Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 26.8 Standard Deviation: 19.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -3.1 6.6 0.1 -1.5 1.2 -1.0 0.0 0.9 MAE: 13.1 12.4 17.7 7.2 12.7 13.7 10.6 9.7 11.7 RMSE: 17.2 17.7 21.4 9.5 17.3 17.6 13.8 12.2 14.8 RMAE: 168.0 158.0 217.2 121.0 162.7 178.9 147.9 142.8 163.0 CORR: 0.475 0.449 0.328 0.874 0.468 0.446 0.738 0.809 0.668 Pval: 0.002 0.004 0.039 0.000 0.002 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 49.2 Standard Deviation: 29.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.3 6.3 -1.2 -0.6 1.7 -0.8 -0.6 1.0 MAE: 20.5 19.4 30.2 12.1 19.9 22.8 16.3 14.9 19.4 RMSE: 27.6 28.4 35.5 14.9 27.8 28.4 21.8 19.1 23.8 RMAE: 61.1 60.0 93.2 36.7 60.4 69.0 49.3 44.3 58.5 CORR: 0.342 0.260 0.232 0.863 0.325 0.300 0.758 0.817 0.605 Pval: 0.031 0.105 0.150 0.000 0.041 0.060 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 75.2 Standard Deviation: 30.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -2.1 8.8 -1.1 -1.1 2.2 -1.1 -0.6 1.4 MAE: 22.1 21.4 27.2 15.4 21.7 23.0 19.1 18.1 20.3 RMSE: 28.1 29.1 32.8 20.2 28.4 28.5 24.6 22.9 25.6 RMAE: 36.5 35.8 46.3 24.8 36.1 38.3 31.7 29.7 33.8 CORR: 0.392 0.311 0.318 0.752 0.379 0.368 0.644 0.689 0.558 Pval: 0.012 0.051 0.046 0.000 0.016 0.019 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 104.8 Standard Deviation: 33.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 3.4 3.4 1.3 1.7 2.3 1.5 0.6 2.0 MAE: 22.3 21.1 24.3 16.1 21.7 22.4 18.7 17.5 19.7 RMSE: 27.4 29.5 29.6 18.9 28.0 27.7 23.3 21.3 24.2 RMAE: 26.0 27.9 28.0 17.8 26.9 27.1 22.9 20.5 23.8 CORR: 0.581 0.492 0.504 0.828 0.560 0.577 0.742 0.787 0.715 Pval: 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 130.5 Standard Deviation: 43.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -8.4 2.9 -0.9 -4.2 -1.8 -3.1 -0.5 -1.6 MAE: 30.3 28.1 31.7 19.5 29.1 29.9 24.9 23.5 26.5 RMSE: 34.4 37.2 36.6 26.3 35.2 34.8 30.0 28.3 31.1 RMAE: 26.1 22.2 27.8 18.5 24.1 25.3 21.5 21.4 23.1 CORR: 0.603 0.550 0.583 0.793 0.589 0.599 0.732 0.765 0.696 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 143.0 Standard Deviation: 41.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -2.4 0.4 -0.5 -1.2 -0.7 -1.0 -0.2 -0.6 MAE: 28.4 25.9 30.6 17.8 27.1 28.0 22.6 21.2 24.4 RMSE: 33.5 36.7 35.1 22.9 34.3 33.8 28.0 25.5 29.0 RMAE: 21.9 19.4 23.5 14.2 20.6 21.4 17.5 16.6 18.9 CORR: 0.594 0.485 0.570 0.835 0.567 0.585 0.760 0.806 0.726 Pval: 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 136.1 Standard Deviation: 41.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -2.6 1.0 -1.9 -1.3 -0.5 -1.5 -0.9 -0.9 MAE: 28.6 26.1 32.3 19.2 27.2 28.6 23.6 22.3 25.0 RMSE: 34.4 36.4 38.1 24.2 34.9 34.7 29.2 26.9 30.3 RMAE: 23.7 21.4 26.5 16.0 22.4 23.5 19.5 18.6 20.7 CORR: 0.569 0.517 0.497 0.817 0.554 0.561 0.725 0.782 0.692 Pval: 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 113.7 Standard Deviation: 39.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 3.5 0.8 -3.2 1.8 1.5 0.1 -1.6 0.3 MAE: 27.3 25.7 33.9 20.0 26.3 28.1 23.0 21.9 24.9 RMSE: 33.6 34.7 40.4 26.0 33.9 34.4 29.7 27.9 30.8 RMAE: 29.3 29.1 36.2 21.9 29.0 30.7 25.5 24.0 27.4 CORR: 0.527 0.493 0.391 0.759 0.520 0.499 0.687 0.729 0.635 Pval: 0.000 0.001 0.013 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 87.7 Standard Deviation: 35.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 1.9 0.3 -1.6 1.0 0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.2 MAE: 24.2 23.0 30.8 20.4 23.5 24.9 22.2 21.9 22.9 RMSE: 29.6 30.3 36.6 26.6 29.8 30.9 28.2 27.6 29.0 RMAE: 37.6 37.8 46.6 31.2 37.5 39.4 35.0 33.7 36.4 CORR: 0.556 0.542 0.183 0.666 0.553 0.510 0.618 0.635 0.600 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.257 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 58.2 Standard Deviation: 34.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 1.2 -1.1 -1.0 0.6 0.0 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 MAE: 20.2 19.5 30.6 18.3 19.8 21.6 18.7 18.4 20.0 RMSE: 27.3 27.9 36.8 23.3 27.4 28.1 25.4 24.6 26.3 RMAE: 48.5 47.9 78.3 45.0 48.2 54.0 45.6 44.6 50.0 CORR: 0.609 0.586 0.330 0.735 0.603 0.575 0.675 0.702 0.647 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.038 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 31.9 Standard Deviation: 26.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -5.4 17.4 1.5 -2.7 4.0 -1.3 0.8 3.4 MAE: 20.9 19.8 28.3 14.7 20.2 22.3 18.0 17.4 20.1 RMSE: 25.1 27.8 32.2 19.2 25.8 26.0 22.1 20.6 23.2 RMAE: 148.5 122.2 284.9 158.6 134.7 183.1 141.6 152.1 176.0 CORR: 0.319 0.089 0.061 0.691 0.250 0.272 0.666 0.691 0.634 Pval: 0.045 0.585 0.709 0.000 0.120 0.090 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 18.3 Standard Deviation: 18.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.8 9.8 0.8 -0.9 2.7 -0.3 0.4 2.2 MAE: 14.4 14.1 18.5 11.5 14.3 15.2 13.0 12.5 13.9 RMSE: 18.0 19.1 21.2 14.6 18.3 18.5 16.3 15.6 16.9 RMAE: 162.2 166.2 258.6 159.2 164.2 191.8 158.9 156.5 180.1 CORR: 0.191 0.035 0.064 0.606 0.119 0.110 0.505 0.563 0.447 Pval: 0.238 0.832 0.697 0.000 0.466 0.501 0.001 0.000 0.004 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