Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 2.8 Standard Deviation: 1.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.6 1.4 0.3 -0.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.4 MAE: 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 RMSE: 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 RMAE: 23.3 35.8 45.5 51.0 23.7 28.3 19.2 28.5 25.7 CORR: 0.790 0.883 0.617 0.632 0.851 0.767 0.796 0.726 0.754 Pval: 0.111 0.047 0.268 0.252 0.068 0.130 0.107 0.164 0.141 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 3.8 Standard Deviation: 1.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.4 -2.5 -0.9 -1.4 -1.5 -1.3 -1.5 -0.9 -1.3 MAE: 2.0 2.5 0.9 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.7 RMSE: 2.4 2.9 1.1 2.8 2.3 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.1 RMAE: 95.5 69.2 32.3 61.0 64.1 42.0 63.0 75.2 46.8 CORR: -0.794 0.611 0.951 -0.391 0.071 0.755 -0.177 -0.624 0.407 Pval: 0.109 0.273 0.013 0.515 0.909 0.140 0.776 0.261 0.496 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 4.8 Standard Deviation: 2.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.1 0.4 -0.6 1.6 0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 MAE: 2.5 4.0 2.1 2.6 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.7 RMSE: 3.0 4.4 2.8 2.8 3.7 3.2 3.2 2.7 3.0 RMAE: 56.4 100.7 44.5 76.3 78.2 60.9 73.0 66.4 64.5 CORR: -0.347 -0.499 -0.053 -0.298 -0.465 -0.423 -0.465 -0.376 -0.429 Pval: 0.567 0.392 0.932 0.626 0.430 0.478 0.431 0.533 0.471 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 6.2 Standard Deviation: 2.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.2 0.5 -2.8 2.9 -0.3 -1.2 0.7 0.9 -0.2 MAE: 2.0 1.8 3.4 3.5 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.4 RMSE: 2.4 2.2 3.7 4.4 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.1 RMAE: 33.5 30.9 60.8 70.2 23.9 33.3 33.6 35.1 20.8 CORR: 0.490 0.228 0.541 -0.250 0.416 0.480 0.215 0.193 0.385 Pval: 0.402 0.712 0.346 0.685 0.486 0.414 0.728 0.755 0.522 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 7.2 Standard Deviation: 2.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 3.8 3.2 0.7 2.1 3.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.4 MAE: 6.2 5.1 4.2 4.8 5.7 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.1 RMSE: 8.2 6.7 4.7 6.0 7.4 6.4 6.9 7.1 6.3 RMAE: 108.6 92.3 64.8 83.2 100.4 88.5 94.7 95.9 87.2 CORR: -0.300 -0.355 -0.316 -0.359 -0.324 -0.324 -0.334 -0.325 -0.333 Pval: 0.623 0.558 0.605 0.553 0.595 0.595 0.583 0.594 0.584 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 8.2 Standard Deviation: 3.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.1 -2.8 0.1 -0.7 -2.0 -1.3 -1.6 -0.9 -1.1 MAE: 3.2 4.0 2.4 1.8 3.1 2.9 2.2 2.1 2.3 RMSE: 3.8 5.0 3.1 2.1 4.1 3.5 3.1 2.5 2.9 RMAE: 40.8 48.8 35.5 22.6 33.4 34.1 22.1 24.7 25.5 CORR: -0.062 0.324 0.509 0.838 0.241 0.314 0.625 0.754 0.651 Pval: 0.922 0.594 0.381 0.076 0.696 0.607 0.259 0.141 0.235 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 7.8 Standard Deviation: 3.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.4 -2.1 0.3 -0.1 -1.8 -1.1 -1.2 -0.8 -0.8 MAE: 2.5 3.1 1.8 1.9 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 RMSE: 2.8 3.6 2.1 2.6 3.2 2.6 2.3 1.9 2.1 RMAE: 38.9 48.5 30.1 41.1 43.7 30.7 24.3 25.1 22.2 CORR: 0.703 0.618 0.796 0.594 0.661 0.698 0.785 0.840 0.797 Pval: 0.185 0.266 0.107 0.291 0.225 0.190 0.116 0.075 0.107 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 6.8 Standard Deviation: 2.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 1.5 1.6 0.7 -0.1 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.9 MAE: 2.7 2.2 4.3 2.1 2.4 2.8 1.9 2.0 2.3 RMSE: 3.3 3.2 5.1 2.5 3.2 3.5 2.6 2.6 3.0 RMAE: 79.1 79.5 92.9 44.0 78.6 80.3 62.2 57.3 67.3 CORR: 0.092 -0.057 0.030 0.521 0.054 0.038 0.422 0.417 0.208 Pval: 0.882 0.927 0.962 0.368 0.931 0.951 0.479 0.484 0.737 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 5.8 Standard Deviation: 1.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -4.1 -3.9 -4.3 -1.5 -4.0 -4.1 -3.2 -2.8 -3.4 MAE: 4.1 3.9 4.3 3.5 4.0 4.1 3.2 3.1 3.4 RMSE: 4.6 4.5 4.7 3.9 4.5 4.6 3.9 3.7 4.0 RMAE: 72.3 72.8 76.8 53.5 72.6 74.0 56.4 52.3 61.5 CORR: 0.419 0.492 0.434 0.389 0.459 0.452 0.491 0.457 0.495 Pval: 0.482 0.400 0.465 0.518 0.437 0.445 0.400 0.439 0.397 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 4.2 Standard Deviation: 1.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.7 -1.5 -2.7 -0.1 -1.1 -1.6 -0.8 -0.4 -1.3 MAE: 4.2 5.3 2.8 3.4 4.7 4.1 4.2 3.6 3.8 RMSE: 4.9 5.7 3.3 4.1 5.3 4.3 4.8 4.4 4.1 RMAE: 219.6 258.4 61.9 186.8 239.0 180.0 219.4 199.9 180.0 CORR: -0.884 -0.874 0.300 -0.947 -0.886 -0.794 -0.915 -0.923 -0.856 Pval: 0.047 0.053 0.624 0.015 0.045 0.109 0.029 0.025 0.064 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 3.0 Standard Deviation: 1.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -2.2 -2.1 -2.5 -1.1 -2.2 -2.3 -1.8 -1.6 -2.0 MAE: 2.2 2.5 2.5 1.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.2 RMSE: 3.0 3.0 3.1 1.9 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.7 RMAE: 76.3 78.3 84.0 40.6 77.3 79.5 65.1 58.5 69.8 CORR: 0.283 -0.008 0.280 0.429 0.157 0.192 0.239 0.355 0.249 Pval: 0.645 0.989 0.649 0.471 0.801 0.757 0.698 0.558 0.686 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 2.0 Standard Deviation: 1.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.9 -0.4 -1.1 -1.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -1.1 -0.9 MAE: 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 RMSE: 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 RMAE: 115.3 98.4 97.1 69.6 106.8 103.6 93.4 90.9 94.3 CORR: 0.140 -0.372 0.206 -0.210 -0.083 0.011 -0.111 0.050 -0.018 Pval: 0.823 0.537 0.739 0.734 0.895 0.986 0.860 0.936 0.977 ------------------------------------------------