Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 7.1 Standard Deviation: 9.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.4 -7.1 1.4 -3.4 -3.7 -2.0 -3.6 -1.9 -2.4 MAE: 10.1 7.1 11.6 6.6 7.9 9.1 7.3 8.1 8.4 RMSE: 11.6 12.1 12.5 9.8 11.2 11.4 10.6 10.5 10.8 RMAE: 166.9 100.0 216.8 78.9 83.4 127.9 68.4 102.5 105.5 CORR: -0.411 -99.000 -0.534 0.367 -0.411 -0.486 0.026 0.026 -0.194 Pval: 0.360 -99.000 0.217 0.417 0.360 0.269 0.957 0.957 0.676 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 6.3 Standard Deviation: 10.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 6.6 5.6 8.9 7.0 6.1 7.0 6.4 6.8 7.0 MAE: 15.6 14.2 17.5 16.3 14.9 15.6 15.4 15.9 15.8 RMSE: 19.7 18.6 21.7 21.7 19.2 19.9 19.6 20.3 20.0 RMAE: 251.1 246.2 292.3 108.3 248.6 258.2 201.9 179.7 220.7 CORR: -0.530 -0.551 -0.528 -0.378 -0.542 -0.540 -0.503 -0.467 -0.514 Pval: 0.222 0.200 0.224 0.403 0.209 0.211 0.250 0.291 0.238 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 5.3 Standard Deviation: 10.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 7.6 9.2 6.8 10.0 8.4 7.9 9.0 8.8 8.4 MAE: 8.7 10.0 8.7 12.0 9.2 9.1 10.2 10.3 9.5 RMSE: 12.3 13.2 11.4 15.2 12.7 12.2 13.1 13.3 12.6 RMAE: 22.9 21.4 25.3 77.1 20.7 22.1 39.5 48.5 32.5 CORR: 0.565 0.572 0.563 0.706 0.573 0.570 0.641 0.658 0.627 Pval: 0.187 0.180 0.188 0.076 0.179 0.181 0.121 0.108 0.132 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 20.3 Standard Deviation: 11.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.9 -1.2 4.8 -0.4 -1.6 0.5 -1.2 -1.1 0.3 MAE: 9.0 9.0 11.8 10.4 9.0 7.3 9.5 9.7 7.5 RMSE: 10.2 9.9 14.9 13.2 9.9 8.8 10.4 10.8 8.4 RMAE: 49.2 50.6 64.6 51.5 49.9 45.4 50.4 50.3 44.9 CORR: 0.586 0.575 0.641 0.445 0.584 0.698 0.557 0.543 0.700 Pval: 0.167 0.177 0.121 0.316 0.169 0.081 0.194 0.208 0.080 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 43.3 Standard Deviation: 18.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -17.1 -20.6 -16.1 3.1 -18.8 -17.9 -11.5 -7.0 -12.7 MAE: 32.4 30.5 33.1 34.9 31.5 32.0 31.9 32.5 32.2 RMSE: 34.9 32.2 36.3 52.0 33.3 34.1 36.7 41.0 36.3 RMAE: 84.0 78.3 86.5 76.2 81.1 82.9 74.9 73.3 77.8 CORR: 0.565 0.566 0.587 0.158 0.566 0.575 0.403 0.339 0.454 Pval: 0.186 0.185 0.166 0.735 0.185 0.177 0.370 0.456 0.307 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 63.6 Standard Deviation: 26.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -8.1 -4.3 -21.6 -15.6 -6.2 -11.3 -9.3 -11.8 -12.4 MAE: 21.2 21.5 26.0 24.7 21.4 20.1 20.4 20.3 20.1 RMSE: 26.8 26.9 31.4 31.3 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.8 27.3 RMAE: 32.0 33.8 38.0 37.1 32.9 29.0 31.2 30.6 29.4 CORR: 0.347 0.275 0.488 0.206 0.313 0.396 0.318 0.323 0.379 Pval: 0.446 0.551 0.267 0.657 0.494 0.379 0.486 0.480 0.402 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 66.1 Standard Deviation: 33.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.2 2.5 -2.3 7.5 1.4 0.2 3.4 3.9 2.0 MAE: 33.9 33.2 35.4 28.0 33.5 34.1 31.7 31.0 32.6 RMSE: 41.9 44.8 43.6 35.7 43.2 43.2 40.5 38.5 41.1 RMAE: 66.1 68.8 68.4 61.4 67.4 67.8 65.4 63.8 66.2 CORR: 0.079 0.127 0.092 0.306 0.106 0.102 0.164 0.188 0.145 Pval: 0.866 0.786 0.845 0.505 0.822 0.829 0.726 0.687 0.756 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 63.0 Standard Deviation: 28.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -8.8 -8.3 -10.6 7.1 -8.6 -9.2 -3.3 -0.9 -5.2 MAE: 31.9 29.9 30.8 38.0 30.9 30.9 29.5 29.3 29.8 RMSE: 35.5 34.3 35.7 46.9 34.8 34.9 36.8 39.1 36.3 RMAE: 86.4 83.4 75.6 107.7 84.9 81.8 82.1 81.4 80.5 CORR: 0.251 0.302 0.191 -0.205 0.277 0.253 0.113 0.011 0.132 Pval: 0.587 0.510 0.682 0.660 0.547 0.584 0.810 0.982 0.778 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 56.1 Standard Deviation: 22.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 33.5 26.8 34.8 40.2 30.1 31.7 33.5 36.8 33.8 MAE: 47.1 40.1 48.1 54.3 43.6 45.1 47.2 50.7 47.4 RMSE: 50.5 42.7 50.5 58.3 46.5 47.7 50.3 54.3 50.2 RMAE: 106.9 94.3 109.1 124.7 100.6 103.4 108.6 115.8 108.8 CORR: 0.103 0.034 0.135 -0.017 0.073 0.096 0.039 0.041 0.064 Pval: 0.826 0.943 0.773 0.971 0.876 0.838 0.934 0.930 0.891 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 47.9 Standard Deviation: 23.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 20.3 22.5 33.8 28.8 21.4 25.6 23.9 24.6 26.4 MAE: 45.7 47.7 55.1 52.6 46.7 49.5 45.2 46.5 46.7 RMSE: 52.4 54.4 64.3 58.2 53.4 56.8 51.7 51.7 54.4 RMAE: 146.1 155.6 192.6 157.0 150.9 164.8 148.4 148.1 158.1 CORR: -0.337 -0.391 -0.436 0.077 -0.364 -0.392 -0.212 -0.113 -0.280 Pval: 0.460 0.386 0.328 0.870 0.422 0.385 0.649 0.810 0.543 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 30.0 Standard Deviation: 23.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 2.8 6.2 3.0 -5.2 4.5 4.0 1.3 -1.2 1.7 MAE: 19.8 22.1 20.0 35.1 21.0 20.6 25.7 27.5 24.3 RMSE: 24.9 29.1 27.6 43.5 26.9 26.9 31.2 33.1 30.2 RMAE: 88.4 103.3 76.5 143.3 95.9 89.4 111.7 115.9 102.9 CORR: 0.398 0.275 0.371 -0.181 0.336 0.351 0.131 0.057 0.195 Pval: 0.376 0.551 0.412 0.698 0.461 0.439 0.780 0.904 0.675 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 18.9 Standard Deviation: 19.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -2.1 -7.1 -0.3 13.9 -4.6 -3.2 1.5 5.9 1.1 MAE: 18.2 16.6 20.8 34.1 17.4 17.9 20.8 24.9 20.5 RMSE: 23.3 22.4 25.6 37.5 22.6 23.3 25.5 28.6 25.4 RMAE: 218.2 152.8 239.0 670.9 185.4 197.8 332.4 435.6 305.3 CORR: -0.105 -0.009 -0.398 -0.621 -0.063 -0.198 -0.439 -0.533 -0.448 Pval: 0.823 0.985 0.377 0.136 0.893 0.670 0.324 0.218 0.314 ------------------------------------------------