Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 2.4 Standard Deviation: 1.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.5 -0.5 0.1 -1.0 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 MAE: 1.5 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 RMSE: 1.6 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.7 RMAE: 64.4 60.0 83.3 77.7 62.2 69.2 67.4 71.0 71.3 CORR: -0.043 0.421 -0.640 -0.153 0.256 -0.083 0.089 -0.125 -0.115 Pval: 0.926 0.346 0.121 0.744 0.579 0.859 0.849 0.790 0.805 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 3.9 Standard Deviation: 1.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.7 -1.3 0.1 -0.7 -1.0 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 MAE: 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 RMSE: 1.6 1.9 1.5 2.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 RMAE: 39.4 32.5 44.3 47.3 34.8 36.8 35.4 41.8 37.6 CORR: 0.377 0.510 0.334 0.179 0.456 0.413 0.423 0.298 0.438 Pval: 0.404 0.243 0.465 0.701 0.304 0.357 0.344 0.516 0.326 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 5.0 Standard Deviation: 2.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.2 -0.5 0.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.0 MAE: 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 RMSE: 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 RMAE: 48.0 44.8 56.2 41.3 46.4 49.7 44.7 44.7 47.6 CORR: 0.168 0.143 0.158 0.438 0.156 0.157 0.346 0.398 0.277 Pval: 0.718 0.760 0.735 0.326 0.738 0.736 0.447 0.376 0.548 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 6.7 Standard Deviation: 2.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.3 -0.9 0.4 -0.0 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 MAE: 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.0 RMSE: 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 RMAE: 30.1 26.8 36.4 33.5 28.5 30.4 28.2 31.2 30.2 CORR: 0.307 0.314 0.226 0.154 0.339 0.287 0.301 0.232 0.311 Pval: 0.502 0.493 0.626 0.741 0.456 0.532 0.512 0.616 0.498 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 7.9 Standard Deviation: 2.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.8 -1.1 -0.1 -0.5 -1.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 MAE: 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.0 RMSE: 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.4 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.6 RMAE: 30.9 32.1 31.5 24.9 31.5 31.2 26.3 23.4 27.4 CORR: -0.007 -0.067 0.205 0.508 -0.048 0.069 0.403 0.483 0.426 Pval: 0.988 0.887 0.660 0.245 0.918 0.884 0.371 0.272 0.341 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 9.0 Standard Deviation: 3.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.3 -1.7 -1.9 -2.1 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8 MAE: 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 RMSE: 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.1 RMAE: 32.4 34.3 35.0 34.0 33.4 33.9 33.6 33.2 33.9 CORR: 0.163 0.083 -0.040 0.381 0.119 0.064 0.242 0.313 0.178 Pval: 0.726 0.860 0.933 0.399 0.799 0.892 0.601 0.494 0.703 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 8.7 Standard Deviation: 4.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.3 MAE: 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.3 RMSE: 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 RMAE: 44.6 43.7 50.5 45.8 44.1 45.7 43.9 44.0 45.1 CORR: 0.177 0.184 -0.437 0.065 0.182 0.005 0.174 0.143 0.028 Pval: 0.704 0.694 0.327 0.889 0.696 0.992 0.709 0.760 0.953 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 7.4 Standard Deviation: 3.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.2 -1.0 -0.6 -1.1 -1.1 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -0.9 MAE: 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 RMSE: 3.2 3.2 2.8 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.2 RMAE: 50.3 51.3 45.7 54.6 50.8 49.1 51.1 50.9 49.7 CORR: 0.408 0.426 0.608 -0.106 0.417 0.531 0.209 0.104 0.383 Pval: 0.364 0.341 0.148 0.822 0.352 0.220 0.653 0.825 0.396 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 6.4 Standard Deviation: 2.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -2.1 -1.9 -1.7 -1.5 -2.0 -1.9 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 MAE: 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 RMSE: 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 RMAE: 36.9 35.6 48.2 41.3 36.3 40.2 36.6 37.2 39.5 CORR: 0.572 0.490 0.170 0.369 0.530 0.516 0.475 0.460 0.465 Pval: 0.179 0.264 0.715 0.415 0.221 0.236 0.281 0.299 0.293 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 4.7 Standard Deviation: 2.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.9 -1.9 -1.6 -2.3 -1.9 -1.8 -2.0 -2.1 -1.9 MAE: 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.9 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.2 RMSE: 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 RMAE: 42.2 35.6 59.1 83.2 35.5 43.4 51.4 62.7 53.3 CORR: 0.518 0.542 0.170 0.055 0.536 0.655 0.546 0.365 0.653 Pval: 0.234 0.209 0.715 0.907 0.215 0.111 0.205 0.420 0.112 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 3.6 Standard Deviation: 2.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.4 -2.2 -0.9 -1.5 -1.8 -1.5 -1.7 -1.5 -1.5 MAE: 2.3 2.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 RMSE: 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 RMAE: 57.8 59.9 50.0 47.5 58.9 55.9 54.3 51.5 53.2 CORR: 0.083 0.395 0.450 0.424 0.268 0.351 0.401 0.353 0.438 Pval: 0.860 0.381 0.311 0.343 0.561 0.440 0.372 0.437 0.326 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 2.4 Standard Deviation: 1.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.1 -1.3 -0.3 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.1 MAE: 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 RMSE: 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.0 RMAE: 66.7 53.5 90.0 88.3 59.1 69.4 59.2 63.1 66.9 CORR: 0.001 0.292 0.066 -0.118 0.180 0.120 0.050 -0.109 0.062 Pval: 0.999 0.525 0.888 0.801 0.699 0.797 0.916 0.816 0.895 ------------------------------------------------