Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 27.1 Standard Deviation: 18.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -5.9 -6.6 -3.0 -4.7 -6.3 -5.2 -5.7 -5.3 -5.1 MAE: 16.4 17.5 18.6 20.3 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.3 18.2 RMSE: 20.1 22.0 20.8 22.6 21.0 20.7 21.1 20.8 20.9 RMAE: 68.0 70.3 72.4 68.8 69.1 70.2 69.0 68.4 69.9 CORR: 0.186 0.102 -0.188 -0.177 0.141 0.069 0.050 0.010 0.007 Pval: 0.690 0.828 0.687 0.704 0.764 0.884 0.916 0.983 0.989 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 43.6 Standard Deviation: 18.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -11.6 -12.4 -23.3 -14.0 -12.0 -15.7 -12.6 -12.8 -15.3 MAE: 15.8 14.9 25.2 21.5 15.4 18.3 16.1 17.8 17.7 RMSE: 18.4 17.4 30.1 23.4 17.8 21.7 17.9 18.9 20.6 RMAE: 33.6 35.0 59.8 62.9 34.3 41.9 35.3 44.4 35.5 CORR: 0.610 0.732 0.356 0.338 0.680 0.570 0.750 0.649 0.649 Pval: 0.146 0.061 0.433 0.458 0.093 0.182 0.052 0.115 0.115 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 55.9 Standard Deviation: 23.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -2.5 -1.7 -7.9 2.4 -2.1 -4.0 -0.6 -0.0 -2.4 MAE: 19.6 20.5 21.2 14.8 20.0 19.6 14.9 13.4 15.8 RMSE: 23.3 23.4 25.5 17.9 23.2 23.3 16.9 15.2 18.4 RMAE: 42.5 46.8 42.1 26.9 44.5 41.2 32.6 29.7 33.7 CORR: 0.292 0.328 0.178 0.741 0.314 0.297 0.720 0.784 0.659 Pval: 0.525 0.472 0.702 0.057 0.493 0.518 0.068 0.037 0.107 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 69.7 Standard Deviation: 23.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 6.5 0.3 13.7 4.7 3.4 6.8 3.8 5.6 6.3 MAE: 20.7 19.5 24.2 22.5 19.2 20.5 20.3 21.6 20.7 RMSE: 23.9 23.3 30.0 27.2 23.2 24.4 24.4 25.5 24.8 RMAE: 34.4 31.1 40.7 37.5 30.7 33.2 33.0 35.9 33.6 CORR: 0.320 0.328 0.427 0.028 0.331 0.381 0.237 0.177 0.315 Pval: 0.484 0.473 0.339 0.953 0.469 0.399 0.609 0.704 0.491 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 88.4 Standard Deviation: 27.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -4.7 -5.8 12.4 -5.0 -5.3 0.6 -5.2 -4.9 -0.8 MAE: 24.0 23.9 25.4 25.4 23.9 22.3 23.1 22.8 22.4 RMSE: 29.9 30.2 33.9 31.7 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.6 RMAE: 35.7 35.1 43.7 36.6 35.4 35.5 34.5 34.3 35.2 CORR: 0.063 0.128 -0.080 0.289 0.099 0.043 0.192 0.217 0.145 Pval: 0.893 0.784 0.865 0.529 0.833 0.926 0.680 0.640 0.757 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 101.9 Standard Deviation: 37.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -5.3 -15.1 -9.9 -7.9 -10.2 -10.1 -9.4 -6.6 -9.5 MAE: 32.8 36.2 33.3 39.9 33.7 33.5 32.8 34.9 32.9 RMSE: 39.9 42.8 38.3 49.4 40.9 39.8 42.9 44.0 41.3 RMAE: 37.3 38.3 35.4 44.2 36.8 36.3 36.0 39.1 35.9 CORR: -0.123 -0.207 0.175 -0.364 -0.182 -0.050 -0.348 -0.327 -0.285 Pval: 0.793 0.655 0.708 0.422 0.696 0.916 0.445 0.474 0.536 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 97.3 Standard Deviation: 42.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.3 -7.4 13.4 -10.9 -3.9 1.9 -6.2 -5.6 -1.3 MAE: 40.0 39.7 41.4 47.5 39.8 40.4 38.8 40.4 39.5 RMSE: 44.9 47.2 46.1 53.0 45.8 45.1 46.1 46.7 44.9 RMAE: 52.5 47.9 59.6 64.6 50.2 53.3 49.8 53.6 52.2 CORR: 0.084 0.094 0.207 0.002 0.090 0.133 0.065 0.039 0.110 Pval: 0.858 0.841 0.656 0.996 0.848 0.777 0.890 0.933 0.814 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 82.0 Standard Deviation: 39.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 2.7 3.0 23.1 0.3 2.8 9.6 2.0 1.5 7.3 MAE: 38.6 37.4 43.7 37.5 38.0 39.4 36.6 36.9 37.2 RMSE: 42.1 40.9 51.0 38.2 41.5 43.5 39.7 39.3 41.4 RMAE: 75.2 73.3 93.9 74.7 74.2 80.4 73.1 73.6 77.0 CORR: 0.035 0.103 0.064 0.259 0.068 0.067 0.141 0.164 0.110 Pval: 0.941 0.827 0.892 0.575 0.885 0.887 0.763 0.725 0.815 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 71.0 Standard Deviation: 33.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -10.8 -13.5 -2.2 -1.1 -12.1 -8.8 -8.5 -6.0 -6.9 MAE: 30.7 34.6 29.6 42.0 32.7 29.8 34.5 36.0 32.9 RMSE: 36.0 39.5 32.5 45.7 37.7 35.1 39.1 39.6 36.8 RMAE: 48.9 54.1 55.5 80.6 51.5 49.8 59.0 64.2 57.5 CORR: 0.131 -0.001 0.243 -0.443 0.060 0.127 -0.164 -0.246 -0.086 Pval: 0.780 0.999 0.600 0.319 0.899 0.787 0.726 0.594 0.855 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 57.1 Standard Deviation: 30.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -22.2 -26.2 -11.2 -26.5 -24.2 -19.9 -24.9 -24.3 -21.5 MAE: 28.6 33.1 23.8 35.3 30.7 27.3 30.8 30.0 28.4 RMSE: 37.6 42.5 30.7 43.1 40.0 35.8 39.9 39.2 36.7 RMAE: 48.0 49.8 56.2 85.2 47.0 48.1 55.0 59.8 54.1 CORR: 0.178 0.090 0.315 0.051 0.126 0.203 0.123 0.131 0.194 Pval: 0.703 0.847 0.491 0.913 0.788 0.663 0.793 0.779 0.677 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 38.4 Standard Deviation: 24.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -9.4 -22.5 1.0 -18.2 -16.0 -10.3 -16.7 -13.8 -12.3 MAE: 21.9 25.2 19.8 40.6 23.5 21.9 24.1 26.8 22.7 RMSE: 26.5 32.8 25.5 44.7 29.0 26.6 31.1 32.2 28.4 RMAE: 51.9 58.6 43.7 97.0 55.2 50.2 48.4 53.0 46.2 CORR: 0.104 0.227 -0.132 -0.125 0.171 0.102 -0.025 -0.101 -0.048 Pval: 0.825 0.624 0.778 0.790 0.715 0.828 0.958 0.829 0.919 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 25.0 Standard Deviation: 20.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -10.4 -10.3 -0.5 -17.3 -10.3 -7.0 -12.7 -13.8 -9.6 MAE: 19.5 17.4 18.9 21.3 18.5 18.2 19.4 20.4 19.0 RMSE: 24.4 23.4 25.7 29.4 23.9 23.8 25.5 26.7 24.7 RMAE: 200.3 203.6 304.4 113.9 202.0 234.1 172.6 157.1 204.1 CORR: -0.064 0.124 -0.100 -0.308 0.035 -0.032 -0.089 -0.206 -0.095 Pval: 0.892 0.791 0.830 0.501 0.940 0.946 0.850 0.658 0.839 ------------------------------------------------