Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 1.0 Standard Deviation: 0.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.3 -0.3 -0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 MAE: 0.6 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 RMSE: 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 RMAE: 46.9 24.7 67.5 72.5 33.5 44.8 46.5 59.7 51.7 CORR: 0.227 0.793 -0.404 -0.353 0.572 0.110 0.187 -0.152 -0.067 Pval: 0.714 0.109 0.500 0.561 0.313 0.861 0.763 0.807 0.915 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 1.0 Standard Deviation: 0.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 MAE: 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 RMSE: 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 RMAE: 72.0 82.3 63.1 81.1 77.2 72.5 78.5 76.6 74.6 CORR: -0.277 -0.727 0.063 0.227 -0.507 -0.215 -0.428 -0.152 -0.179 Pval: 0.652 0.164 0.919 0.713 0.384 0.728 0.472 0.807 0.773 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 0.6 Standard Deviation: 0.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.4 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.2 MAE: 1.7 1.9 2.0 0.9 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.5 RMSE: 2.0 2.2 2.5 1.1 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.2 1.7 RMAE: 120.0 172.2 142.1 56.7 146.1 144.8 83.0 38.4 97.7 CORR: -0.083 -0.074 -0.231 0.169 -0.078 -0.140 -0.028 0.163 -0.130 Pval: 0.895 0.906 0.709 0.785 0.900 0.823 0.964 0.794 0.835 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 1.8 Standard Deviation: 1.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 2.5 4.0 3.3 0.1 3.3 3.3 2.2 1.3 2.5 MAE: 2.5 4.0 3.3 0.6 3.3 3.3 2.2 1.3 2.5 RMSE: 3.6 5.5 5.1 0.7 4.5 4.7 3.0 1.7 3.5 RMAE: 73.1 111.3 79.3 33.7 92.2 87.9 63.2 39.2 67.2 CORR: -0.761 -0.844 -0.790 0.869 -0.817 -0.806 -0.760 -0.126 -0.775 Pval: 0.135 0.072 0.112 0.056 0.092 0.099 0.136 0.839 0.123 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 2.8 Standard Deviation: 1.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 MAE: 1.4 1.0 1.5 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 RMSE: 1.7 1.3 1.6 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 RMAE: 70.0 55.1 68.5 30.9 62.5 64.5 37.4 30.3 45.2 CORR: 0.653 0.753 0.661 0.910 0.705 0.695 0.834 0.872 0.789 Pval: 0.232 0.142 0.224 0.032 0.183 0.193 0.079 0.054 0.112 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 4.2 Standard Deviation: 2.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 1.0 4.0 -0.6 0.0 2.5 1.4 1.7 0.5 1.1 MAE: 1.6 4.2 1.7 0.9 2.9 1.9 2.0 1.0 1.5 RMSE: 2.0 6.0 1.9 1.2 3.9 2.4 2.8 1.3 1.9 RMAE: 57.2 172.6 52.1 33.1 114.9 72.6 80.0 38.5 55.2 CORR: 0.592 -0.366 0.748 0.873 -0.152 0.459 0.320 0.827 0.690 Pval: 0.293 0.544 0.146 0.053 0.807 0.436 0.599 0.084 0.197 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 4.4 Standard Deviation: 2.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -2.0 -2.2 -2.6 -0.7 -2.1 -2.3 -1.6 -1.4 -1.9 MAE: 2.4 2.4 2.9 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 RMSE: 3.0 3.0 3.3 2.2 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.8 RMAE: 56.5 56.6 68.2 39.7 56.6 60.4 46.4 45.5 48.6 CORR: 0.462 0.484 0.446 0.346 0.473 0.469 0.444 0.420 0.451 Pval: 0.433 0.408 0.452 0.569 0.421 0.425 0.454 0.482 0.446 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 4.4 Standard Deviation: 2.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 3.2 2.2 3.9 0.8 2.7 3.1 2.1 2.0 2.5 MAE: 4.0 3.5 6.1 1.9 3.7 4.5 3.0 2.8 3.8 RMSE: 6.2 5.3 8.6 2.3 5.7 6.7 4.5 4.2 5.5 RMAE: 180.8 154.2 252.2 78.1 167.1 195.5 135.8 126.6 164.7 CORR: -0.483 -0.483 -0.478 0.081 -0.483 -0.481 -0.438 -0.402 -0.457 Pval: 0.410 0.410 0.415 0.897 0.410 0.412 0.460 0.502 0.439 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 4.0 Standard Deviation: 1.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.6 -1.0 3.2 2.2 -0.2 0.9 0.6 1.4 1.2 MAE: 1.5 2.5 4.2 2.2 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 RMSE: 1.6 3.2 5.0 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.0 RMAE: 43.9 67.9 141.3 87.3 39.2 57.0 45.9 61.7 62.6 CORR: 0.445 0.189 -0.132 0.178 0.275 0.294 0.397 0.619 0.356 Pval: 0.453 0.761 0.833 0.775 0.655 0.631 0.508 0.266 0.556 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 3.4 Standard Deviation: 1.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.0 -2.2 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 -1.6 MAE: 3.2 3.1 2.0 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 RMSE: 3.7 3.2 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.0 RMAE: 163.3 108.6 62.1 116.4 136.0 111.3 129.4 139.9 112.6 CORR: -0.863 -0.728 -0.024 -0.602 -0.823 -0.654 -0.770 -0.777 -0.646 Pval: 0.060 0.163 0.969 0.283 0.087 0.231 0.128 0.122 0.239 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 2.4 Standard Deviation: 1.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.8 -1.7 -1.9 0.5 -1.8 -1.8 -1.0 -0.7 -1.2 MAE: 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 RMSE: 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.9 2.1 RMAE: 75.5 77.5 78.9 57.7 76.5 75.3 68.7 64.3 69.3 CORR: 0.221 0.221 0.221 0.306 0.221 0.221 0.264 0.279 0.256 Pval: 0.721 0.721 0.721 0.617 0.721 0.721 0.668 0.650 0.677 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 1.8 Standard Deviation: 1.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -0.2 -1.3 -1.3 -0.9 -0.7 -1.1 MAE: 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 RMSE: 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 RMAE: 74.1 72.1 73.6 122.5 72.4 69.5 88.0 96.6 81.9 CORR: 0.372 -0.452 0.475 0.432 0.030 0.184 0.316 0.418 0.339 Pval: 0.537 0.444 0.419 0.467 0.962 0.767 0.604 0.483 0.577 ------------------------------------------------