Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 8.1 Standard Deviation: 11.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -8.1 -8.1 -8.1 -6.8 -8.1 -8.1 -7.7 -7.5 -7.8 MAE: 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.6 8.1 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.3 RMSE: 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.5 14.0 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.8 RMAE: 100.0 100.0 100.0 96.2 100.0 100.0 98.7 98.1 99.1 CORR: -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -0.057 -99.000 -99.000 -0.057 -0.057 -0.057 Pval: -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 0.903 -99.000 -99.000 0.903 0.903 0.903 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 6.7 Standard Deviation: 10.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -2.7 -1.7 1.5 6.0 -2.2 -0.9 0.6 1.7 0.8 MAE: 7.6 8.3 8.7 9.8 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.6 8.6 RMSE: 12.3 12.1 10.9 12.8 12.2 11.5 11.2 11.1 11.1 RMAE: 73.3 120.6 161.2 185.1 96.0 117.7 125.7 128.2 134.6 CORR: -0.174 -0.215 0.230 0.416 -0.196 -0.022 0.131 0.237 0.157 Pval: 0.710 0.643 0.621 0.353 0.674 0.963 0.780 0.609 0.737 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 5.3 Standard Deviation: 10.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 8.0 8.7 7.9 17.1 8.3 8.2 11.3 12.6 10.4 MAE: 11.0 12.1 9.9 17.1 11.6 11.0 13.0 13.4 12.2 RMSE: 13.1 14.4 12.7 21.0 13.7 13.3 15.8 16.7 14.9 RMAE: 52.6 64.4 22.2 131.5 58.5 46.4 78.0 84.8 64.0 CORR: 0.341 0.213 0.441 0.423 0.276 0.338 0.347 0.397 0.373 Pval: 0.454 0.647 0.321 0.345 0.549 0.458 0.445 0.378 0.409 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 19.0 Standard Deviation: 10.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 4.0 -19.0 -19.0 -11.3 -7.5 -13.3 MAE: 19.0 19.0 19.0 13.9 19.0 19.0 12.3 8.9 14.0 RMSE: 21.7 21.7 21.7 17.6 21.7 21.7 14.7 12.9 16.2 RMAE: 100.0 100.0 100.0 61.5 100.0 100.0 62.4 43.6 71.8 CORR: -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 0.458 -99.000 -99.000 0.458 0.458 0.458 Pval: -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 0.302 -99.000 -99.000 0.302 0.302 0.302 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 36.9 Standard Deviation: 14.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -7.8 -7.6 -5.6 0.8 -7.7 -7.0 -4.9 -3.5 -5.1 MAE: 15.6 14.7 14.9 30.0 15.2 15.1 18.9 21.5 17.9 RMSE: 16.7 16.5 16.9 33.6 16.6 16.6 21.0 23.9 19.7 RMAE: 50.4 44.5 44.9 93.9 47.5 46.6 51.3 59.8 49.7 CORR: 0.541 0.493 0.458 -0.128 0.519 0.501 0.227 0.124 0.286 Pval: 0.210 0.261 0.301 0.784 0.233 0.252 0.625 0.792 0.534 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 50.6 Standard Deviation: 19.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.9 -1.2 0.3 14.5 -1.1 -0.6 4.1 6.8 3.2 MAE: 34.1 36.8 33.2 23.5 35.4 34.7 30.0 28.0 30.7 RMSE: 40.9 43.3 40.7 30.6 42.1 41.6 36.7 33.9 37.6 RMAE: 80.9 87.4 79.1 52.5 84.2 82.5 71.4 65.4 73.0 CORR: 0.331 0.323 0.340 0.687 0.327 0.331 0.442 0.507 0.416 Pval: 0.468 0.480 0.455 0.088 0.474 0.468 0.321 0.245 0.354 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 50.7 Standard Deviation: 22.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 23.1 17.4 22.2 31.3 20.2 20.9 23.9 27.2 23.5 MAE: 32.2 35.1 35.0 37.3 28.6 29.6 31.5 34.8 30.8 RMSE: 35.7 42.3 44.9 42.3 36.3 38.7 37.3 38.8 38.4 RMAE: 81.0 93.9 97.1 99.3 76.3 79.3 84.0 90.2 81.9 CORR: 0.194 0.039 0.139 0.068 0.114 0.126 0.107 0.134 0.122 Pval: 0.677 0.934 0.767 0.885 0.808 0.788 0.820 0.774 0.795 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 51.6 Standard Deviation: 23.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -9.9 -8.1 -12.1 -2.3 -9.0 -10.0 -6.7 -6.1 -8.1 MAE: 41.1 44.1 39.5 43.1 42.6 41.5 41.8 41.0 41.3 RMSE: 51.4 54.0 50.0 50.9 52.7 51.8 51.7 50.7 51.2 RMAE: 128.9 141.0 118.9 143.0 135.0 129.6 133.3 130.7 129.7 CORR: -0.680 -0.713 -0.642 -0.454 -0.698 -0.681 -0.620 -0.566 -0.625 Pval: 0.093 0.072 0.120 0.306 0.081 0.092 0.138 0.185 0.133 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 51.3 Standard Deviation: 20.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 33.7 40.2 30.4 23.4 37.0 34.8 32.5 28.6 31.9 MAE: 34.3 40.2 31.6 30.0 37.1 35.3 32.5 28.6 31.9 RMSE: 44.5 52.4 40.7 40.8 48.5 45.6 43.3 39.6 42.0 RMAE: 101.6 118.6 91.4 97.6 109.9 103.7 101.7 93.3 98.5 CORR: 0.171 0.079 0.275 -0.135 0.122 0.174 0.051 0.025 0.119 Pval: 0.715 0.866 0.550 0.773 0.795 0.709 0.914 0.957 0.799 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 46.6 Standard Deviation: 23.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 2.6 25.8 -9.8 -20.7 14.2 6.2 2.5 -9.1 -0.5 MAE: 16.1 25.8 17.6 23.1 16.6 15.6 16.6 17.6 16.3 RMSE: 17.8 32.5 19.5 27.7 23.4 18.6 18.3 19.9 17.6 RMAE: 52.6 101.3 48.2 49.5 68.4 56.5 54.2 44.3 50.9 CORR: 0.682 0.622 0.695 0.617 0.654 0.676 0.651 0.659 0.667 Pval: 0.091 0.136 0.083 0.140 0.111 0.095 0.113 0.107 0.102 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 30.4 Standard Deviation: 23.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 83.0 94.9 75.9 -3.4 88.9 84.6 58.2 39.8 62.6 MAE: 83.0 94.9 75.9 36.0 88.9 84.6 58.2 43.3 62.6 RMSE: 93.5 105.8 85.4 38.0 99.6 94.8 71.3 56.0 74.6 RMAE: 598.2 686.0 543.8 174.7 642.1 609.3 456.3 349.1 478.2 CORR: -0.329 -0.276 -0.284 -0.446 -0.301 -0.298 -0.359 -0.403 -0.341 Pval: 0.472 0.549 0.536 0.315 0.511 0.516 0.429 0.370 0.454 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 19.7 Standard Deviation: 21.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -5.5 -5.6 -3.2 -13.9 -5.5 -4.8 -8.3 -9.7 -7.0 MAE: 18.8 18.2 17.1 19.5 18.5 18.0 18.9 19.2 18.4 RMSE: 23.3 22.7 22.2 25.6 23.0 22.6 23.4 23.9 22.9 RMAE: 96.8 92.5 100.7 101.5 94.7 96.5 97.0 99.2 97.7 CORR: 0.086 0.161 0.103 0.014 0.124 0.121 0.105 0.064 0.106 Pval: 0.855 0.730 0.826 0.977 0.790 0.797 0.823 0.892 0.821 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