Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 30.0 Standard Deviation: 20.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -4.9 -1.7 -15.4 7.4 -3.3 -7.3 0.3 1.2 -3.6 MAE: 12.5 10.0 17.6 12.6 11.3 13.4 7.4 8.4 9.7 RMSE: 15.1 12.8 22.1 17.6 13.8 15.8 10.7 10.6 11.9 RMAE: 61.1 55.0 59.6 60.9 58.1 58.6 42.2 44.8 45.7 CORR: 0.729 0.791 0.635 0.727 0.763 0.734 0.859 0.861 0.844 Pval: 0.163 0.111 0.250 0.164 0.134 0.158 0.062 0.061 0.072 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 40.8 Standard Deviation: 19.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.8 -3.8 -8.7 19.6 -1.5 -3.9 5.6 10.2 2.0 MAE: 14.8 16.8 17.6 24.0 15.8 14.8 8.7 10.2 9.4 RMSE: 15.3 16.9 21.1 27.0 15.9 15.6 12.5 14.9 12.3 RMAE: 63.5 60.6 56.1 76.5 62.1 46.4 37.3 37.2 31.0 CORR: 0.667 0.542 0.572 0.814 0.602 0.633 0.823 0.835 0.782 Pval: 0.218 0.345 0.314 0.094 0.283 0.252 0.087 0.078 0.118 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 54.8 Standard Deviation: 25.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 16.9 24.4 99.3 26.1 20.6 46.8 22.4 21.5 41.7 MAE: 47.2 54.7 99.3 27.8 51.0 55.6 40.7 33.7 46.8 RMSE: 51.2 64.5 115.6 33.7 57.7 72.0 47.3 39.5 61.3 RMAE: 105.2 120.9 257.0 69.2 113.0 146.9 95.0 82.1 124.9 CORR: -0.386 -0.326 -0.334 0.591 -0.351 -0.355 -0.175 -0.002 -0.241 Pval: 0.521 0.593 0.583 0.294 0.562 0.557 0.778 0.998 0.696 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 63.4 Standard Deviation: 22.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 6.0 2.5 68.4 52.8 4.3 25.6 20.4 29.4 32.4 MAE: 22.8 27.2 78.2 62.3 25.0 34.1 28.8 39.2 41.1 RMSE: 28.1 32.7 103.2 77.2 29.7 39.0 30.9 42.3 45.9 RMAE: 42.8 57.1 161.4 123.6 50.0 69.2 56.6 76.9 82.8 CORR: 0.280 0.392 -0.536 -0.466 0.350 -0.354 0.006 -0.555 -0.610 Pval: 0.648 0.514 0.352 0.429 0.563 0.559 0.992 0.331 0.274 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 82.2 Standard Deviation: 29.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.7 -6.5 37.9 23.6 -2.9 10.7 5.9 12.2 13.9 MAE: 36.0 34.9 73.5 76.6 34.1 46.5 47.5 53.9 54.0 RMSE: 38.5 38.8 82.0 84.4 37.9 47.5 49.4 56.4 55.9 RMAE: 55.0 46.1 104.7 101.2 48.8 66.6 65.4 75.1 75.2 CORR: -0.553 -0.560 -0.377 -0.404 -0.647 -0.501 -0.499 -0.487 -0.457 Pval: 0.334 0.326 0.531 0.500 0.238 0.390 0.392 0.405 0.439 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 93.8 Standard Deviation: 36.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 142.7 69.0 162.2 28.8 105.8 124.6 80.1 85.7 100.7 MAE: 142.7 71.7 162.2 33.7 105.8 124.6 80.1 85.7 100.7 RMSE: 189.1 97.4 220.2 45.3 143.2 168.8 102.8 106.3 131.8 RMAE: 204.1 104.1 232.8 52.0 153.2 179.7 118.0 125.9 146.7 CORR: -0.366 -0.160 -0.399 0.541 -0.299 -0.345 -0.198 -0.218 -0.298 Pval: 0.545 0.797 0.506 0.347 0.625 0.570 0.749 0.725 0.626 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 88.4 Standard Deviation: 35.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -3.0 -21.3 4.9 7.7 -12.1 -6.5 -5.5 2.3 -2.9 MAE: 26.6 32.1 27.8 21.4 29.3 27.8 21.7 19.5 21.2 RMSE: 32.3 34.5 37.5 23.1 31.8 32.0 24.5 22.7 26.2 RMAE: 38.6 39.0 47.7 35.2 38.8 41.0 28.0 30.0 29.1 CORR: 0.562 0.660 0.598 0.815 0.612 0.607 0.748 0.789 0.698 Pval: 0.324 0.225 0.287 0.093 0.273 0.278 0.146 0.112 0.190 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 77.6 Standard Deviation: 40.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 6.0 47.9 -1.9 32.7 26.9 17.3 28.8 19.3 21.2 MAE: 34.8 47.9 41.7 37.5 40.1 37.8 37.5 36.1 36.5 RMSE: 40.8 57.5 57.2 48.3 43.8 41.2 42.8 39.9 41.1 RMAE: 69.2 125.1 57.6 76.5 95.8 69.8 87.9 72.7 70.3 CORR: 0.589 0.616 0.769 0.744 0.607 0.699 0.695 0.702 0.727 Pval: 0.296 0.269 0.129 0.150 0.277 0.189 0.193 0.186 0.164 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 63.6 Standard Deviation: 30.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -26.2 -34.7 -33.2 -20.1 -30.5 -31.4 -27.0 -23.1 -28.5 MAE: 26.2 39.2 35.3 26.7 32.2 33.3 28.6 23.3 30.3 RMSE: 33.7 44.3 40.9 38.0 37.9 38.4 36.7 34.9 36.9 RMAE: 47.6 73.1 69.0 40.9 59.8 62.8 45.1 31.1 51.1 CORR: 0.724 0.688 0.774 0.227 0.725 0.752 0.623 0.534 0.684 Pval: 0.166 0.199 0.124 0.713 0.166 0.143 0.262 0.354 0.203 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 50.2 Standard Deviation: 30.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -20.8 -45.5 -35.2 -1.2 -33.1 -33.8 -22.5 -11.0 -25.7 MAE: 32.2 45.5 35.5 37.9 36.6 36.3 37.0 35.0 36.7 RMSE: 40.1 55.2 46.7 48.6 46.4 46.2 42.2 41.1 42.6 RMAE: 87.9 91.4 61.8 203.9 69.6 67.0 114.4 145.9 101.2 CORR: -0.462 0.079 0.262 -0.179 -0.177 0.063 -0.209 -0.239 -0.078 Pval: 0.433 0.900 0.670 0.774 0.776 0.919 0.736 0.699 0.901 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 30.2 Standard Deviation: 19.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -20.9 -19.9 -13.1 -6.4 -20.4 -18.0 -15.7 -13.7 -15.1 MAE: 23.9 24.9 24.9 21.2 24.4 24.6 22.9 21.9 23.4 RMSE: 31.4 31.7 28.7 24.9 31.5 30.1 27.2 25.6 27.0 RMAE: 79.7 83.1 86.5 49.1 81.4 83.1 69.3 62.4 73.6 CORR: 0.230 0.230 0.415 0.063 0.230 0.307 0.210 0.184 0.286 Pval: 0.710 0.710 0.487 0.920 0.710 0.615 0.734 0.767 0.641 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 18.6 Standard Deviation: 21.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -2.0 -2.6 0.1 -10.9 -2.3 -1.5 -5.1 -6.4 -3.8 MAE: 19.0 19.6 19.2 17.7 19.3 19.3 18.8 18.4 18.9 RMSE: 23.8 24.3 25.2 21.1 24.0 24.4 21.4 20.5 22.1 RMAE: 590.2 592.8 658.1 153.6 591.5 613.7 445.6 371.9 498.7 CORR: 0.346 0.298 0.345 0.536 0.323 0.331 0.372 0.423 0.363 Pval: 0.568 0.626 0.570 0.351 0.597 0.587 0.538 0.478 0.548 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