Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 2.4 Standard Deviation: 1.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 MAE: 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 RMSE: 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 RMAE: 68.4 68.1 76.6 78.5 68.3 69.5 69.9 71.9 71.5 CORR: -0.277 -0.277 -0.372 -0.386 -0.278 -0.313 -0.322 -0.343 -0.337 Pval: 0.547 0.547 0.412 0.393 0.547 0.494 0.481 0.452 0.460 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 3.9 Standard Deviation: 1.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 MAE: 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 RMSE: 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 RMAE: 76.8 75.0 79.6 87.0 75.9 77.1 79.6 81.9 79.6 CORR: -0.565 -0.535 -0.593 -0.445 -0.551 -0.566 -0.542 -0.523 -0.560 Pval: 0.187 0.216 0.161 0.317 0.200 0.186 0.209 0.229 0.191 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 5.0 Standard Deviation: 2.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 MAE: 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 RMSE: 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 RMAE: 50.7 54.4 46.5 45.5 52.6 50.5 49.6 47.1 48.8 CORR: 0.182 0.160 0.233 0.269 0.171 0.191 0.208 0.229 0.214 Pval: 0.696 0.731 0.616 0.560 0.713 0.682 0.655 0.621 0.645 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 6.7 Standard Deviation: 2.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 MAE: 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 RMSE: 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 RMAE: 37.9 39.8 38.3 40.6 38.9 38.7 39.4 39.2 39.2 CORR: 0.455 0.459 0.438 0.360 0.457 0.455 0.428 0.411 0.436 Pval: 0.306 0.300 0.325 0.428 0.302 0.305 0.338 0.360 0.328 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 7.9 Standard Deviation: 2.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 MAE: 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 RMSE: 3.8 3.5 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 RMAE: 53.2 48.3 50.9 52.4 50.4 50.6 49.7 50.4 49.2 CORR: -0.673 -0.492 -0.636 -0.347 -0.598 -0.615 -0.519 -0.518 -0.554 Pval: 0.097 0.262 0.125 0.445 0.156 0.141 0.233 0.234 0.197 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 9.0 Standard Deviation: 3.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 MAE: 3.7 3.6 3.9 3.2 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.6 RMSE: 4.2 4.0 4.3 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.1 RMAE: 46.6 46.6 48.3 39.5 46.6 47.2 44.2 43.1 45.3 CORR: 0.089 0.142 0.080 0.246 0.116 0.104 0.152 0.157 0.132 Pval: 0.850 0.761 0.864 0.595 0.804 0.824 0.745 0.737 0.778 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 8.7 Standard Deviation: 4.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.2 -1.1 -1.5 -0.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 MAE: 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 RMSE: 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 RMAE: 42.3 43.0 45.2 43.8 42.6 43.0 43.0 43.0 42.7 CORR: 0.339 0.426 0.252 0.050 0.383 0.333 0.273 0.195 0.267 Pval: 0.457 0.341 0.586 0.916 0.397 0.466 0.554 0.675 0.562 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 7.4 Standard Deviation: 3.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -2.9 -2.5 -3.1 -3.1 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8 -3.0 -2.9 MAE: 3.3 3.1 3.6 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.2 RMSE: 4.2 3.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 RMAE: 42.6 41.6 45.9 34.1 42.1 43.4 37.8 36.8 39.8 CORR: 0.325 0.381 0.316 0.450 0.352 0.340 0.397 0.400 0.376 Pval: 0.477 0.399 0.490 0.311 0.439 0.456 0.377 0.374 0.406 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 6.4 Standard Deviation: 2.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 MAE: 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 RMSE: 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 RMAE: 47.2 46.9 49.8 54.9 47.1 48.0 49.6 51.0 49.7 CORR: 0.459 0.440 0.425 0.430 0.450 0.442 0.455 0.456 0.447 Pval: 0.301 0.324 0.342 0.335 0.311 0.321 0.306 0.303 0.314 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 4.7 Standard Deviation: 2.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -2.5 -2.2 -2.2 -2.4 -2.3 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 MAE: 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 RMSE: 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 RMAE: 61.6 50.8 74.3 54.8 56.2 62.2 55.7 58.2 60.4 CORR: 0.206 0.331 -0.066 0.512 0.281 0.178 0.346 0.350 0.251 Pval: 0.657 0.468 0.887 0.240 0.541 0.703 0.447 0.442 0.588 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 3.6 Standard Deviation: 2.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 MAE: 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 RMSE: 3.7 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 RMAE: 55.7 56.1 58.5 69.7 55.9 56.8 57.8 60.4 56.7 CORR: -0.737 -0.732 -0.779 -0.718 -0.734 -0.753 -0.751 -0.754 -0.766 Pval: 0.059 0.062 0.039 0.069 0.060 0.051 0.052 0.050 0.045 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 2.4 Standard Deviation: 1.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 MAE: 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 RMSE: 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 RMAE: 78.7 91.5 71.7 91.6 85.1 80.7 84.9 81.6 81.6 CORR: 0.250 0.055 0.311 -0.113 0.155 0.209 0.067 0.073 0.132 Pval: 0.588 0.906 0.497 0.809 0.740 0.652 0.886 0.876 0.778 ------------------------------------------------