Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 24.1 Standard Deviation: 15.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.1 3.7 0.2 -0.5 1.9 1.3 1.1 -0.2 0.9 MAE: 10.0 9.0 11.9 6.2 9.5 10.0 8.3 8.0 9.0 RMSE: 12.5 15.3 13.5 9.3 13.3 12.7 11.4 10.4 11.5 RMAE: 155.5 205.2 137.8 123.4 180.2 164.3 160.9 139.0 153.8 CORR: 0.554 0.417 0.493 0.786 0.503 0.545 0.655 0.736 0.653 Pval: 0.003 0.031 0.009 0.000 0.007 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 39.2 Standard Deviation: 21.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -5.1 8.6 -0.7 -2.5 1.2 -1.9 -0.3 0.7 MAE: 15.2 13.8 19.8 9.7 14.5 15.5 12.5 11.8 13.5 RMSE: 20.1 21.0 24.5 14.6 20.3 20.5 17.5 16.3 18.3 RMAE: 63.4 47.8 88.8 27.8 55.6 64.9 44.5 42.9 53.9 CORR: 0.388 0.375 0.237 0.744 0.384 0.356 0.624 0.694 0.559 Pval: 0.046 0.054 0.235 0.000 0.048 0.069 0.001 0.000 0.002 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 60.4 Standard Deviation: 22.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 2.3 -5.4 1.6 1.2 -1.0 1.3 0.8 -0.4 MAE: 15.3 14.2 18.4 12.0 14.7 15.6 13.4 13.2 14.2 RMSE: 18.8 20.0 21.3 15.8 19.1 19.0 17.4 16.6 17.6 RMAE: 32.2 29.8 37.1 24.8 31.0 32.5 27.9 27.0 29.3 CORR: 0.550 0.489 0.461 0.715 0.533 0.541 0.642 0.682 0.627 Pval: 0.003 0.010 0.016 0.000 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 85.2 Standard Deviation: 28.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -5.0 -6.5 0.3 -2.5 -3.8 -1.6 0.1 -2.8 MAE: 17.5 15.7 25.2 12.7 16.6 17.9 14.5 14.4 16.0 RMSE: 23.5 25.3 29.0 17.2 24.0 24.2 20.7 19.5 21.8 RMAE: 23.8 18.7 33.9 17.1 21.2 23.7 18.9 19.5 21.4 CORR: 0.545 0.490 0.247 0.791 0.529 0.526 0.680 0.727 0.652 Pval: 0.003 0.010 0.214 0.000 0.005 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 106.7 Standard Deviation: 39.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -0.5 -2.7 0.6 -0.2 -1.1 0.0 0.3 -0.6 MAE: 18.9 18.1 24.1 11.1 18.5 19.5 14.9 13.5 16.6 RMSE: 24.2 25.4 28.5 16.4 24.5 25.0 20.5 18.7 21.6 RMAE: 19.2 18.2 25.1 10.6 18.7 19.9 15.0 13.6 16.7 CORR: 0.789 0.766 0.745 0.908 0.783 0.778 0.855 0.881 0.835 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 121.0 Standard Deviation: 35.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 1.7 -1.0 -0.1 0.8 0.2 0.5 -0.0 0.1 MAE: 18.1 16.8 25.4 7.4 17.4 19.5 13.1 11.5 15.6 RMSE: 24.1 25.6 29.5 9.7 24.5 24.7 17.7 14.6 19.5 RMAE: 16.5 15.8 23.3 6.9 16.1 18.1 12.1 10.4 14.4 CORR: 0.728 0.689 0.563 0.961 0.718 0.714 0.873 0.920 0.845 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 115.0 Standard Deviation: 33.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -0.3 -1.5 0.7 -0.1 -0.6 0.1 0.3 -0.3 MAE: 19.9 18.1 23.0 10.7 18.9 19.8 14.8 13.6 16.5 RMSE: 24.7 26.2 27.4 14.0 25.1 25.0 20.0 17.6 21.1 RMAE: 19.4 18.2 21.5 10.8 18.7 19.3 15.0 13.7 16.4 CORR: 0.677 0.638 0.648 0.910 0.666 0.674 0.809 0.862 0.778 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 100.0 Standard Deviation: 33.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -4.2 11.3 -0.6 -2.1 2.4 -1.6 -0.3 1.6 MAE: 22.6 21.8 32.0 9.4 22.1 23.9 17.2 14.9 19.8 RMSE: 29.9 31.4 36.1 16.1 30.3 30.5 23.3 20.3 25.1 RMAE: 26.7 25.2 38.7 9.8 25.9 28.9 19.4 16.4 23.3 CORR: 0.463 0.387 0.287 0.879 0.446 0.434 0.782 0.833 0.721 Pval: 0.015 0.046 0.147 0.000 0.020 0.024 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 78.7 Standard Deviation: 30.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -5.4 -0.4 -0.0 -2.7 -1.9 -1.8 -0.0 -1.5 MAE: 18.8 17.9 19.6 7.5 18.3 18.6 13.9 11.9 15.1 RMSE: 21.9 23.0 22.5 10.5 22.2 22.1 16.7 14.2 17.9 RMAE: 31.3 28.0 33.6 14.5 29.7 30.7 23.5 21.2 25.6 CORR: 0.687 0.674 0.669 0.938 0.684 0.683 0.849 0.895 0.815 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 54.0 Standard Deviation: 27.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 2.8 0.8 -0.4 1.4 1.2 0.8 -0.2 0.8 MAE: 16.7 15.2 21.0 10.2 15.9 16.7 13.0 11.9 14.2 RMSE: 20.1 22.2 23.5 13.3 20.6 20.4 16.9 15.2 17.6 RMAE: 44.4 47.2 53.9 27.8 45.8 47.2 36.9 31.8 39.9 CORR: 0.693 0.613 0.575 0.879 0.675 0.684 0.807 0.845 0.786 Pval: 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 32.4 Standard Deviation: 24.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -3.5 9.7 1.4 -1.7 2.1 -0.7 0.7 1.9 MAE: 18.3 16.7 23.6 13.3 17.3 18.5 15.6 15.5 17.0 RMSE: 23.5 25.6 27.3 17.5 24.0 24.1 20.6 19.1 21.5 RMAE: 70.7 63.1 116.7 51.6 66.4 80.6 60.0 60.0 72.5 CORR: 0.292 0.190 0.163 0.703 0.248 0.241 0.582 0.678 0.512 Pval: 0.139 0.343 0.415 0.000 0.212 0.227 0.001 0.000 0.006 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 18.1 Standard Deviation: 17.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -3.1 2.0 -0.8 -1.5 -0.3 -1.3 -0.4 -0.5 MAE: 12.0 11.2 15.7 7.5 11.5 12.3 9.9 9.5 10.9 RMSE: 16.1 17.0 19.1 11.5 16.3 16.3 13.8 12.7 14.4 RMAE: 146.3 119.2 209.1 64.1 132.2 153.5 106.7 101.9 128.7 CORR: 0.384 0.326 0.057 0.753 0.365 0.366 0.660 0.739 0.655 Pval: 0.048 0.097 0.776 0.000 0.061 0.060 0.000 0.000 0.000 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