Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 26.1 Standard Deviation: 16.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 1.1 -1.4 -0.0 0.5 -0.1 0.3 -0.0 -0.1 MAE: 8.0 6.5 11.4 2.4 7.3 8.5 5.6 5.1 7.0 RMSE: 10.1 11.1 12.7 4.3 10.3 10.3 7.6 6.3 8.2 RMAE: 74.0 51.4 98.5 57.0 62.7 71.6 60.7 65.3 67.9 CORR: 0.787 0.740 0.675 0.965 0.775 0.776 0.890 0.926 0.866 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 44.5 Standard Deviation: 24.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -0.9 1.6 -0.4 -0.5 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 MAE: 15.4 13.5 22.0 10.0 14.4 16.4 12.3 12.0 14.3 RMSE: 20.0 21.3 25.4 12.5 20.4 20.5 16.8 15.1 17.8 RMAE: 62.1 57.0 78.3 41.3 59.6 64.1 51.9 50.1 57.2 CORR: 0.551 0.511 0.282 0.855 0.538 0.524 0.718 0.794 0.681 Pval: 0.003 0.006 0.154 0.000 0.004 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 69.7 Standard Deviation: 25.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -1.4 2.0 1.4 -0.7 0.2 -0.0 0.7 0.5 MAE: 14.5 13.0 24.6 10.6 13.7 16.3 11.7 11.3 14.1 RMSE: 19.6 20.6 27.6 14.5 19.9 20.5 17.3 16.1 18.4 RMAE: 25.6 22.1 44.7 19.0 23.8 29.3 21.1 20.8 25.8 CORR: 0.619 0.585 0.243 0.815 0.609 0.569 0.720 0.771 0.679 Pval: 0.001 0.001 0.222 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 98.0 Standard Deviation: 30.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -4.2 8.6 1.5 -2.1 1.5 -0.9 0.7 1.5 MAE: 16.3 14.6 23.7 8.3 15.5 17.6 12.7 11.8 14.7 RMSE: 20.6 21.9 27.0 12.8 20.9 21.1 16.2 14.2 17.4 RMAE: 18.8 15.9 30.2 13.2 17.3 20.9 15.6 15.4 18.3 CORR: 0.747 0.724 0.562 0.911 0.741 0.734 0.858 0.897 0.841 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 122.9 Standard Deviation: 43.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 0.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.1 MAE: 16.1 13.7 19.6 7.2 14.8 16.1 11.3 10.2 13.3 RMSE: 18.8 25.4 20.8 8.9 20.6 19.5 15.6 12.5 16.1 RMAE: 15.1 13.7 18.1 6.9 14.3 15.1 10.8 9.5 12.6 CORR: 0.904 0.822 0.881 0.979 0.882 0.895 0.934 0.959 0.931 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 138.3 Standard Deviation: 40.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -1.0 0.4 -0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 MAE: 23.5 19.9 29.6 6.2 21.5 23.4 15.4 13.6 18.1 RMSE: 29.0 33.9 33.7 8.1 30.3 29.6 21.3 16.4 23.0 RMAE: 19.0 15.8 23.9 5.3 17.2 18.8 12.5 11.2 14.7 CORR: 0.696 0.560 0.578 0.980 0.661 0.680 0.863 0.926 0.836 Pval: 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 130.9 Standard Deviation: 37.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 -0.8 5.1 -1.4 -0.4 1.4 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 MAE: 18.2 16.2 27.6 9.2 17.2 19.4 13.5 12.3 15.8 RMSE: 24.2 26.7 30.0 13.1 24.9 25.0 19.3 16.8 20.7 RMAE: 14.5 12.9 22.8 7.3 13.7 15.7 10.6 9.5 12.5 CORR: 0.769 0.715 0.705 0.939 0.755 0.758 0.864 0.901 0.839 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 112.5 Standard Deviation: 35.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -2.6 -2.3 -0.5 -1.3 -1.6 -1.0 -0.3 -1.3 MAE: 19.9 18.2 29.9 10.4 19.1 21.5 15.7 14.4 18.3 RMSE: 25.2 29.5 34.2 21.7 26.4 26.1 23.4 22.0 23.8 RMAE: 20.4 17.7 30.1 12.2 19.0 21.2 16.2 15.4 18.5 CORR: 0.709 0.605 0.596 0.795 0.679 0.692 0.757 0.792 0.747 Pval: 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 87.3 Standard Deviation: 33.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 5.4 -3.7 -1.4 2.7 0.6 1.3 -0.7 0.1 MAE: 14.8 12.7 20.2 6.4 13.8 15.2 10.1 9.1 12.2 RMSE: 17.5 20.4 21.6 8.3 18.3 18.0 13.2 10.8 14.3 RMAE: 22.2 22.0 28.8 10.6 22.1 23.4 16.4 14.1 19.0 CORR: 0.852 0.830 0.771 0.970 0.845 0.842 0.920 0.950 0.906 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 59.0 Standard Deviation: 30.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.3 4.9 -1.3 -0.7 1.2 -0.9 -0.6 0.6 MAE: 15.0 13.4 20.3 10.3 14.2 15.6 12.2 12.2 13.5 RMSE: 18.4 19.2 23.0 13.9 18.5 19.0 15.6 14.8 16.7 RMAE: 33.5 29.1 51.3 24.2 31.3 37.0 27.9 28.2 32.8 CORR: 0.794 0.789 0.676 0.889 0.796 0.780 0.857 0.877 0.835 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 34.1 Standard Deviation: 24.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -5.0 4.6 -0.8 -2.5 -0.1 -1.9 -0.4 -0.3 MAE: 14.8 13.3 21.0 4.7 14.1 15.4 10.3 8.9 11.9 RMSE: 19.0 21.2 24.0 8.6 19.6 19.5 14.2 11.5 15.2 RMAE: 54.5 44.3 86.0 19.7 49.4 58.3 36.3 32.2 43.5 CORR: 0.632 0.565 0.461 0.938 0.613 0.609 0.836 0.906 0.802 Pval: 0.000 0.002 0.016 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 18.7 Standard Deviation: 18.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.6 -0.6 2.4 -0.2 0.0 0.8 -0.1 0.2 0.5 MAE: 9.3 8.6 13.3 5.4 9.0 10.1 7.3 6.6 8.6 RMSE: 12.4 13.5 15.5 8.0 12.8 12.9 9.5 8.0 10.3 RMAE: 89.3 45.8 75.4 29.9 67.5 65.6 51.1 53.7 53.9 CORR: 0.740 0.676 0.632 0.901 0.720 0.711 0.889 0.929 0.839 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 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