Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 7.1 Standard Deviation: 9.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -5.7 -7.1 1.7 -6.0 -6.4 -3.7 -6.3 -5.9 -4.3 MAE: 6.9 7.1 14.5 6.1 7.0 9.0 6.7 6.5 8.0 RMSE: 11.9 12.1 16.0 10.3 12.0 12.5 11.4 11.0 11.8 RMAE: 53.0 100.0 239.9 83.0 76.5 94.9 78.6 68.0 71.9 CORR: -0.514 -99.000 -0.806 0.710 -0.514 -0.792 0.498 0.498 -0.669 Pval: 0.237 -99.000 0.029 0.074 0.237 0.034 0.255 0.255 0.100 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 6.3 Standard Deviation: 10.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.7 -6.3 4.4 -4.1 -3.5 -0.8 -3.7 -2.4 -1.6 MAE: 8.2 6.3 9.6 7.5 6.9 6.8 7.0 7.6 6.7 RMSE: 12.2 11.8 11.0 11.9 11.5 10.5 11.6 11.8 10.7 RMAE: 71.1 100.0 194.7 85.4 60.5 77.1 60.8 55.6 64.0 CORR: -0.578 -99.000 0.221 -0.547 -0.578 -0.156 -0.659 -0.659 -0.305 Pval: 0.174 -99.000 0.633 0.204 0.174 0.738 0.107 0.107 0.506 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 5.3 Standard Deviation: 10.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 9.2 7.4 11.9 2.2 8.3 9.5 6.3 5.7 7.7 MAE: 14.0 14.3 16.7 9.3 14.1 15.0 12.5 11.6 13.6 RMSE: 16.3 16.4 20.8 12.3 16.2 17.4 14.5 13.7 15.7 RMAE: 72.4 89.5 68.2 50.0 80.9 76.7 70.6 61.2 70.0 CORR: -0.074 -0.376 -0.178 -0.191 -0.231 -0.216 -0.237 -0.125 -0.225 Pval: 0.875 0.405 0.702 0.682 0.618 0.642 0.609 0.789 0.628 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 20.3 Standard Deviation: 11.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 4.2 -0.8 9.0 -3.4 1.7 4.1 -0.0 0.4 2.2 MAE: 7.3 5.6 15.0 7.4 5.7 8.5 5.2 5.5 6.9 RMSE: 8.6 7.0 19.3 8.8 6.8 9.7 6.8 7.3 8.4 RMAE: 42.7 25.0 80.0 45.4 30.7 45.9 29.1 33.1 37.6 CORR: 0.764 0.792 0.607 0.702 0.802 0.721 0.783 0.763 0.741 Pval: 0.046 0.034 0.148 0.078 0.030 0.068 0.038 0.046 0.057 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 43.3 Standard Deviation: 18.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -4.6 -7.6 -4.6 -9.0 -6.1 -5.6 -7.1 -6.8 -6.4 MAE: 10.7 13.5 24.0 15.1 11.5 12.0 12.6 12.5 11.3 RMSE: 16.4 18.3 27.6 21.0 16.9 18.1 17.9 18.1 17.9 RMAE: 24.1 29.6 58.4 38.2 25.4 23.1 29.6 30.1 23.0 CORR: 0.541 0.454 0.298 -0.001 0.589 0.417 0.654 0.527 0.426 Pval: 0.210 0.307 0.517 0.998 0.164 0.352 0.111 0.224 0.341 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 63.6 Standard Deviation: 26.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -8.3 -17.1 -7.5 -8.4 -12.7 -11.0 -11.3 -8.3 -10.3 MAE: 20.2 26.3 21.4 32.8 23.1 21.7 26.3 26.5 24.4 RMSE: 27.7 32.9 27.8 40.8 30.0 28.9 31.9 32.6 30.4 RMAE: 33.2 41.7 36.2 54.0 37.2 34.9 42.6 43.6 39.5 CORR: 0.039 -0.032 0.054 -0.331 -0.008 0.016 -0.300 -0.336 -0.291 Pval: 0.934 0.945 0.908 0.468 0.986 0.974 0.513 0.462 0.526 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 66.1 Standard Deviation: 33.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 8.3 6.6 -0.5 9.4 7.4 4.8 8.1 8.8 5.9 MAE: 30.9 33.5 26.7 30.1 31.6 29.7 29.7 27.8 28.7 RMSE: 35.4 38.1 34.6 35.3 36.6 34.8 34.8 33.4 33.4 RMAE: 59.1 62.9 46.6 57.8 60.1 55.1 58.0 55.5 54.7 CORR: 0.055 -0.007 -0.052 0.427 0.016 0.002 0.245 0.346 0.237 Pval: 0.907 0.988 0.912 0.339 0.972 0.997 0.596 0.447 0.609 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 63.0 Standard Deviation: 28.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 5.6 -3.9 11.6 2.4 0.8 4.4 1.4 4.0 3.9 MAE: 21.6 25.2 23.5 25.7 23.4 21.4 24.2 23.6 22.5 RMSE: 28.1 30.4 33.3 29.5 28.7 29.0 28.5 28.3 28.4 RMAE: 72.6 69.1 81.2 75.6 70.9 69.1 72.4 74.1 70.8 CORR: 0.278 0.151 0.327 -0.235 0.210 0.276 0.161 0.168 0.245 Pval: 0.546 0.746 0.474 0.613 0.651 0.549 0.730 0.719 0.596 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 56.1 Standard Deviation: 22.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 9.7 18.4 3.2 15.4 14.1 10.5 14.5 12.6 11.7 MAE: 16.8 20.3 13.9 24.5 18.5 17.0 20.5 20.6 18.9 RMSE: 21.7 28.2 17.4 29.9 24.7 21.6 25.4 24.6 22.7 RMAE: 41.0 51.8 28.6 61.0 46.3 40.4 51.2 50.9 45.6 CORR: 0.560 0.519 0.670 0.151 0.540 0.591 0.472 0.426 0.542 Pval: 0.191 0.233 0.100 0.747 0.211 0.162 0.285 0.341 0.209 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 47.9 Standard Deviation: 23.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.9 -2.1 9.6 5.4 -1.5 2.2 0.8 2.3 3.0 MAE: 20.6 20.7 19.2 36.0 20.7 20.2 25.7 28.2 24.1 RMSE: 23.8 23.4 23.1 46.2 23.5 22.4 27.7 31.9 25.4 RMAE: 50.3 56.7 63.5 80.2 53.5 56.8 62.1 64.9 62.5 CORR: 0.345 0.313 0.493 0.214 0.333 0.401 0.285 0.268 0.340 Pval: 0.449 0.495 0.260 0.645 0.465 0.372 0.535 0.562 0.456 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 30.0 Standard Deviation: 23.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -2.8 -4.2 7.2 -4.1 -3.5 0.1 -3.7 -3.4 -1.0 MAE: 18.6 16.6 19.9 18.8 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.6 18.0 RMSE: 21.1 22.3 23.5 23.8 21.4 21.3 21.8 22.2 21.6 RMAE: 104.2 119.8 131.2 77.9 112.0 116.5 100.3 90.5 106.6 CORR: 0.443 0.349 0.254 -0.199 0.407 0.397 0.405 0.430 0.394 Pval: 0.319 0.443 0.582 0.669 0.364 0.378 0.368 0.335 0.382 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 18.9 Standard Deviation: 19.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -11.0 -18.9 -2.9 -8.1 -14.9 -10.9 -12.6 -9.5 -10.2 MAE: 15.5 18.9 16.7 15.9 16.7 15.7 16.4 15.2 15.2 RMSE: 20.8 27.1 21.0 21.6 23.8 22.1 21.5 19.8 20.7 RMAE: 70.9 100.0 175.6 81.8 75.7 80.2 77.7 66.6 65.1 CORR: 0.486 -99.000 -0.477 0.417 0.486 0.176 0.457 0.457 0.397 Pval: 0.269 -99.000 0.279 0.353 0.269 0.705 0.302 0.302 0.377 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