Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 1.0 Standard Deviation: 0.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.3 -0.3 -0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 MAE: 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 RMSE: 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 RMAE: 46.9 24.7 67.5 39.8 33.5 44.8 30.1 36.4 39.4 CORR: 0.227 0.793 -0.404 -0.616 0.572 0.110 0.248 -0.185 -0.062 Pval: 0.714 0.109 0.500 0.268 0.313 0.861 0.688 0.766 0.922 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 1.0 Standard Deviation: 0.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 MAE: 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 RMSE: 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 RMAE: 72.0 82.3 63.1 85.6 77.2 72.5 80.0 78.8 75.8 CORR: -0.277 -0.727 0.063 -0.858 -0.507 -0.215 -0.650 -0.599 -0.359 Pval: 0.652 0.164 0.919 0.063 0.384 0.728 0.235 0.286 0.553 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 0.6 Standard Deviation: 0.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.4 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.2 MAE: 1.7 1.9 2.0 0.9 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.5 RMSE: 2.0 2.2 2.5 1.1 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.2 1.7 RMAE: 120.0 172.2 142.1 56.3 146.1 144.8 82.8 38.1 97.6 CORR: -0.083 -0.074 -0.231 0.169 -0.078 -0.140 -0.028 0.171 -0.130 Pval: 0.895 0.906 0.709 0.786 0.900 0.823 0.965 0.783 0.835 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 1.8 Standard Deviation: 1.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 2.5 4.0 3.3 0.4 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.5 2.6 MAE: 2.5 4.0 3.3 0.9 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.5 2.6 RMSE: 3.6 5.5 5.1 1.0 4.5 4.7 3.1 1.9 3.6 RMAE: 73.1 111.3 79.3 48.0 92.2 87.9 66.4 44.0 69.6 CORR: -0.761 -0.844 -0.790 0.671 -0.817 -0.806 -0.851 -0.856 -0.824 Pval: 0.135 0.072 0.112 0.215 0.092 0.099 0.067 0.064 0.087 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 3.0 Standard Deviation: 1.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.5 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 MAE: 2.1 2.0 1.5 0.8 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 RMSE: 2.9 2.9 1.6 0.9 2.8 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.7 RMAE: 93.6 88.6 59.4 26.8 87.8 65.0 60.5 51.5 50.2 CORR: -0.193 -0.220 0.444 0.923 -0.211 0.004 0.236 0.620 0.326 Pval: 0.756 0.722 0.454 0.025 0.733 0.995 0.702 0.265 0.593 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 4.8 Standard Deviation: 2.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 2.2 3.5 0.7 2.6 2.9 2.1 2.8 2.4 2.3 MAE: 2.6 3.8 1.1 2.9 3.2 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.5 RMSE: 3.1 5.0 1.2 3.8 4.0 2.9 3.9 3.4 3.1 RMAE: 71.9 108.6 28.3 81.8 90.2 69.6 83.5 70.9 69.7 CORR: 0.359 -0.048 0.938 0.400 0.097 0.447 0.228 0.389 0.431 Pval: 0.553 0.939 0.018 0.505 0.876 0.450 0.713 0.518 0.469 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 5.4 Standard Deviation: 2.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.6 -1.9 0.4 -0.5 -1.7 -1.0 -1.3 -1.0 -0.9 MAE: 3.2 3.3 2.4 2.1 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7 RMSE: 3.6 3.8 2.5 2.3 3.7 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.9 RMAE: 60.3 59.2 52.1 42.6 59.8 54.1 54.0 51.5 51.2 CORR: -0.037 -0.097 -0.146 0.246 -0.067 -0.079 -0.011 0.053 -0.028 Pval: 0.953 0.877 0.814 0.690 0.915 0.900 0.986 0.933 0.964 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 5.4 Standard Deviation: 2.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 2.3 2.5 3.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.5 MAE: 3.7 4.1 6.7 3.7 3.9 4.7 3.7 3.6 4.2 RMSE: 5.3 5.4 8.2 4.8 5.3 6.2 5.1 5.0 5.8 RMAE: 106.6 125.9 163.8 104.3 116.2 131.3 108.9 103.0 120.3 CORR: -0.237 -0.409 -0.157 -0.313 -0.322 -0.242 -0.324 -0.273 -0.257 Pval: 0.702 0.494 0.801 0.608 0.597 0.695 0.595 0.656 0.676 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 4.6 Standard Deviation: 2.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.3 -1.5 MAE: 2.0 2.6 1.6 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.0 RMSE: 2.6 3.5 2.3 2.2 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.5 RMAE: 46.3 57.0 33.2 31.5 51.7 45.5 45.0 38.9 42.0 CORR: 0.261 0.042 0.604 0.666 0.144 0.286 0.256 0.422 0.352 Pval: 0.671 0.946 0.281 0.219 0.817 0.641 0.678 0.479 0.561 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 3.6 Standard Deviation: 1.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.7 -1.6 -1.8 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.0 -0.8 -1.2 MAE: 3.0 3.2 2.2 2.5 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 RMSE: 3.7 3.4 2.7 2.8 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 RMAE: 158.3 137.1 67.6 127.5 147.7 121.0 141.0 142.9 122.6 CORR: -0.853 -0.598 0.097 -0.393 -0.753 -0.574 -0.693 -0.730 -0.566 Pval: 0.066 0.287 0.876 0.513 0.142 0.311 0.195 0.162 0.319 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 2.4 Standard Deviation: 1.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.8 -1.7 -1.9 0.3 -1.7 -1.8 -1.1 -0.8 -1.3 MAE: 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 RMSE: 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 RMAE: 76.3 80.8 79.5 77.5 78.5 75.8 78.2 76.9 76.3 CORR: 0.221 0.221 0.221 0.198 0.221 0.221 0.210 0.206 0.212 Pval: 0.721 0.721 0.721 0.749 0.721 0.721 0.734 0.740 0.732 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 1.8 Standard Deviation: 1.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 0.0 -1.3 -1.3 -0.9 -0.6 -1.0 MAE: 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 RMSE: 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 RMAE: 74.1 72.1 73.6 144.9 72.4 69.5 95.0 107.2 87.3 CORR: 0.372 -0.452 0.475 0.356 0.030 0.184 0.268 0.360 0.296 Pval: 0.537 0.444 0.419 0.556 0.962 0.767 0.662 0.552 0.629 ------------------------------------------------