Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 2.3 Standard Deviation: 6.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.2 -2.3 7.5 -0.0 -1.1 1.8 -0.7 0.1 1.4 MAE: 3.3 2.3 9.1 1.2 2.7 4.4 2.2 2.2 3.6 RMSE: 6.0 6.8 10.8 2.2 6.2 6.4 4.5 3.6 5.1 RMAE: 59.2 100.0 83.1 43.1 74.9 43.0 64.3 46.5 38.5 CORR: 0.386 -99.000 0.257 0.941 0.386 0.315 0.889 0.889 0.705 Pval: 0.032 -99.000 0.162 0.000 0.032 0.084 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 3.8 Standard Deviation: 8.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.1 -3.8 5.1 -0.1 -1.8 0.5 -1.3 0.0 0.3 MAE: 5.2 3.8 9.2 3.6 4.4 6.0 4.2 4.4 5.4 RMSE: 7.7 9.1 10.2 6.6 8.1 8.0 7.3 6.8 7.4 RMAE: 87.0 100.0 66.6 50.4 79.2 75.0 69.6 68.7 68.9 CORR: 0.383 -99.000 0.125 0.607 0.383 0.285 0.604 0.604 0.555 Pval: 0.033 -99.000 0.502 0.000 0.033 0.120 0.000 0.000 0.001 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 10.9 Standard Deviation: 11.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 1.3 -0.7 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.3 MAE: 8.0 7.5 8.6 3.9 7.7 8.0 6.3 5.7 6.8 RMSE: 9.7 10.1 10.2 5.5 9.8 9.7 7.9 6.9 8.3 RMAE: 139.0 138.1 158.2 77.0 138.5 145.1 115.7 105.0 126.3 CORR: 0.565 0.543 0.508 0.884 0.558 0.563 0.751 0.826 0.722 Pval: 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 22.4 Standard Deviation: 15.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -0.9 -2.0 0.4 -0.5 -1.0 -0.2 0.2 -0.6 MAE: 10.2 9.7 11.5 8.3 10.0 10.4 9.3 9.0 9.7 RMSE: 12.4 12.7 13.5 10.9 12.5 12.5 11.6 11.3 11.8 RMAE: 168.3 166.7 138.5 149.2 167.5 156.9 160.8 157.8 154.4 CORR: 0.579 0.555 0.484 0.696 0.573 0.570 0.644 0.669 0.631 Pval: 0.001 0.001 0.006 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 37.3 Standard Deviation: 20.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 0.5 -1.6 -0.9 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 MAE: 14.2 13.7 15.2 9.1 13.9 14.2 11.8 10.9 12.5 RMSE: 17.3 18.2 18.1 11.0 17.5 17.4 14.4 12.9 15.0 RMAE: 65.3 69.4 64.1 36.3 67.4 65.5 54.0 46.7 56.0 CORR: 0.499 0.413 0.479 0.835 0.479 0.491 0.721 0.784 0.670 Pval: 0.004 0.021 0.006 0.000 0.006 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 51.8 Standard Deviation: 21.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.9 10.5 0.4 -0.9 2.9 -0.5 0.2 2.2 MAE: 14.8 13.4 20.6 6.4 14.0 15.9 10.8 9.7 13.1 RMSE: 18.6 19.4 22.8 9.7 18.8 19.0 14.7 12.8 15.8 RMAE: 35.5 31.4 50.5 13.8 33.3 38.6 25.3 22.7 31.4 CORR: 0.468 0.421 0.432 0.887 0.454 0.466 0.737 0.821 0.678 Pval: 0.008 0.018 0.015 0.000 0.010 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 63.1 Standard Deviation: 22.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -3.9 -3.7 1.6 -1.9 -2.5 -0.8 0.8 -1.5 MAE: 16.3 14.7 18.9 7.9 15.5 16.6 12.4 11.3 13.9 RMSE: 19.2 21.3 21.6 10.7 19.8 19.5 15.7 13.7 16.5 RMAE: 30.8 23.5 35.5 15.6 27.2 29.9 22.5 22.0 25.6 CORR: 0.512 0.488 0.318 0.882 0.503 0.503 0.716 0.809 0.694 Pval: 0.003 0.005 0.081 0.000 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 68.6 Standard Deviation: 29.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -4.8 3.3 -1.7 -2.4 -0.5 -2.2 -0.8 -0.8 MAE: 17.5 16.7 22.5 10.8 17.0 18.3 14.1 12.9 15.4 RMSE: 23.1 24.7 27.4 14.1 23.5 23.5 18.7 16.6 19.9 RMAE: 36.1 31.0 48.5 23.9 33.5 37.8 28.8 27.9 32.7 CORR: 0.608 0.558 0.510 0.877 0.595 0.592 0.785 0.836 0.733 Pval: 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 66.7 Standard Deviation: 28.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 1.5 -5.8 -0.6 0.7 -1.4 0.3 -0.3 -1.2 MAE: 17.3 15.5 21.6 11.9 16.4 17.4 14.1 13.4 15.1 RMSE: 20.8 21.9 24.8 15.1 21.1 21.3 17.7 16.4 18.6 RMAE: 36.1 34.4 40.6 27.0 35.2 35.3 31.3 29.8 31.4 CORR: 0.683 0.655 0.616 0.848 0.675 0.674 0.785 0.822 0.757 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 48.8 Standard Deviation: 27.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -0.9 10.3 0.6 -0.5 3.1 -0.1 0.3 2.5 MAE: 15.5 14.3 24.8 11.3 14.8 16.6 12.1 11.5 14.5 RMSE: 20.8 21.9 28.1 13.8 21.1 21.4 17.1 15.6 18.3 RMAE: 41.2 33.9 80.6 28.6 37.2 49.0 30.9 30.4 42.0 CORR: 0.657 0.641 0.354 0.866 0.652 0.642 0.785 0.836 0.765 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.051 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 26.9 Standard Deviation: 21.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -9.0 10.8 -0.3 -4.5 0.6 -3.1 -0.1 0.4 MAE: 16.8 15.4 20.8 8.7 16.1 17.1 13.2 12.2 14.6 RMSE: 20.3 22.9 24.3 12.8 21.0 20.4 16.7 14.6 17.2 RMAE: 142.9 68.5 250.7 119.6 105.7 151.5 108.3 128.5 141.8 CORR: 0.258 0.193 0.091 0.794 0.233 0.252 0.731 0.819 0.743 Pval: 0.162 0.297 0.625 0.000 0.207 0.172 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 7.1 Standard Deviation: 12.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -6.8 11.3 0.8 -3.4 1.5 -2.0 0.4 1.3 MAE: 9.2 7.1 15.8 4.9 8.1 10.1 6.9 7.0 8.8 RMSE: 11.9 13.9 17.2 7.5 12.4 12.1 10.0 9.0 10.5 RMAE: 138.4 88.3 231.7 47.4 110.5 139.5 85.3 92.1 116.0 CORR: 0.245 0.192 0.124 0.793 0.249 0.189 0.737 0.738 0.593 Pval: 0.185 0.300 0.507 0.000 0.177 0.309 0.000 0.000 0.000 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