Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 3.8 Standard Deviation: 8.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -3.8 4.4 0.3 -1.9 0.2 -1.2 0.1 0.2 MAE: 5.4 3.8 8.1 3.0 4.5 5.7 4.0 4.2 5.0 RMSE: 7.8 8.9 9.9 4.8 8.1 7.9 6.5 5.7 6.7 RMAE: 76.1 100.0 103.1 55.5 77.6 81.6 65.1 64.3 74.3 CORR: 0.273 -99.000 0.194 0.802 0.273 0.230 0.773 0.773 0.603 Pval: 0.088 -99.000 0.230 0.000 0.088 0.154 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 4.3 Standard Deviation: 8.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -4.3 6.0 0.3 -2.1 0.6 -1.3 0.1 0.5 MAE: 5.8 4.3 10.6 2.6 5.0 6.7 4.2 4.2 5.6 RMSE: 8.2 9.6 11.7 4.2 8.6 8.6 6.5 5.5 7.0 RMAE: 88.2 100.0 135.6 45.1 77.4 89.8 66.5 66.5 78.5 CORR: 0.288 -99.000 0.004 0.874 0.288 0.118 0.835 0.835 0.690 Pval: 0.072 -99.000 0.983 0.000 0.072 0.469 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 9.4 Standard Deviation: 11.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.4 -0.3 2.4 -0.4 0.0 0.8 -0.1 -0.0 0.5 MAE: 7.8 7.0 8.9 5.3 7.4 7.9 6.5 6.3 7.0 RMSE: 9.4 9.4 10.1 6.7 9.2 9.3 7.8 7.4 8.2 RMAE: 99.5 103.1 130.3 68.0 101.3 110.9 86.5 79.4 95.9 CORR: 0.599 0.597 0.548 0.818 0.609 0.608 0.755 0.796 0.733 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 21.5 Standard Deviation: 14.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.1 1.0 1.5 -1.1 0.5 0.9 -0.0 -0.5 0.4 MAE: 9.0 8.4 11.1 6.1 8.7 9.4 7.7 7.3 8.3 RMSE: 11.2 11.6 13.1 8.8 11.3 11.5 9.8 9.3 10.2 RMAE: 129.4 140.0 122.3 83.8 134.6 129.9 116.7 105.3 116.6 CORR: 0.642 0.623 0.456 0.802 0.637 0.630 0.750 0.787 0.733 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 37.2 Standard Deviation: 19.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.7 -2.6 0.3 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 0.2 -1.0 MAE: 13.9 13.5 14.9 8.9 13.7 13.9 11.4 10.4 12.1 RMSE: 16.7 17.6 18.4 11.4 16.9 17.0 13.9 12.6 14.6 RMAE: 58.7 57.8 55.1 39.9 58.3 56.6 50.0 46.3 50.7 CORR: 0.482 0.394 0.405 0.799 0.460 0.461 0.727 0.783 0.665 Pval: 0.002 0.012 0.009 0.000 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 52.2 Standard Deviation: 21.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -3.1 5.6 0.8 -1.6 0.8 -0.8 0.4 0.8 MAE: 15.4 14.5 19.2 8.0 14.8 16.0 12.1 11.0 13.6 RMSE: 19.5 20.0 21.7 10.9 19.6 19.6 15.5 13.7 16.5 RMAE: 37.8 33.5 46.3 20.0 35.4 38.5 29.5 27.6 33.2 CORR: 0.372 0.339 0.345 0.855 0.363 0.365 0.731 0.807 0.637 Pval: 0.018 0.032 0.029 0.000 0.021 0.021 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 61.2 Standard Deviation: 22.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 2.2 -1.8 0.1 1.1 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 MAE: 18.2 16.9 18.7 13.0 17.5 17.8 15.6 15.0 16.3 RMSE: 20.6 24.1 21.6 15.6 21.6 21.2 18.6 17.2 19.1 RMAE: 36.1 33.4 36.5 26.3 34.8 35.1 31.4 30.4 32.5 CORR: 0.389 0.366 0.307 0.718 0.378 0.370 0.557 0.662 0.524 Pval: 0.013 0.020 0.054 0.000 0.016 0.019 0.000 0.000 0.001 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 65.0 Standard Deviation: 28.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.9 5.6 -2.2 -1.0 1.2 -1.4 -1.1 0.4 MAE: 17.4 16.7 24.9 11.1 17.0 18.5 14.1 12.9 15.3 RMSE: 23.0 23.6 30.0 15.0 23.2 23.8 18.8 16.9 19.8 RMAE: 41.1 40.1 52.7 26.5 40.6 42.3 34.6 31.8 36.5 CORR: 0.577 0.561 0.548 0.851 0.574 0.565 0.784 0.825 0.712 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 64.0 Standard Deviation: 27.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 4.7 -4.2 -0.2 2.3 0.2 1.5 -0.1 0.1 MAE: 17.3 16.1 27.0 11.8 16.7 18.5 13.9 13.0 15.7 RMSE: 21.2 22.7 29.7 15.4 21.6 22.0 18.3 16.9 19.3 RMAE: 38.8 39.3 54.7 26.9 39.0 41.9 32.5 29.7 35.8 CORR: 0.625 0.592 0.259 0.825 0.615 0.588 0.744 0.791 0.713 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.107 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 48.9 Standard Deviation: 26.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -2.6 6.1 -0.1 -1.3 1.2 -0.9 -0.0 0.8 MAE: 17.5 16.6 23.2 12.6 17.0 18.7 14.6 13.9 16.1 RMSE: 21.7 22.1 26.4 15.7 21.8 22.2 18.6 17.4 19.6 RMAE: 49.5 41.6 72.6 36.9 45.5 53.6 39.9 39.8 46.6 CORR: 0.572 0.566 0.307 0.806 0.570 0.547 0.715 0.765 0.687 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.054 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 28.0 Standard Deviation: 21.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -3.7 8.5 -2.0 -1.8 1.6 -1.9 -1.0 0.7 MAE: 17.6 16.1 19.9 12.5 16.8 17.3 14.1 13.6 15.0 RMSE: 20.9 23.1 23.3 15.5 21.5 21.2 18.2 16.6 18.7 RMAE: 135.4 92.2 215.5 96.0 113.2 145.3 102.2 108.9 127.8 CORR: 0.225 0.124 -0.054 0.702 0.173 0.172 0.564 0.678 0.570 Pval: 0.169 0.454 0.743 0.000 0.293 0.296 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 9.5 Standard Deviation: 14.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -9.5 12.0 2.5 -4.7 0.8 -2.3 1.3 1.3 MAE: 10.9 9.5 17.2 10.3 9.9 11.3 9.6 10.1 10.9 RMSE: 14.4 17.6 19.0 13.5 15.2 14.5 13.8 13.2 13.8 RMAE: 93.3 100.0 244.9 207.4 77.3 115.6 114.8 142.2 135.5 CORR: 0.263 -99.000 0.192 0.457 0.263 0.242 0.498 0.498 0.452 Pval: 0.106 -99.000 0.242 0.003 0.106 0.138 0.001 0.001 0.004 ------------------------------------------------