Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 27.4 Standard Deviation: 17.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -7.4 -8.2 -12.4 -5.2 -7.8 -9.3 -6.9 -6.3 -8.3 MAE: 22.7 21.7 21.4 26.5 22.1 21.8 23.6 24.6 22.3 RMSE: 29.2 28.7 27.8 31.1 28.9 28.3 29.4 29.9 28.7 RMAE: 65.9 62.9 67.3 81.8 63.1 63.8 69.3 73.8 62.6 CORR: 0.009 0.058 0.008 -0.141 0.034 0.026 -0.026 -0.068 -0.019 Pval: 0.985 0.901 0.987 0.762 0.943 0.955 0.956 0.884 0.968 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 49.6 Standard Deviation: 20.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -40.5 -40.3 -7.9 -21.6 -40.4 -29.5 -34.1 -31.0 -27.6 MAE: 40.5 40.3 28.2 23.6 40.4 29.5 34.1 31.0 27.6 RMSE: 43.4 43.5 32.9 28.1 43.4 33.1 37.0 34.2 30.8 RMAE: 86.4 86.5 69.6 51.3 86.5 66.9 72.6 65.7 61.4 CORR: 0.649 0.633 0.612 0.570 0.643 0.730 0.720 0.712 0.755 Pval: 0.115 0.127 0.145 0.182 0.120 0.062 0.068 0.073 0.050 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 68.9 Standard Deviation: 28.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.4 2.8 -6.3 -0.4 0.7 -1.6 0.3 -0.9 -1.3 MAE: 22.2 20.2 31.3 31.1 21.2 24.0 24.0 26.3 24.8 RMSE: 27.7 26.8 35.0 34.7 26.9 28.5 28.3 30.2 28.7 RMAE: 36.6 37.6 51.4 53.4 37.1 41.3 41.4 44.4 42.5 CORR: 0.346 0.428 0.371 -0.355 0.397 0.392 0.241 0.065 0.302 Pval: 0.448 0.338 0.413 0.434 0.378 0.384 0.603 0.890 0.510 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 86.4 Standard Deviation: 32.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 14.0 6.2 26.6 -14.5 10.1 15.6 1.9 -0.3 8.1 MAE: 32.9 33.5 37.2 42.1 33.0 32.1 36.1 37.3 34.1 RMSE: 43.0 41.3 46.3 51.5 41.9 42.5 42.5 43.5 41.6 RMAE: 43.2 41.9 50.3 45.1 42.4 42.5 43.3 44.0 42.8 CORR: 0.223 0.158 0.341 -0.072 0.193 0.246 0.104 0.076 0.171 Pval: 0.630 0.734 0.454 0.878 0.679 0.595 0.825 0.871 0.715 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 106.3 Standard Deviation: 36.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -23.6 -17.8 -29.2 -14.1 -20.7 -23.6 -18.5 -18.9 -21.2 MAE: 38.2 35.9 44.9 37.3 37.1 38.7 36.4 37.1 37.6 RMSE: 52.2 47.9 60.1 45.3 50.0 53.0 47.9 48.1 50.5 RMAE: 38.0 37.8 42.6 38.9 37.9 38.3 37.6 37.9 37.9 CORR: -0.025 -0.030 0.034 -0.186 -0.027 -0.001 -0.068 -0.089 -0.031 Pval: 0.957 0.949 0.942 0.690 0.954 0.998 0.885 0.850 0.947 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 119.7 Standard Deviation: 47.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -24.8 -21.9 -14.3 -17.3 -23.4 -20.3 -21.3 -21.1 -19.6 MAE: 39.9 34.9 37.9 38.6 37.4 37.6 34.3 34.3 34.9 RMSE: 57.5 52.9 50.5 49.6 55.2 53.3 50.9 50.6 50.6 RMAE: 32.2 27.2 31.3 31.2 29.7 30.2 25.5 24.9 26.7 CORR: 0.344 0.409 0.330 0.224 0.376 0.364 0.369 0.337 0.361 Pval: 0.450 0.362 0.469 0.629 0.406 0.422 0.415 0.460 0.426 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 114.0 Standard Deviation: 53.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -7.4 -5.0 -1.4 3.5 -6.2 -4.6 -3.0 -1.9 -2.6 MAE: 40.9 35.5 44.3 46.1 38.2 40.2 36.3 37.7 37.9 RMSE: 54.7 51.5 56.6 58.7 53.0 53.8 53.4 54.7 53.5 RMAE: 39.0 33.5 47.7 51.0 36.2 40.1 36.2 39.2 38.8 CORR: 0.217 0.343 -0.000 0.313 0.285 0.217 0.309 0.288 0.263 Pval: 0.640 0.451 0.999 0.495 0.536 0.641 0.501 0.531 0.568 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 93.0 Standard Deviation: 43.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -6.9 -2.7 -2.2 11.2 -4.8 -3.9 0.5 2.2 -0.2 MAE: 50.0 50.6 55.0 54.2 50.3 50.6 51.3 51.7 51.4 RMSE: 58.1 60.3 59.1 71.7 59.1 58.7 61.5 62.9 60.5 RMAE: 76.3 80.2 86.0 113.8 78.2 79.8 89.8 94.6 88.2 CORR: -0.393 -0.428 -0.265 -0.642 -0.413 -0.371 -0.577 -0.616 -0.507 Pval: 0.383 0.338 0.566 0.120 0.357 0.413 0.175 0.141 0.246 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 75.0 Standard Deviation: 33.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -13.1 -8.8 -12.2 -7.4 -11.0 -11.4 -9.8 -10.3 -10.4 MAE: 24.5 22.3 26.4 27.1 23.1 23.8 21.9 22.5 22.7 RMSE: 30.7 26.8 34.9 30.1 28.6 29.7 26.8 28.1 28.5 RMAE: 35.6 36.1 40.1 52.2 35.2 36.5 37.0 39.1 37.5 CORR: 0.613 0.754 0.330 0.525 0.711 0.628 0.774 0.659 0.663 Pval: 0.144 0.050 0.470 0.227 0.073 0.131 0.041 0.107 0.105 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 57.4 Standard Deviation: 28.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -7.7 -2.0 -10.9 -24.0 -4.8 -6.9 -11.2 -15.8 -11.2 MAE: 23.1 21.8 31.4 43.3 22.5 24.3 25.6 30.0 27.1 RMSE: 27.0 24.3 39.0 45.2 25.4 28.4 29.0 33.5 30.4 RMAE: 59.0 63.3 85.8 93.5 61.1 67.5 60.5 65.6 66.8 CORR: 0.443 0.579 0.148 0.273 0.517 0.354 0.417 0.347 0.350 Pval: 0.319 0.173 0.751 0.554 0.234 0.435 0.352 0.445 0.442 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 37.6 Standard Deviation: 23.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 14.0 7.9 5.1 25.7 11.0 9.0 15.9 19.9 13.2 MAE: 35.1 30.6 32.6 51.1 32.4 32.5 38.1 43.1 36.6 RMSE: 38.3 33.5 36.5 53.0 35.7 35.4 40.8 45.1 39.1 RMAE: 93.1 77.5 87.5 140.6 83.9 85.1 101.2 116.8 97.4 CORR: -0.177 -0.087 -0.057 -0.274 -0.135 -0.109 -0.204 -0.241 -0.169 Pval: 0.704 0.853 0.903 0.552 0.772 0.816 0.661 0.603 0.717 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 24.1 Standard Deviation: 19.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 9.0 11.4 13.9 17.4 10.2 11.4 12.6 13.2 12.9 MAE: 28.3 30.2 32.6 44.5 29.2 30.3 33.3 35.0 33.1 RMSE: 31.6 33.9 35.4 52.0 32.7 33.5 37.8 40.5 37.0 RMAE: 357.0 354.5 475.0 835.8 355.8 395.5 510.6 589.6 501.7 CORR: -0.348 -0.389 -0.399 -0.363 -0.371 -0.384 -0.394 -0.378 -0.400 Pval: 0.445 0.388 0.375 0.424 0.413 0.395 0.381 0.403 0.373 ------------------------------------------------