Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 0.7 Standard Deviation: 0.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 MAE: 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 RMSE: 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 RMAE: 62.2 62.0 66.8 97.9 60.8 60.4 70.8 80.1 69.8 CORR: 0.390 0.421 0.459 0.028 0.408 0.422 0.401 0.375 0.417 Pval: 0.387 0.346 0.300 0.953 0.364 0.346 0.372 0.408 0.352 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 0.7 Standard Deviation: 0.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 MAE: 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 RMSE: 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 RMAE: 60.8 59.1 54.2 80.9 59.6 57.8 66.7 70.5 63.6 CORR: -0.211 -0.229 -0.114 -0.208 -0.220 -0.189 -0.223 -0.218 -0.201 Pval: 0.649 0.621 0.807 0.654 0.635 0.685 0.630 0.639 0.665 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 0.4 Standard Deviation: 0.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 MAE: 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 RMSE: 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 RMAE: 13.7 10.7 13.9 9.2 12.2 12.8 7.7 6.2 9.2 CORR: 0.312 0.365 0.218 0.253 0.338 0.296 0.313 0.287 0.289 Pval: 0.495 0.421 0.639 0.585 0.459 0.519 0.494 0.532 0.530 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 1.7 Standard Deviation: 0.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 MAE: 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 RMSE: 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 RMAE: 85.8 94.0 86.8 80.8 89.9 88.9 86.2 82.3 86.3 CORR: -0.644 -0.726 -0.660 -0.321 -0.691 -0.681 -0.592 -0.494 -0.610 Pval: 0.119 0.065 0.107 0.482 0.086 0.092 0.162 0.260 0.146 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 3.1 Standard Deviation: 1.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 MAE: 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 RMSE: 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.3 RMAE: 112.9 115.7 95.6 88.2 114.1 107.5 105.5 100.6 102.6 CORR: -0.057 -0.080 -0.017 0.176 -0.068 -0.054 0.002 0.048 -0.003 Pval: 0.904 0.865 0.971 0.706 0.884 0.908 0.997 0.919 0.996 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 4.6 Standard Deviation: 2.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.2 -1.2 -1.6 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 -1.3 MAE: 1.7 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 RMSE: 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 RMAE: 32.5 29.2 41.7 34.7 30.1 33.9 31.1 33.6 31.5 CORR: 0.464 0.655 0.318 0.466 0.572 0.474 0.578 0.493 0.522 Pval: 0.295 0.111 0.487 0.292 0.179 0.283 0.174 0.261 0.230 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 5.0 Standard Deviation: 2.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 MAE: 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 RMSE: 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 RMAE: 64.5 68.9 62.7 65.2 66.6 65.3 66.1 64.8 65.3 CORR: 0.214 0.137 0.268 0.412 0.176 0.211 0.305 0.376 0.298 Pval: 0.645 0.770 0.560 0.359 0.706 0.650 0.506 0.405 0.516 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 4.7 Standard Deviation: 2.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -0.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 MAE: 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.7 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 RMSE: 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 RMAE: 88.8 89.1 87.1 73.9 88.9 88.3 83.4 80.5 84.3 CORR: -0.396 -0.338 -0.453 -0.576 -0.368 -0.397 -0.447 -0.502 -0.450 Pval: 0.379 0.458 0.307 0.176 0.417 0.378 0.314 0.250 0.311 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 4.4 Standard Deviation: 1.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 MAE: 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.6 RMSE: 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 RMAE: 39.7 41.3 41.8 51.8 40.5 39.4 41.6 44.6 41.7 CORR: 0.298 0.312 0.293 -0.186 0.306 0.305 0.176 0.082 0.212 Pval: 0.516 0.495 0.524 0.689 0.504 0.506 0.706 0.861 0.649 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 3.7 Standard Deviation: 1.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.2 -1.5 -1.2 -0.9 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.0 -1.2 MAE: 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 RMSE: 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 RMAE: 41.7 42.7 35.0 46.7 42.2 39.8 43.7 44.2 41.6 CORR: 0.755 0.757 0.801 0.645 0.757 0.774 0.734 0.714 0.756 Pval: 0.050 0.049 0.031 0.118 0.049 0.041 0.060 0.071 0.049 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 2.7 Standard Deviation: 1.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.8 -1.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 MAE: 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 RMSE: 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 RMAE: 76.8 70.4 93.3 76.7 73.6 80.2 74.6 76.7 79.3 CORR: -0.610 -0.615 -0.663 -0.658 -0.613 -0.635 -0.631 -0.637 -0.643 Pval: 0.146 0.142 0.104 0.108 0.144 0.125 0.129 0.124 0.120 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 2.0 Standard Deviation: 1.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 MAE: 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 RMSE: 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 RMAE: 53.5 51.6 57.9 55.5 52.5 54.3 51.9 52.0 51.7 CORR: -0.004 0.019 -0.030 -0.129 0.007 -0.005 -0.042 -0.071 -0.039 Pval: 0.994 0.968 0.950 0.782 0.987 0.991 0.928 0.881 0.933 ------------------------------------------------