Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 1.4 Standard Deviation: 3.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.2 -1.4 1.1 0.1 -0.6 -0.0 -0.4 0.2 0.0 MAE: 1.9 1.4 2.3 0.2 1.6 1.8 1.1 1.0 1.4 RMSE: 2.7 3.4 2.8 0.3 2.9 2.7 2.0 1.4 2.0 RMAE: 61.8 100.0 61.3 13.4 68.4 57.7 43.7 35.9 45.8 CORR: 0.553 -99.000 0.548 0.994 0.553 0.558 0.960 0.960 0.878 Pval: 0.012 -99.000 0.012 0.000 0.012 0.011 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 2.7 Standard Deviation: 6.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.3 -2.7 1.9 0.1 -1.2 -0.2 -0.8 0.2 -0.1 MAE: 3.7 2.7 4.5 0.1 3.1 3.5 2.1 1.9 2.7 RMSE: 5.3 6.8 5.8 0.2 5.8 5.4 3.9 2.7 4.1 RMAE: 106.6 100.0 144.9 3.2 78.3 100.5 51.4 52.1 74.8 CORR: 0.531 -99.000 0.495 0.999 0.531 0.522 0.959 0.959 0.866 Pval: 0.016 -99.000 0.027 0.000 0.016 0.018 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 9.6 Standard Deviation: 11.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.4 -0.3 2.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 MAE: 6.5 6.5 7.2 1.7 6.5 6.5 4.9 4.1 5.3 RMSE: 8.5 9.3 9.2 2.6 8.7 8.5 6.3 5.0 6.7 RMAE: 155.4 136.8 189.9 27.6 146.1 157.0 106.4 91.2 124.5 CORR: 0.668 0.593 0.625 0.975 0.638 0.669 0.845 0.922 0.827 Pval: 0.001 0.006 0.003 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 22.2 Standard Deviation: 14.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 MAE: 8.0 7.3 8.7 2.5 7.7 8.0 5.5 4.6 6.2 RMSE: 9.8 10.1 9.9 3.3 9.9 9.7 7.0 5.6 7.6 RMAE: 83.3 76.5 89.7 22.3 79.9 83.2 55.3 44.7 63.0 CORR: 0.752 0.730 0.748 0.975 0.747 0.754 0.893 0.936 0.865 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 37.5 Standard Deviation: 21.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -2.9 6.6 0.1 -1.4 1.2 -0.9 0.0 0.9 MAE: 14.3 12.5 19.2 4.0 13.3 15.1 9.7 8.5 11.8 RMSE: 17.6 18.6 20.9 6.4 17.9 17.9 13.0 10.6 14.2 RMAE: 54.3 45.2 79.2 10.5 49.1 57.2 35.0 30.5 44.3 CORR: 0.591 0.541 0.484 0.956 0.578 0.574 0.828 0.895 0.778 Pval: 0.006 0.014 0.031 0.000 0.008 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 52.8 Standard Deviation: 19.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -0.3 -4.8 0.7 -0.1 -1.7 0.1 0.3 -1.1 MAE: 11.2 9.3 21.2 4.8 9.7 13.5 7.3 6.9 10.3 RMSE: 16.7 17.7 22.8 6.3 16.9 17.1 12.0 9.5 13.2 RMAE: 28.7 25.8 50.2 9.5 26.1 33.9 19.3 17.2 26.1 CORR: 0.537 0.468 0.359 0.949 0.517 0.514 0.826 0.912 0.759 Pval: 0.015 0.037 0.120 0.000 0.020 0.020 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 67.3 Standard Deviation: 22.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 4.7 -4.3 -0.0 2.4 0.1 1.6 -0.0 0.1 MAE: 15.4 13.8 19.0 8.2 14.4 15.1 11.9 11.2 12.7 RMSE: 18.7 21.6 21.1 11.9 19.4 19.1 15.9 14.2 16.4 RMAE: 28.7 30.6 32.2 13.3 29.4 29.0 23.3 20.0 24.1 CORR: 0.546 0.432 0.466 0.844 0.508 0.522 0.710 0.783 0.677 Pval: 0.013 0.057 0.038 0.000 0.022 0.018 0.000 0.000 0.001 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 77.7 Standard Deviation: 27.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -4.6 11.3 -0.3 -2.3 2.2 -1.7 -0.2 1.6 MAE: 17.6 15.7 25.3 9.3 16.6 18.5 13.9 13.0 15.7 RMSE: 23.1 25.0 27.4 19.9 23.6 23.5 20.9 19.9 21.2 RMAE: 25.1 19.5 38.5 14.2 22.3 26.5 19.2 19.0 22.9 CORR: 0.541 0.461 0.468 0.689 0.519 0.521 0.669 0.708 0.648 Pval: 0.014 0.041 0.038 0.001 0.019 0.018 0.001 0.000 0.002 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 75.8 Standard Deviation: 27.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -3.7 1.5 -1.3 -1.8 -0.7 -1.6 -0.6 -0.9 MAE: 13.1 11.3 18.9 7.2 12.1 13.7 9.8 9.4 11.8 RMSE: 16.3 19.0 20.1 10.1 17.0 16.5 13.5 11.9 14.0 RMAE: 18.1 15.9 28.6 10.5 16.7 18.5 13.2 12.7 15.9 CORR: 0.800 0.730 0.721 0.930 0.781 0.794 0.872 0.900 0.856 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 55.3 Standard Deviation: 28.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -3.5 3.9 -0.5 -1.7 0.1 -1.3 -0.2 -0.0 MAE: 12.9 10.2 17.4 5.2 11.6 13.5 8.9 8.3 11.0 RMSE: 15.5 18.7 18.4 7.2 16.2 15.7 12.1 10.1 12.8 RMAE: 33.9 24.4 47.3 13.6 29.2 35.1 22.7 21.9 28.8 CORR: 0.834 0.768 0.772 0.967 0.820 0.830 0.905 0.937 0.895 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 28.3 Standard Deviation: 20.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 3.6 2.9 0.1 1.8 2.1 1.2 0.1 1.6 MAE: 14.6 12.4 18.4 7.2 13.5 15.1 11.3 10.8 13.1 RMSE: 17.8 19.2 20.5 11.1 18.1 18.0 14.3 12.9 15.3 RMAE: 67.3 65.8 97.0 55.9 66.5 76.7 62.8 61.3 71.3 CORR: 0.499 0.466 0.313 0.840 0.487 0.492 0.734 0.816 0.690 Pval: 0.025 0.038 0.179 0.000 0.029 0.028 0.000 0.000 0.001 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 8.2 Standard Deviation: 12.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.3 -8.2 5.7 0.2 -4.0 -0.7 -2.6 0.2 -0.5 MAE: 9.1 8.2 11.7 1.6 8.6 9.6 6.3 5.3 7.6 RMSE: 11.5 15.3 14.2 3.4 12.5 11.9 8.8 6.5 9.2 RMAE: 52.0 100.0 40.3 10.0 76.0 63.1 54.0 31.0 49.8 CORR: 0.463 -99.000 0.317 0.966 0.463 0.406 0.920 0.920 0.808 Pval: 0.040 -99.000 0.173 0.000 0.040 0.076 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------