31.1 CORR: 0.556 0.536 0.533 0.686 0.551 0.553 0.714 0.741 0.683 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 73.3 Standard Deviation: 31.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.3 0.0 0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 MAE: 20.2 19.1 22.7 15.0 19.6 20.6 16.4 15.6 17.8 RMSE: 25.1 26.0 26.5 20.6 25.3 25.2 21.4 20.2 22.2 RMAE: 36.9 33.2 41.7 27.5 35.0 37.1 29.5 28.5 32.3 CORR: 0.590 0.584 0.528 0.752 0.588 0.587 0.735 0.782 0.718 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 52.2 Standard Deviation: 28.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -0.7 11.0 -1.4 -0.4 3.4 -0.7 -0.7 2.2 MAE: 18.7 17.9 21.7 17.3 18.3 18.9 16.8 16.8 17.4 RMSE: 24.0 24.3 27.2 21.4 24.0 24.3 21.7 21.1 22.3 RMAE: 52.1 48.9 78.0 50.3 50.5 58.9 47.1 47.0 53.8 CORR: 0.543 0.532 0.492 0.664 0.539 0.537 0.657 0.684 0.639 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 32.5 Standard Deviation: 25.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -7.6 8.6 0.2 -3.8 0.3 -2.5 0.1 0.3 MAE: 20.3 18.9 22.6 13.6 19.4 20.2 16.8 15.9 18.0 RMSE: 24.2 26.9 26.5 18.8 24.9 24.3 21.4 19.9 21.9 RMAE: 137.5 86.8 219.3 65.3 111.6 146.3 93.0 96.6 123.6 CORR: 0.256 0.161 0.139 0.662 0.214 0.241 0.585 0.676 0.585 Pval: 0.116 0.329 0.398 0.000 0.190 0.140 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 18.6 Standard Deviation: 18.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -5.3 5.7 0.3 -2.7 0.1 -1.7 0.2 0.2 MAE: 14.4 13.3 16.8 12.8 13.8 14.5 12.9 12.9 13.5 RMSE: 17.7 19.2 19.5 15.3 18.0 17.8 16.0 15.1 16.3 RMAE: 180.2 140.6 272.2 183.1 159.8 194.9 161.2 173.4 186.2 CORR: 0.313 0.206 0.199 0.579 0.282 0.282 0.559 0.627 0.526 Pval: 0.053 0.209 0.223 0.000 0.082 0.082 0.000 0.000 0.001 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