Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 2.1 Standard Deviation: 6.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.1 -2.1 6.3 0.0 -1.0 1.5 -0.6 0.1 1.1 MAE: 3.2 2.1 7.8 1.3 2.6 3.9 2.2 2.2 3.3 RMSE: 5.8 6.4 10.0 2.3 5.9 6.1 4.3 3.5 4.8 RMAE: 74.4 100.0 179.6 51.2 72.9 79.1 65.2 49.4 65.4 CORR: 0.317 -99.000 0.269 0.923 0.317 0.286 0.901 0.901 0.685 Pval: 0.047 -99.000 0.093 0.000 0.047 0.073 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 3.9 Standard Deviation: 8.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.2 -3.9 6.7 -0.0 -1.9 1.0 -1.3 0.1 0.7 MAE: 5.4 3.9 10.8 2.4 4.6 6.6 3.8 3.8 5.5 RMSE: 7.7 9.1 12.0 5.6 8.1 8.3 6.8 6.2 7.2 RMAE: 79.5 100.0 118.1 33.4 78.6 88.1 55.6 44.5 68.4 CORR: 0.362 -99.000 -0.059 0.737 0.362 0.121 0.691 0.691 0.618 Pval: 0.022 -99.000 0.720 0.000 0.022 0.456 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 11.4 Standard Deviation: 14.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.3 -1.2 4.7 0.2 -0.4 1.3 -0.2 0.3 1.0 MAE: 9.9 9.4 12.0 5.2 9.6 10.2 7.9 7.1 8.6 RMSE: 12.8 13.6 15.2 7.1 13.1 13.1 10.2 8.9 11.0 RMAE: 132.4 103.9 181.1 64.0 117.0 136.6 96.6 93.0 113.8 CORR: 0.456 0.344 0.357 0.872 0.422 0.422 0.767 0.836 0.680 Pval: 0.003 0.030 0.024 0.000 0.007 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 24.6 Standard Deviation: 19.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.1 -3.0 2.2 0.4 -1.5 -0.2 -0.8 0.2 -0.1 MAE: 13.1 12.1 16.4 8.8 12.5 13.1 10.8 10.3 11.6 RMSE: 17.0 17.8 19.9 11.6 17.2 17.2 14.5 13.3 15.1 RMAE: 171.3 152.7 207.9 109.5 161.8 173.1 142.0 137.5 154.9 CORR: 0.487 0.432 0.419 0.804 0.476 0.473 0.701 0.750 0.637 Pval: 0.001 0.005 0.007 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 45.3 Standard Deviation: 26.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 1.4 3.8 -0.8 0.7 1.7 0.2 -0.4 1.1 MAE: 19.0 18.1 26.4 12.1 18.6 20.2 16.1 15.0 17.9 RMSE: 25.7 26.5 31.9 15.6 25.9 26.3 20.8 18.7 22.4 RMAE: 62.1 63.1 83.0 46.6 62.6 65.5 56.3 52.9 59.9 CORR: 0.284 0.200 0.211 0.812 0.258 0.260 0.717 0.777 0.566 Pval: 0.075 0.215 0.190 0.000 0.108 0.105 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 63.8 Standard Deviation: 25.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -5.3 6.2 0.4 -2.6 0.3 -1.6 0.2 0.3 MAE: 19.1 18.3 21.8 12.0 18.6 19.2 15.3 14.1 16.6 RMSE: 24.5 25.7 26.7 15.7 24.8 24.7 20.0 18.2 21.1 RMAE: 39.4 32.7 47.5 26.5 35.9 39.1 31.2 30.8 34.7 CORR: 0.282 0.257 0.201 0.787 0.272 0.265 0.697 0.774 0.611 Pval: 0.078 0.109 0.215 0.000 0.089 0.098 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 80.1 Standard Deviation: 27.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -5.7 1.1 -1.2 -2.8 -1.5 -2.3 -0.6 -1.4 MAE: 21.1 19.6 24.8 11.8 20.2 21.5 16.2 14.8 18.0 RMSE: 24.9 27.2 28.7 15.8 25.5 25.1 20.9 18.6 21.6 RMAE: 32.1 26.2 38.7 17.2 29.1 31.9 23.2 22.0 26.6 CORR: 0.426 0.387 0.144 0.819 0.411 0.417 0.662 0.766 0.656 Pval: 0.006 0.014 0.375 0.000 0.008 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 85.2 Standard Deviation: 32.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -6.2 3.7 -4.0 -3.1 -0.8 -3.4 -2.0 -1.6 MAE: 20.9 20.1 23.6 14.9 20.5 20.9 18.2 17.3 18.9 RMSE: 26.3 27.6 29.3 20.6 26.6 26.7 23.5 22.1 24.2 RMAE: 34.2 29.3 38.4 25.0 31.8 33.3 29.0 28.8 30.5 CORR: 0.569 0.556 0.505 0.775 0.565 0.561 0.691 0.734 0.657 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 79.2 Standard Deviation: 31.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 3.4 -4.3 -0.8 1.7 -0.3 0.9 -0.4 -0.4 MAE: 20.4 19.6 22.9 17.2 20.0 20.6 18.9 18.5 19.6 RMSE: 24.8 25.9 26.8 21.5 25.1 25.0 23.2 22.5 23.6 RMAE: 36.3 37.1 36.9 29.3 36.7 36.3 34.0 32.5 34.4 CORR: 0.617 0.584 0.569 0.733 0.609 0.610 0.679 0.703 0.664 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 56.0 Standard Deviation: 33.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -0.1 -1.1 -2.2 -0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.1 -0.8 MAE: 20.1 19.7 28.4 16.0 19.8 21.0 17.6 16.9 19.2 RMSE: 26.5 27.0 34.4 20.9 26.6 27.3 23.7 22.6 24.8 RMAE: 49.2 48.1 74.2 41.0 48.6 53.2 44.0 42.3 48.8 CORR: 0.596 0.576 0.322 0.778 0.591 0.560 0.702 0.736 0.665 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.043 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 28.5 Standard Deviation: 23.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -3.1 14.6 0.2 -1.6 3.8 -1.0 0.1 2.9 MAE: 18.1 17.1 25.5 11.2 17.4 19.3 15.3 14.5 17.0 RMSE: 22.5 23.9 29.2 15.5 22.8 23.4 19.1 17.6 20.3 RMAE: 137.7 100.9 243.3 122.5 117.9 156.9 118.0 127.6 146.3 CORR: 0.311 0.182 0.069 0.755 0.270 0.227 0.661 0.717 0.596 Pval: 0.051 0.262 0.671 0.000 0.092 0.159 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 8.6 Standard Deviation: 14.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -8.6 11.6 -0.2 -4.3 1.0 -2.9 -0.1 0.7 MAE: 10.3 8.6 17.3 3.9 9.3 11.4 7.3 6.8 9.3 RMSE: 13.7 16.8 18.9 7.9 14.5 14.1 11.4 9.8 11.8 RMAE: 128.9 100.0 207.2 32.5 101.1 122.9 72.0 71.6 96.3 CORR: 0.332 -99.000 0.125 0.840 0.332 0.264 0.785 0.785 0.728 Pval: 0.036 -99.000 0.443 0.000 0.036 0.100 0.000 0.000 0.000 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