Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 24.6 Standard Deviation: 16.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -0.8 1.7 0.1 -0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.3 MAE: 11.1 9.9 13.2 6.3 10.5 11.3 8.6 8.0 9.6 RMSE: 13.7 14.9 15.5 9.5 14.0 13.8 11.7 10.5 12.1 RMAE: 160.4 169.7 153.4 47.2 165.0 160.8 123.7 101.0 130.6 CORR: 0.526 0.466 0.295 0.807 0.505 0.510 0.694 0.781 0.680 Pval: 0.002 0.008 0.107 0.000 0.004 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 41.1 Standard Deviation: 21.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 3.8 -0.9 -1.1 1.9 1.0 0.9 -0.5 0.5 MAE: 14.7 14.1 20.2 8.4 14.3 15.4 12.0 11.1 13.5 RMSE: 18.3 19.9 22.7 11.6 18.7 19.0 15.3 13.7 16.3 RMAE: 65.5 73.6 80.7 36.6 69.3 70.5 57.7 50.0 61.5 CORR: 0.525 0.464 0.476 0.842 0.505 0.510 0.712 0.793 0.650 Pval: 0.002 0.009 0.007 0.000 0.004 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 62.7 Standard Deviation: 23.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -0.2 -1.4 1.4 -0.1 -0.5 0.4 0.7 -0.1 MAE: 15.3 14.4 19.4 7.2 14.8 15.8 11.9 10.7 13.3 RMSE: 18.9 19.6 21.5 11.0 19.1 19.0 15.2 13.5 16.0 RMAE: 31.2 27.6 39.1 15.0 29.3 31.7 24.0 22.3 27.0 CORR: 0.571 0.530 0.481 0.879 0.559 0.565 0.764 0.828 0.724 Pval: 0.001 0.002 0.006 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 85.5 Standard Deviation: 26.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -2.5 5.6 -0.3 -1.2 1.0 -0.9 -0.1 0.7 MAE: 15.5 14.2 21.3 7.1 14.7 16.1 11.4 10.1 12.9 RMSE: 20.2 21.9 25.3 10.7 20.6 20.8 15.5 13.3 16.8 RMAE: 20.9 17.5 27.6 10.0 19.1 20.2 15.1 14.1 16.6 CORR: 0.656 0.592 0.619 0.916 0.639 0.644 0.832 0.886 0.779 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 105.9 Standard Deviation: 37.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.9 6.3 -0.9 -0.9 1.5 -0.9 -0.5 0.9 MAE: 21.0 19.3 29.9 15.2 20.0 22.4 16.5 15.8 19.1 RMSE: 27.4 28.4 33.7 18.9 27.6 27.8 23.2 21.4 24.3 RMAE: 22.5 21.0 32.2 16.1 21.7 24.1 17.8 16.9 20.5 CORR: 0.674 0.648 0.499 0.861 0.667 0.662 0.786 0.824 0.762 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 118.6 Standard Deviation: 34.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -2.0 4.2 -0.3 -1.0 0.8 -0.8 -0.1 0.5 MAE: 18.7 17.6 24.9 9.5 18.2 19.5 14.4 13.0 16.3 RMSE: 23.4 25.4 28.5 12.0 23.9 24.4 18.3 15.7 20.0 RMAE: 17.5 16.3 22.6 9.0 16.9 18.2 13.6 12.4 15.4 CORR: 0.733 0.694 0.670 0.938 0.722 0.716 0.850 0.898 0.814 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 111.9 Standard Deviation: 33.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -3.2 7.4 -0.9 -1.6 1.4 -1.4 -0.4 0.8 MAE: 18.2 16.9 23.9 12.6 17.5 19.1 15.0 14.1 16.5 RMSE: 23.4 24.9 28.0 15.7 23.8 24.0 19.5 17.7 20.6 RMAE: 18.8 16.8 25.5 13.5 17.7 19.8 15.5 14.8 17.3 CORR: 0.720 0.716 0.631 0.886 0.719 0.709 0.817 0.856 0.793 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 95.5 Standard Deviation: 34.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -2.0 9.4 0.1 -1.0 2.5 -0.6 0.1 1.9 MAE: 20.5 19.4 27.3 11.7 19.8 22.1 16.2 14.9 18.3 RMSE: 26.8 27.9 32.1 14.6 27.1 27.3 21.2 18.7 22.8 RMAE: 26.7 23.8 36.1 15.7 25.1 28.7 21.1 20.2 24.2 CORR: 0.632 0.594 0.547 0.907 0.623 0.620 0.802 0.851 0.759 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 73.8 Standard Deviation: 31.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -0.5 -0.7 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 MAE: 17.5 15.7 22.8 8.2 16.5 18.4 13.3 12.2 15.3 RMSE: 22.6 23.7 26.4 12.0 22.9 23.0 17.8 15.5 19.1 RMAE: 32.0 28.0 40.5 13.8 29.9 33.1 23.4 21.3 27.3 CORR: 0.687 0.666 0.529 0.923 0.681 0.676 0.823 0.875 0.802 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 51.0 Standard Deviation: 28.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -0.6 9.4 0.8 -0.3 2.9 0.1 0.4 2.4 MAE: 15.5 14.7 24.8 9.4 15.1 16.8 12.8 12.0 14.3 RMSE: 21.3 22.2 28.3 14.1 21.5 21.8 18.0 16.5 19.0 RMAE: 43.0 36.2 77.3 29.8 39.6 49.4 35.3 35.5 43.5 CORR: 0.665 0.660 0.390 0.868 0.663 0.650 0.774 0.822 0.756 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.030 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 30.6 Standard Deviation: 25.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -12.7 10.5 0.2 -6.4 -0.7 -4.2 0.1 -0.5 MAE: 21.0 19.1 23.1 10.7 20.0 20.8 16.5 15.2 17.9 RMSE: 24.2 27.8 26.9 15.5 25.1 24.2 20.1 17.6 20.6 RMAE: 156.7 71.9 253.7 140.9 114.3 159.7 118.0 141.0 151.1 CORR: 0.295 0.243 0.219 0.792 0.280 0.292 0.724 0.797 0.698 Pval: 0.107 0.188 0.236 0.000 0.126 0.112 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 17.4 Standard Deviation: 18.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -3.0 4.6 1.2 -1.5 0.6 -0.6 0.6 0.7 MAE: 13.6 12.7 16.8 8.8 13.1 14.0 11.6 11.1 12.3 RMSE: 16.9 18.4 19.6 11.8 17.2 17.3 14.4 13.4 15.1 RMAE: 157.3 160.0 167.0 110.2 158.5 158.5 142.1 133.2 144.5 CORR: 0.348 0.210 0.258 0.761 0.310 0.309 0.657 0.703 0.569 Pval: 0.055 0.256 0.162 0.000 0.090 0.091 0.000 0.000 0.001 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