Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 11.4 Standard Deviation: 12.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -6.4 -5.6 -6.4 -3.2 -6.0 -6.1 -5.1 -4.8 -5.4 MAE: 10.8 11.1 11.1 11.4 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.1 RMSE: 14.1 13.9 14.5 12.9 14.0 14.1 13.5 13.3 13.7 RMAE: 143.1 160.3 150.3 151.5 151.7 151.2 151.6 147.3 151.3 CORR: -0.031 -0.085 -0.066 -0.506 -0.058 -0.061 -0.124 -0.158 -0.101 Pval: 0.961 0.892 0.916 0.384 0.927 0.922 0.843 0.799 0.872 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 9.4 Standard Deviation: 10.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -9.3 -9.4 -8.4 -9.4 -9.3 -9.0 -9.4 -9.4 -9.1 MAE: 9.3 9.4 8.4 9.4 9.3 9.0 9.4 9.4 9.1 RMSE: 14.2 14.2 12.4 14.3 14.2 13.6 14.2 14.2 13.8 RMAE: 99.0 98.2 92.2 100.0 98.6 96.5 99.1 99.5 97.4 CORR: -0.093 0.380 0.950 -99.000 0.150 0.954 0.150 -0.093 0.954 Pval: 0.882 0.528 0.013 -99.000 0.809 0.012 0.809 0.882 0.012 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 7.4 Standard Deviation: 11.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 27.5 23.1 23.9 32.1 25.3 24.8 27.6 29.8 26.6 MAE: 29.5 23.7 26.6 32.1 26.6 26.6 27.6 29.8 27.0 RMSE: 34.5 27.0 30.6 34.3 30.6 30.6 31.4 33.7 31.1 RMAE: 374.2 289.9 316.7 273.4 332.1 326.9 305.3 315.6 305.2 CORR: -0.145 0.106 -0.142 0.128 -0.054 -0.086 -0.023 -0.084 -0.063 Pval: 0.816 0.865 0.820 0.837 0.931 0.890 0.971 0.893 0.920 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 18.6 Standard Deviation: 11.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 25.1 35.2 25.8 24.8 30.1 28.7 28.4 24.9 27.7 MAE: 25.1 35.2 25.8 24.8 30.1 28.7 28.4 24.9 27.7 RMSE: 36.5 46.5 45.8 28.7 41.1 42.3 35.9 31.5 37.8 RMAE: 69.6 105.5 33.6 126.9 87.6 69.6 100.7 98.3 83.9 CORR: -0.744 -0.514 -0.681 -0.308 -0.632 -0.661 -0.697 -0.836 -0.703 Pval: 0.149 0.376 0.206 0.614 0.252 0.224 0.190 0.078 0.186 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 31.4 Standard Deviation: 11.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 1.7 2.3 4.6 15.8 2.0 2.9 6.6 8.7 6.1 MAE: 17.7 9.6 25.4 32.2 13.6 17.6 18.5 23.0 20.3 RMSE: 19.2 9.9 27.3 35.0 14.2 18.4 20.1 26.1 21.8 RMAE: 64.6 41.4 85.8 103.8 53.0 64.0 58.4 66.9 65.3 CORR: 0.533 0.878 0.417 0.242 0.710 0.596 0.530 0.374 0.496 Pval: 0.355 0.050 0.485 0.695 0.179 0.288 0.358 0.535 0.395 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 47.4 Standard Deviation: 18.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 75.1 80.8 18.2 17.0 78.0 58.1 57.7 46.1 47.8 MAE: 75.7 84.0 21.7 39.0 79.8 60.5 63.8 54.2 53.3 RMSE: 102.2 111.7 25.5 43.1 106.9 78.3 84.1 70.7 68.3 RMAE: 211.5 233.3 62.3 97.5 222.4 169.0 176.8 149.5 148.2 CORR: -0.417 -0.462 0.314 -0.546 -0.442 -0.416 -0.463 -0.461 -0.443 Pval: 0.484 0.433 0.606 0.341 0.456 0.486 0.432 0.435 0.455 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 44.8 Standard Deviation: 17.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 20.1 -4.7 18.4 24.5 7.7 11.3 13.3 22.3 14.6 MAE: 24.6 28.1 22.0 25.4 21.5 21.7 20.1 23.6 20.6 RMSE: 29.6 29.7 26.5 29.3 25.3 24.6 23.9 28.7 24.3 RMAE: 73.0 72.7 64.9 76.5 56.2 59.1 56.6 71.5 58.7 CORR: 0.180 0.424 0.251 0.391 0.348 0.329 0.356 0.241 0.338 Pval: 0.772 0.477 0.683 0.515 0.566 0.589 0.556 0.696 0.578 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 50.8 Standard Deviation: 27.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 54.8 35.7 49.6 47.3 45.3 46.7 45.9 51.0 46.9 MAE: 68.2 63.0 49.6 60.7 65.6 59.6 62.8 62.7 59.0 RMSE: 93.0 83.0 72.9 87.6 87.6 82.3 86.5 89.1 82.8 RMAE: 308.8 262.0 234.8 316.9 285.4 267.6 294.2 310.3 278.6 CORR: -0.622 -0.594 -0.393 -0.865 -0.608 -0.559 -0.710 -0.765 -0.657 Pval: 0.262 0.291 0.513 0.058 0.276 0.328 0.179 0.132 0.228 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 46.4 Standard Deviation: 21.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 24.5 -19.2 44.6 2.8 2.7 16.7 2.7 13.7 13.2 MAE: 24.5 24.4 45.4 12.1 11.1 17.8 9.9 13.7 14.0 RMSE: 34.2 29.7 65.6 14.5 12.8 25.8 12.3 18.9 19.9 RMAE: 80.0 66.8 144.7 32.5 32.6 57.0 25.4 47.9 46.7 CORR: 0.395 0.741 -0.002 0.764 0.820 0.547 0.830 0.786 0.713 Pval: 0.511 0.152 0.998 0.132 0.089 0.340 0.082 0.115 0.176 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 43.6 Standard Deviation: 22.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -2.0 -20.1 -33.6 -10.0 -11.0 -18.5 -10.7 -6.0 -16.4 MAE: 33.6 43.4 33.6 31.8 33.6 32.1 32.9 32.7 30.7 RMSE: 36.8 45.9 37.4 34.6 39.2 35.2 37.2 35.4 34.4 RMAE: 147.0 169.9 83.6 119.0 138.9 107.1 132.0 133.0 104.7 CORR: -0.961 -0.487 0.698 -0.823 -0.749 -0.534 -0.820 -0.912 -0.700 Pval: 0.009 0.405 0.190 0.087 0.145 0.354 0.089 0.031 0.188 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 26.8 Standard Deviation: 16.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -20.8 -22.7 -17.6 -12.5 -21.7 -20.4 -18.6 -16.6 -18.4 MAE: 20.8 22.7 17.6 17.7 21.7 20.4 18.6 16.6 18.4 RMSE: 26.9 27.8 23.0 24.0 27.3 25.7 25.2 24.4 24.5 RMAE: 79.6 86.1 70.9 65.4 82.8 78.8 66.3 56.3 67.4 CORR: 0.309 0.309 0.536 0.164 0.309 0.404 0.275 0.255 0.364 Pval: 0.613 0.613 0.352 0.792 0.613 0.500 0.654 0.679 0.547 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 17.2 Standard Deviation: 20.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -9.9 -10.2 -7.1 3.5 -10.1 -9.1 -5.6 -3.2 -6.0 MAE: 15.9 18.5 16.8 21.5 17.2 17.1 14.5 13.3 15.1 RMSE: 20.1 23.3 20.3 25.3 21.6 20.9 20.7 19.9 20.0 RMAE: 252.0 209.9 367.6 160.0 230.9 276.5 168.3 156.0 218.2 CORR: 0.558 0.088 0.434 -0.251 0.410 0.425 0.452 0.530 0.481 Pval: 0.328 0.888 0.465 0.684 0.493 0.476 0.444 0.359 0.412 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