Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 27.1 Standard Deviation: 18.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.9 -2.0 -4.3 -6.2 -2.0 -2.7 -3.4 -4.1 -3.6 MAE: 16.8 15.5 19.6 19.1 16.1 17.3 17.1 17.9 17.8 RMSE: 18.6 17.5 21.8 21.6 18.0 19.2 19.1 20.0 19.7 RMAE: 64.2 54.1 83.3 66.9 59.2 67.2 61.8 65.6 67.1 CORR: 0.378 0.422 0.307 0.136 0.399 0.363 0.319 0.268 0.315 Pval: 0.403 0.346 0.503 0.772 0.375 0.424 0.486 0.561 0.491 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 43.6 Standard Deviation: 18.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.9 0.7 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -1.4 -0.8 MAE: 20.7 16.8 26.7 14.9 18.7 21.4 16.8 16.8 19.2 RMSE: 26.2 22.9 32.0 18.2 24.5 26.8 22.0 21.7 24.2 RMAE: 85.4 74.2 106.3 63.8 79.8 88.6 72.8 72.1 81.2 CORR: -0.063 0.046 -0.075 0.321 -0.013 -0.041 0.082 0.100 0.024 Pval: 0.893 0.922 0.872 0.482 0.977 0.931 0.862 0.831 0.960 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 55.9 Standard Deviation: 23.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 19.1 16.5 20.0 14.5 17.8 18.6 16.7 16.8 17.5 MAE: 24.7 29.1 22.3 17.4 26.7 23.7 23.0 20.7 22.0 RMSE: 33.5 37.6 29.4 24.1 35.4 32.3 31.1 28.4 30.1 RMAE: 57.6 65.4 58.1 45.4 60.9 56.2 54.3 51.0 53.3 CORR: 0.331 0.247 0.485 0.600 0.285 0.350 0.377 0.463 0.411 Pval: 0.469 0.594 0.270 0.154 0.536 0.441 0.404 0.295 0.360 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 69.7 Standard Deviation: 23.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -16.9 -17.0 -14.9 -10.4 -17.0 -16.3 -14.8 -13.7 -14.8 MAE: 39.2 36.4 40.4 35.8 37.8 38.7 37.1 37.5 38.0 RMSE: 41.9 40.0 43.3 40.8 40.9 41.5 40.6 41.1 41.1 RMAE: 64.1 58.6 67.9 57.9 61.3 63.5 60.2 61.0 62.1 CORR: 0.093 0.130 0.082 0.032 0.112 0.102 0.085 0.063 0.084 Pval: 0.843 0.781 0.862 0.946 0.812 0.829 0.856 0.894 0.857 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 88.4 Standard Deviation: 27.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 18.4 19.4 18.2 16.7 18.9 18.7 18.2 17.5 18.2 MAE: 41.4 43.3 38.2 43.4 42.3 41.0 42.6 42.3 41.5 RMSE: 52.1 52.2 49.5 52.1 52.1 51.2 51.8 51.8 51.1 RMAE: 67.5 68.3 63.7 66.9 67.9 66.5 67.4 67.0 66.5 CORR: -0.485 -0.391 -0.459 -0.312 -0.439 -0.446 -0.398 -0.398 -0.413 Pval: 0.270 0.386 0.300 0.495 0.325 0.316 0.377 0.376 0.357 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 101.9 Standard Deviation: 37.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 24.0 23.4 22.0 27.8 23.7 23.2 25.1 25.9 24.3 MAE: 64.2 58.5 65.6 58.7 61.4 62.8 60.5 61.5 61.8 RMSE: 77.3 73.6 77.8 72.8 75.4 76.2 74.4 74.9 75.2 RMAE: 86.5 80.8 86.9 80.6 83.7 84.8 82.6 83.5 83.7 CORR: -0.352 -0.390 -0.326 -0.295 -0.371 -0.355 -0.348 -0.327 -0.342 Pval: 0.438 0.386 0.475 0.521 0.413 0.435 0.445 0.475 0.453 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 97.3 Standard Deviation: 42.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 6.6 8.2 -3.5 29.4 7.4 3.8 14.7 18.0 10.2 MAE: 44.6 44.5 45.0 60.3 44.5 43.6 48.7 50.9 47.0 RMSE: 50.9 51.0 52.9 69.6 51.0 51.2 55.9 58.9 54.5 RMAE: 62.8 63.1 60.0 96.3 63.0 60.9 73.5 78.6 69.3 CORR: 0.071 0.094 0.077 -0.154 0.083 0.081 -0.012 -0.060 0.011 Pval: 0.879 0.842 0.870 0.742 0.860 0.863 0.980 0.898 0.981 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 82.0 Standard Deviation: 39.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 9.1 8.9 1.8 3.4 9.0 6.6 7.1 6.2 5.8 MAE: 40.0 38.9 39.2 56.2 39.4 39.3 45.0 48.1 43.6 RMSE: 45.8 43.8 49.8 64.1 44.7 45.7 50.5 54.1 49.4 RMAE: 82.6 82.4 64.6 117.2 82.5 76.5 94.0 99.9 86.7 CORR: -0.057 -0.048 0.058 -0.662 -0.053 0.002 -0.391 -0.487 -0.238 Pval: 0.904 0.919 0.901 0.105 0.911 0.997 0.385 0.267 0.608 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 71.0 Standard Deviation: 33.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.7 -2.6 -5.5 -7.9 -2.2 -3.3 -4.1 -4.8 -4.4 MAE: 32.4 32.6 29.7 47.5 32.5 31.6 37.0 39.5 34.6 RMSE: 38.4 38.9 39.0 53.7 38.7 38.2 43.1 45.4 41.2 RMAE: 62.2 62.0 43.7 92.5 62.1 55.9 71.4 76.4 63.3 CORR: -0.098 -0.117 0.160 -0.695 -0.108 0.010 -0.404 -0.516 -0.232 Pval: 0.835 0.803 0.732 0.083 0.818 0.983 0.369 0.236 0.616 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 57.1 Standard Deviation: 30.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -19.8 -25.9 -17.8 -23.4 -22.8 -21.2 -23.0 -21.6 -21.7 MAE: 24.7 29.3 22.5 27.4 26.7 25.3 26.9 25.7 25.8 RMSE: 35.2 42.6 32.8 38.3 38.8 36.8 38.6 36.6 37.1 RMAE: 39.8 40.2 37.8 46.1 39.3 38.8 41.6 42.3 40.6 CORR: 0.385 0.091 0.459 0.323 0.247 0.324 0.275 0.356 0.326 Pval: 0.394 0.846 0.301 0.480 0.593 0.478 0.550 0.433 0.476 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 38.4 Standard Deviation: 24.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 6.8 2.6 4.2 -1.3 4.7 4.5 2.7 2.8 3.1 MAE: 31.9 30.7 32.6 26.5 31.3 31.7 29.0 28.1 29.9 RMSE: 38.2 37.1 39.1 31.2 37.5 37.9 34.5 33.4 35.4 RMAE: 55.8 52.7 62.5 49.8 54.2 57.0 50.4 49.2 53.4 CORR: -0.187 -0.135 -0.211 0.220 -0.161 -0.180 -0.032 0.023 -0.081 Pval: 0.688 0.774 0.650 0.635 0.730 0.699 0.945 0.961 0.863 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 25.0 Standard Deviation: 20.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 9.2 5.6 12.8 -3.4 7.4 9.2 3.8 2.9 6.0 MAE: 21.1 20.9 21.0 18.5 21.0 21.0 19.2 18.7 19.7 RMSE: 28.2 26.3 29.3 20.0 27.2 27.6 23.8 22.8 24.8 RMAE: 517.4 496.2 477.6 240.5 506.8 497.1 413.4 373.2 429.4 CORR: 0.095 0.089 0.126 0.336 0.092 0.105 0.155 0.192 0.147 Pval: 0.840 0.849 0.788 0.461 0.844 0.822 0.740 0.681 0.753 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