Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 23.6 Standard Deviation: 14.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 0.3 1.2 -1.2 0.1 0.5 -0.3 -0.6 0.1 MAE: 10.0 9.2 12.1 5.8 9.6 10.4 8.1 7.6 9.0 RMSE: 12.4 14.3 13.6 9.4 12.9 12.6 11.3 10.2 11.3 RMAE: 153.7 201.4 123.4 62.2 177.6 159.5 134.7 101.3 131.4 CORR: 0.553 0.411 0.519 0.778 0.505 0.540 0.651 0.738 0.645 Pval: 0.011 0.072 0.019 0.000 0.023 0.014 0.002 0.000 0.002 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 40.2 Standard Deviation: 23.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -4.6 12.2 -1.5 -2.3 2.5 -2.0 -0.7 1.5 MAE: 15.8 14.7 25.4 4.6 15.2 17.1 11.3 9.6 13.1 RMSE: 21.5 22.4 28.5 7.4 21.7 22.2 15.3 12.3 17.1 RMAE: 65.3 54.7 106.6 16.3 59.9 70.6 43.4 37.7 54.6 CORR: 0.414 0.371 0.295 0.951 0.403 0.377 0.846 0.921 0.726 Pval: 0.069 0.107 0.207 0.000 0.078 0.101 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 62.3 Standard Deviation: 22.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 3.0 -0.5 0.7 1.5 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.8 MAE: 14.7 13.5 21.5 8.9 14.1 16.4 12.2 11.6 14.3 RMSE: 18.8 19.9 23.4 13.0 19.1 19.3 16.1 14.8 17.0 RMAE: 26.6 25.8 41.8 17.6 26.2 31.0 23.1 21.8 27.4 CORR: 0.541 0.499 0.383 0.815 0.529 0.515 0.701 0.760 0.652 Pval: 0.014 0.025 0.096 0.000 0.017 0.020 0.001 0.000 0.002 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 89.6 Standard Deviation: 26.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -0.3 -18.3 0.6 -0.2 -6.2 0.1 0.3 -4.5 MAE: 16.5 14.3 30.7 7.7 15.4 19.0 11.8 10.5 15.0 RMSE: 22.4 23.7 33.5 9.8 22.8 23.8 16.8 14.0 18.9 RMAE: 23.4 19.5 40.9 8.3 21.4 26.1 15.9 14.1 20.4 CORR: 0.547 0.501 0.228 0.931 0.532 0.510 0.796 0.880 0.760 Pval: 0.013 0.024 0.333 0.000 0.016 0.022 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 115.2 Standard Deviation: 37.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -6.4 7.9 0.8 -3.2 0.5 -1.9 0.4 0.6 MAE: 19.8 18.2 24.2 6.6 19.0 20.7 14.1 12.0 16.3 RMSE: 23.7 25.7 26.4 8.3 24.2 24.0 17.1 13.7 18.7 RMAE: 20.1 17.1 25.3 5.9 18.6 20.7 13.5 11.7 16.3 CORR: 0.768 0.748 0.742 0.975 0.763 0.763 0.891 0.935 0.864 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 128.5 Standard Deviation: 34.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 4.4 -0.6 -0.2 2.2 1.3 1.4 -0.1 0.9 MAE: 16.4 14.8 21.6 5.6 15.5 17.4 10.9 8.9 13.3 RMSE: 20.9 24.5 25.2 6.7 21.8 21.3 15.5 12.3 16.7 RMAE: 13.4 13.5 17.6 4.5 13.4 14.6 9.1 7.0 11.1 CORR: 0.796 0.713 0.770 0.981 0.777 0.788 0.903 0.938 0.875 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 122.6 Standard Deviation: 32.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 6.9 -0.0 -0.9 3.5 2.3 2.0 -0.5 1.5 MAE: 18.5 16.6 22.8 7.5 17.6 19.0 13.7 12.2 15.6 RMSE: 23.9 27.2 27.5 10.7 24.8 24.7 18.2 15.3 19.9 RMAE: 15.8 16.1 19.8 6.1 15.9 16.9 12.2 10.3 13.8 CORR: 0.664 0.579 0.572 0.943 0.642 0.641 0.840 0.892 0.790 Pval: 0.001 0.007 0.008 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 106.0 Standard Deviation: 32.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -4.2 15.0 -1.1 -2.1 3.6 -1.8 -0.5 2.4 MAE: 19.9 18.1 28.9 4.8 18.9 21.5 13.6 11.6 16.6 RMSE: 28.2 29.1 33.0 7.9 28.4 28.6 19.8 15.5 22.0 RMAE: 18.8 16.6 29.6 4.8 17.6 20.9 12.8 11.1 16.2 CORR: 0.498 0.468 0.446 0.971 0.489 0.487 0.832 0.916 0.768 Pval: 0.026 0.038 0.049 0.000 0.029 0.029 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 83.9 Standard Deviation: 29.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -4.0 7.7 0.0 -2.0 1.2 -1.3 0.0 0.9 MAE: 15.0 12.8 19.4 4.8 13.9 15.2 10.5 9.3 12.4 RMSE: 17.8 20.7 20.7 7.3 18.6 18.2 13.5 11.1 14.5 RMAE: 18.3 14.8 27.3 5.9 16.5 19.1 12.4 11.3 15.5 CORR: 0.795 0.730 0.760 0.969 0.779 0.789 0.895 0.929 0.875 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 56.7 Standard Deviation: 29.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.1 -2.8 6.3 -0.6 -1.3 1.2 -1.1 -0.2 0.8 MAE: 13.2 10.5 17.3 5.7 11.8 13.5 9.3 8.7 11.1 RMSE: 15.9 17.8 18.6 7.6 16.2 16.0 12.2 10.4 13.0 RMAE: 34.1 24.2 48.2 14.5 29.1 35.3 23.1 22.5 29.0 CORR: 0.840 0.802 0.803 0.966 0.835 0.840 0.913 0.938 0.899 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 31.0 Standard Deviation: 24.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 0.9 3.3 0.5 0.4 1.4 0.5 0.3 1.2 MAE: 17.0 14.9 22.8 7.5 15.9 18.0 12.8 11.8 15.1 RMSE: 21.8 22.9 25.3 13.5 22.1 22.0 17.2 15.2 18.3 RMAE: 71.2 68.0 101.8 63.2 69.6 79.7 66.1 65.2 74.5 CORR: 0.440 0.393 0.288 0.833 0.425 0.429 0.756 0.850 0.698 Pval: 0.052 0.086 0.218 0.000 0.062 0.059 0.000 0.000 0.001 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 18.5 Standard Deviation: 18.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -2.5 8.1 -1.0 -1.2 1.9 -1.2 -0.5 1.1 MAE: 12.9 11.8 19.3 5.9 12.4 13.7 10.1 9.3 11.5 RMSE: 17.1 18.1 22.2 10.5 17.4 17.6 14.1 12.6 14.9 RMAE: 178.5 120.0 318.7 44.5 149.2 199.8 113.7 110.6 158.8 CORR: 0.399 0.350 0.241 0.828 0.382 0.368 0.685 0.788 0.619 Pval: 0.081 0.131 0.306 0.000 0.096 0.110 0.001 0.000 0.004 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