Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 1.3 Standard Deviation: 3.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.2 -1.3 1.5 0.1 -0.6 0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.1 MAE: 1.9 1.3 2.6 0.6 1.6 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.5 RMSE: 2.6 3.3 3.0 1.3 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.8 2.2 RMAE: 66.0 100.0 62.0 18.2 71.6 62.7 53.7 39.6 50.3 CORR: 0.525 -99.000 0.507 0.899 0.525 0.521 0.873 0.873 0.797 Pval: 0.005 -99.000 0.007 0.000 0.005 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 3.1 Standard Deviation: 6.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.3 -3.1 2.3 0.1 -1.4 -0.1 -0.9 0.2 -0.1 MAE: 4.2 3.1 5.1 0.8 3.6 4.1 2.6 2.5 3.3 RMSE: 5.8 7.3 6.5 1.5 6.2 5.9 4.3 3.3 4.6 RMAE: 97.2 100.0 111.4 29.1 81.9 91.8 64.2 62.9 76.0 CORR: 0.488 -99.000 0.440 0.973 0.488 0.470 0.930 0.930 0.819 Pval: 0.010 -99.000 0.022 0.000 0.010 0.013 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 10.6 Standard Deviation: 11.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.2 -0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 MAE: 7.5 6.8 9.0 2.2 7.1 7.6 5.3 4.6 6.2 RMSE: 9.0 9.4 10.1 3.6 9.0 9.1 6.7 5.6 7.3 RMAE: 138.1 119.0 138.8 18.8 128.6 130.7 90.7 76.6 102.1 CORR: 0.613 0.567 0.462 0.948 0.603 0.601 0.830 0.895 0.800 Pval: 0.001 0.002 0.015 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 22.8 Standard Deviation: 15.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.1 -1.2 0.7 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 MAE: 9.0 8.5 9.3 3.8 8.6 8.8 6.5 5.7 7.1 RMSE: 11.0 11.7 11.2 5.2 11.2 11.0 8.4 7.1 9.0 RMAE: 84.6 50.9 76.1 23.2 66.9 69.5 50.3 51.1 56.4 CORR: 0.705 0.659 0.698 0.942 0.693 0.700 0.851 0.896 0.819 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 36.1 Standard Deviation: 20.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -5.7 5.0 -0.8 -2.8 -0.2 -2.2 -0.4 -0.4 MAE: 15.2 13.4 17.8 7.5 14.1 15.2 11.4 10.5 12.8 RMSE: 18.1 19.5 20.1 10.5 18.4 18.1 14.4 12.7 15.2 RMAE: 57.7 42.2 80.4 31.6 48.6 58.8 39.8 39.7 49.4 CORR: 0.496 0.448 0.420 0.863 0.484 0.490 0.762 0.822 0.709 Pval: 0.009 0.019 0.029 0.000 0.011 0.009 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 49.9 Standard Deviation: 19.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -3.2 -3.0 -0.0 -1.6 -2.1 -1.1 -0.0 -1.6 MAE: 11.1 10.4 18.4 6.9 10.6 12.5 8.2 7.8 9.9 RMSE: 15.7 17.4 20.0 8.7 16.1 16.0 12.1 10.3 12.9 RMAE: 30.1 23.6 46.8 16.2 26.5 31.9 20.2 19.6 25.0 CORR: 0.611 0.525 0.425 0.899 0.587 0.602 0.813 0.875 0.782 Pval: 0.001 0.005 0.027 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 62.4 Standard Deviation: 22.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -0.7 -2.3 0.9 -0.4 -1.0 0.1 0.5 -0.5 MAE: 14.3 13.7 17.6 8.2 14.0 14.8 11.7 10.7 12.4 RMSE: 17.7 18.3 19.6 11.3 17.8 17.8 14.4 13.0 15.1 RMAE: 28.0 26.2 33.3 15.6 27.1 28.4 22.8 21.2 24.3 CORR: 0.633 0.602 0.576 0.871 0.625 0.628 0.786 0.835 0.754 Pval: 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 70.6 Standard Deviation: 29.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -5.2 6.0 0.2 -2.6 0.2 -1.7 0.1 0.2 MAE: 20.2 17.6 28.8 13.1 18.7 21.0 16.0 15.5 18.7 RMSE: 25.9 28.9 31.7 18.2 26.7 26.5 22.7 20.8 23.6 RMAE: 38.6 30.4 51.7 23.3 34.1 38.6 29.1 28.8 34.0 CORR: 0.500 0.382 0.358 0.794 0.463 0.469 0.662 0.729 0.615 Pval: 0.008 0.049 0.067 0.000 0.015 0.014 0.000 0.000 0.001 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 71.2 Standard Deviation: 27.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 3.2 2.4 0.3 1.6 1.8 1.1 0.1 1.4 MAE: 17.2 15.7 18.7 7.0 16.4 16.9 12.3 11.0 13.7 RMSE: 20.1 23.5 21.8 9.9 21.0 20.7 15.9 13.3 16.9 RMAE: 32.4 29.8 34.0 12.6 31.0 31.7 23.8 21.2 26.1 CORR: 0.683 0.623 0.656 0.933 0.663 0.676 0.817 0.884 0.791 Pval: 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 52.6 Standard Deviation: 27.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 1.3 1.4 -0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 -0.1 0.6 MAE: 16.2 14.4 20.0 6.9 15.3 16.0 11.7 10.3 13.1 RMSE: 19.5 21.9 22.4 9.0 20.1 19.7 15.3 12.8 16.1 RMAE: 43.6 42.7 53.5 16.8 43.0 45.2 32.3 27.2 36.5 CORR: 0.697 0.603 0.592 0.943 0.674 0.694 0.836 0.893 0.820 Pval: 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 29.4 Standard Deviation: 20.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -0.9 9.1 0.4 -0.5 2.7 -0.2 0.2 2.1 MAE: 15.0 13.7 19.3 11.1 14.3 15.5 13.0 12.8 14.0 RMSE: 19.8 21.8 22.9 14.3 20.3 20.4 17.1 15.7 17.9 RMAE: 61.0 58.9 99.3 45.9 59.9 71.5 53.6 51.9 63.3 CORR: 0.317 0.230 0.228 0.729 0.278 0.286 0.596 0.708 0.547 Pval: 0.107 0.248 0.252 0.000 0.160 0.147 0.001 0.000 0.003 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 7.6 Standard Deviation: 12.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.1 -7.6 3.8 -0.6 -3.7 -1.2 -2.7 -0.2 -1.1 MAE: 9.0 7.6 11.9 4.2 8.1 9.3 6.8 6.5 7.9 RMSE: 11.7 14.9 14.4 6.4 12.6 12.2 9.7 8.0 10.1 RMAE: 67.6 100.0 72.4 43.6 72.7 70.2 59.7 46.7 59.1 CORR: 0.415 -99.000 0.209 0.866 0.415 0.319 0.829 0.829 0.704 Pval: 0.031 -99.000 0.296 0.000 0.031 0.105 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------