Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 8.1 Standard Deviation: 11.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -6.5 -8.1 -1.7 -5.4 -7.3 -5.4 -6.7 -6.0 -5.4 MAE: 8.7 8.1 10.6 8.7 8.2 8.4 8.3 8.7 8.4 RMSE: 13.7 14.0 12.9 13.2 13.8 13.2 13.5 13.4 13.1 RMAE: 94.6 100.0 233.4 169.9 76.0 92.6 104.8 132.2 105.3 CORR: -0.355 -99.000 -0.290 -0.053 -0.355 -0.362 -0.162 -0.162 -0.242 Pval: 0.434 -99.000 0.528 0.910 0.434 0.425 0.729 0.729 0.601 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 6.7 Standard Deviation: 10.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -2.4 -6.7 -2.6 -3.7 -4.6 -3.9 -4.3 -3.1 -3.9 MAE: 8.8 6.7 6.0 8.2 7.5 7.0 7.7 8.5 7.3 RMSE: 11.8 12.1 9.2 12.3 11.6 10.7 11.8 12.0 11.1 RMAE: 108.9 100.0 104.8 110.2 79.4 87.9 89.7 109.6 93.5 CORR: -0.230 -99.000 0.581 -0.550 -0.230 0.086 -0.381 -0.381 -0.144 Pval: 0.620 -99.000 0.171 0.201 0.620 0.855 0.399 0.399 0.759 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 5.3 Standard Deviation: 10.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 7.2 8.6 5.3 12.2 7.9 7.0 9.3 9.7 8.3 MAE: 11.4 12.8 9.9 17.6 12.1 11.3 13.9 14.5 12.9 RMSE: 14.0 16.2 12.0 23.6 15.0 14.0 17.6 18.4 16.1 RMAE: 39.3 42.9 43.4 69.7 41.1 41.9 50.6 54.5 48.8 CORR: 0.188 0.106 0.281 -0.085 0.143 0.183 0.037 0.006 0.080 Pval: 0.687 0.821 0.541 0.857 0.759 0.694 0.937 0.989 0.864 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 19.0 Standard Deviation: 10.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -2.1 -2.3 1.9 -1.0 -1.4 -0.0 1.0 -0.6 MAE: 4.6 3.9 6.0 5.7 4.1 4.7 4.5 4.8 4.9 RMSE: 5.7 4.8 6.8 7.3 5.0 5.5 5.2 5.9 5.5 RMAE: 28.7 21.1 29.7 26.3 24.4 26.2 24.3 25.8 25.6 CORR: 0.841 0.929 0.824 0.779 0.891 0.877 0.902 0.871 0.888 Pval: 0.018 0.002 0.023 0.039 0.007 0.009 0.005 0.011 0.008 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 36.9 Standard Deviation: 14.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -7.5 -5.2 -11.5 -5.9 -6.3 -8.0 -6.2 -6.7 -7.5 MAE: 11.4 13.1 12.6 11.1 12.3 12.1 11.6 10.9 11.7 RMSE: 14.5 15.1 16.7 15.4 14.5 14.9 14.3 14.3 14.6 RMAE: 29.0 47.7 30.0 29.8 38.3 33.2 34.5 28.0 31.6 CORR: 0.496 0.139 0.538 0.360 0.398 0.466 0.426 0.466 0.473 Pval: 0.257 0.766 0.213 0.427 0.376 0.292 0.340 0.292 0.284 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 50.6 Standard Deviation: 19.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -9.1 -13.6 -1.4 -15.6 -11.4 -8.0 -12.8 -12.3 -9.9 MAE: 16.1 18.4 17.1 19.6 17.3 15.8 17.1 17.4 16.7 RMSE: 21.6 23.8 21.9 26.6 22.5 21.3 23.3 23.5 22.2 RMAE: 30.4 32.3 39.9 34.7 31.3 30.6 30.1 31.4 31.4 CORR: -0.002 0.063 0.034 0.101 0.038 0.041 0.084 0.078 0.070 Pval: 0.996 0.893 0.943 0.829 0.935 0.931 0.858 0.869 0.882 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 50.7 Standard Deviation: 22.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 8.4 1.7 3.1 16.2 5.0 4.4 8.8 12.3 7.3 MAE: 23.4 24.6 20.8 26.6 23.1 22.0 23.7 24.5 22.9 RMSE: 26.5 28.8 23.9 35.3 27.3 25.5 29.2 30.1 26.9 RMAE: 57.8 56.5 48.0 69.6 55.1 52.1 59.0 63.2 56.2 CORR: -0.032 -0.096 -0.078 0.123 -0.071 -0.082 0.023 0.077 0.014 Pval: 0.946 0.837 0.867 0.792 0.880 0.862 0.960 0.869 0.977 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 51.6 Standard Deviation: 23.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 7.7 7.5 3.3 -1.4 7.6 6.1 4.6 3.1 4.3 MAE: 24.4 26.3 21.4 25.9 25.3 23.7 25.2 24.7 24.0 RMSE: 29.9 30.7 27.7 30.3 30.1 28.8 29.5 29.4 28.7 RMAE: 98.6 98.9 84.2 90.4 98.7 93.3 95.4 93.7 92.2 CORR: -0.302 -0.176 -0.154 -0.653 -0.237 -0.231 -0.377 -0.516 -0.345 Pval: 0.510 0.706 0.742 0.112 0.608 0.619 0.405 0.236 0.448 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 51.3 Standard Deviation: 20.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 4.8 6.1 7.2 14.2 5.4 6.0 8.4 9.5 8.1 MAE: 18.6 20.5 22.6 27.0 19.6 19.6 21.7 22.4 21.1 RMSE: 23.5 26.4 28.0 35.6 24.9 25.4 27.8 28.9 27.5 RMAE: 51.0 56.9 57.0 74.7 53.9 51.8 60.2 62.1 56.8 CORR: 0.160 0.090 0.311 0.025 0.122 0.208 0.081 0.075 0.155 Pval: 0.732 0.847 0.497 0.957 0.794 0.654 0.864 0.873 0.740 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 46.6 Standard Deviation: 23.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -11.2 -16.2 -0.5 -8.8 -13.7 -9.3 -12.1 -10.0 -9.2 MAE: 19.2 25.4 20.4 25.5 22.3 18.6 20.5 18.3 17.8 RMSE: 24.6 30.5 22.2 33.0 27.4 23.7 26.8 26.1 23.9 RMAE: 45.2 54.8 66.4 53.1 50.0 46.9 36.4 30.2 36.9 CORR: 0.362 0.223 0.317 0.369 0.280 0.361 0.359 0.392 0.394 Pval: 0.425 0.631 0.488 0.416 0.542 0.427 0.430 0.384 0.382 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 30.4 Standard Deviation: 23.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -4.1 -14.5 11.1 -12.1 -9.3 -2.5 -10.2 -8.1 -4.9 MAE: 20.2 20.0 22.4 25.4 19.8 20.5 17.9 18.2 18.1 RMSE: 23.4 27.4 27.3 31.1 24.8 23.2 24.9 25.0 23.3 RMAE: 88.7 72.8 122.4 65.5 79.5 93.0 57.6 56.3 70.0 CORR: 0.182 0.224 -0.140 0.057 0.215 0.164 0.252 0.131 0.259 Pval: 0.696 0.629 0.765 0.903 0.644 0.725 0.585 0.780 0.574 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 19.7 Standard Deviation: 21.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -13.9 -19.5 -4.3 -14.6 -16.7 -12.6 -16.0 -14.3 -13.1 MAE: 17.3 19.7 17.1 18.9 18.3 16.6 17.6 17.3 16.6 RMSE: 25.4 28.7 22.3 28.0 26.9 24.7 27.1 26.5 25.4 RMAE: 66.3 98.7 190.8 74.3 70.6 87.4 58.5 59.9 77.5 CORR: -0.070 -0.134 -0.315 -0.415 -0.078 -0.469 -0.428 -0.424 -0.608 Pval: 0.881 0.775 0.491 0.354 0.868 0.289 0.338 0.343 0.148 ------------------------------------------------