Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 27.4 Standard Deviation: 17.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.9 -5.7 11.6 11.8 -3.3 1.7 1.7 5.5 4.2 MAE: 17.6 15.4 21.3 25.9 16.5 18.1 19.7 21.8 20.1 RMSE: 19.9 20.2 25.5 31.3 19.8 20.3 22.2 24.6 22.5 RMAE: 68.9 49.3 90.7 113.7 59.1 69.6 77.3 91.3 80.6 CORR: 0.015 -0.058 0.074 -0.078 -0.017 0.027 -0.052 -0.050 -0.015 Pval: 0.975 0.901 0.874 0.869 0.971 0.954 0.912 0.916 0.975 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 49.6 Standard Deviation: 20.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -3.8 -1.3 16.3 33.9 -2.5 3.8 9.6 15.0 11.3 MAE: 19.8 19.5 26.6 58.0 19.6 20.1 27.0 35.0 26.0 RMSE: 21.1 20.5 37.4 79.9 20.6 23.4 31.8 43.2 32.5 RMAE: 47.7 50.4 66.2 118.5 49.1 51.4 65.6 78.3 63.8 CORR: 0.249 0.258 0.226 0.440 0.260 0.249 0.413 0.421 0.375 Pval: 0.590 0.576 0.626 0.324 0.574 0.590 0.357 0.347 0.407 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 68.9 Standard Deviation: 28.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 2.9 2.7 21.1 9.1 2.8 8.9 4.9 6.0 9.0 MAE: 26.2 25.6 29.1 27.7 25.9 27.0 23.6 22.6 24.9 RMSE: 29.5 28.7 40.7 30.5 28.9 31.2 26.6 27.3 29.0 RMAE: 48.0 48.2 62.1 51.3 48.1 52.7 46.4 45.6 50.3 CORR: 0.155 0.122 0.163 0.420 0.148 0.161 0.377 0.389 0.307 Pval: 0.740 0.795 0.727 0.348 0.752 0.731 0.405 0.389 0.502 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 86.4 Standard Deviation: 32.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 6.1 12.5 12.3 6.3 9.3 10.3 8.3 6.2 9.3 MAE: 27.2 32.6 26.8 26.0 29.9 28.5 28.0 26.0 27.7 RMSE: 31.3 35.9 31.3 28.1 33.1 31.9 30.3 28.6 30.1 RMAE: 34.7 44.2 36.6 31.9 39.5 37.9 35.9 32.3 36.1 CORR: 0.378 0.188 0.486 0.537 0.299 0.392 0.435 0.503 0.468 Pval: 0.403 0.686 0.269 0.214 0.514 0.385 0.330 0.249 0.289 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 106.3 Standard Deviation: 36.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -2.1 -14.8 -7.3 2.7 -8.4 -8.1 -4.7 0.3 -5.4 MAE: 24.3 29.1 24.3 28.0 26.6 25.3 22.0 24.6 22.5 RMSE: 32.7 36.8 33.6 30.4 33.8 33.2 29.9 29.0 30.5 RMAE: 29.6 31.1 28.6 32.4 30.2 29.1 26.2 29.3 26.8 CORR: 0.426 0.365 0.428 0.621 0.422 0.453 0.574 0.596 0.557 Pval: 0.341 0.421 0.338 0.137 0.346 0.307 0.177 0.158 0.194 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 119.7 Standard Deviation: 47.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.2 -0.8 -2.3 -14.8 -1.0 -1.4 -5.6 -8.0 -4.8 MAE: 36.2 38.7 34.7 46.4 36.3 35.8 35.6 36.7 34.4 RMSE: 45.3 50.2 43.9 51.5 47.3 45.7 47.1 46.5 45.8 RMAE: 35.4 39.7 32.7 46.0 36.6 35.3 36.0 36.6 34.3 CORR: 0.294 0.071 0.380 0.107 0.171 0.264 0.187 0.249 0.271 Pval: 0.523 0.880 0.400 0.819 0.714 0.568 0.689 0.590 0.557 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 114.0 Standard Deviation: 53.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 1.1 -0.7 7.9 -3.8 0.2 2.8 -1.1 -1.3 1.1 MAE: 41.0 45.7 38.7 43.8 43.4 39.9 43.5 42.4 40.9 RMSE: 50.0 53.7 50.6 48.2 51.5 50.3 49.8 48.6 49.2 RMAE: 46.7 50.4 41.9 49.3 48.6 44.8 48.8 48.0 45.9 CORR: 0.341 0.222 0.375 0.476 0.274 0.334 0.351 0.446 0.380 Pval: 0.454 0.632 0.408 0.281 0.553 0.464 0.440 0.315 0.401 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 93.0 Standard Deviation: 43.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 4.8 8.9 5.1 -0.6 6.8 6.3 4.3 2.1 4.5 MAE: 37.1 39.0 36.8 40.4 37.9 37.3 38.7 38.6 38.0 RMSE: 41.2 43.2 45.5 43.9 42.0 41.7 42.1 41.8 41.3 RMAE: 61.5 72.6 52.2 71.7 66.9 61.0 68.5 66.5 63.7 CORR: 0.350 0.259 0.354 -0.434 0.323 0.347 0.311 0.332 0.342 Pval: 0.442 0.575 0.436 0.331 0.480 0.446 0.497 0.468 0.453 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 75.0 Standard Deviation: 33.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 6.5 8.2 2.9 3.3 4.9 3.2 1.5 4.4 MAE: 27.9 29.3 28.2 32.6 28.6 27.5 29.5 29.7 28.5 RMSE: 30.9 32.0 33.6 35.2 31.3 31.1 32.0 32.3 31.7 RMAE: 44.1 52.5 56.9 59.8 48.3 49.9 51.6 51.2 52.0 CORR: 0.397 0.359 0.272 0.166 0.380 0.402 0.329 0.307 0.351 Pval: 0.378 0.429 0.555 0.721 0.401 0.371 0.472 0.504 0.440 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 57.4 Standard Deviation: 28.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -9.1 -10.6 0.4 6.0 -9.8 -6.4 -4.6 -1.6 -3.3 MAE: 23.0 24.6 19.3 17.5 23.7 21.9 20.9 19.1 20.2 RMSE: 30.8 31.5 23.0 24.8 31.1 27.6 27.5 26.2 25.8 RMAE: 41.1 50.0 40.3 49.8 45.4 43.1 45.7 43.6 43.8 CORR: 0.269 0.196 0.605 0.569 0.236 0.396 0.387 0.455 0.470 Pval: 0.560 0.674 0.150 0.183 0.610 0.380 0.391 0.305 0.287 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 37.6 Standard Deviation: 23.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -7.4 -6.8 6.7 -2.2 -7.1 -2.5 -5.5 -4.8 -2.4 MAE: 18.1 20.7 20.1 20.2 18.9 17.5 18.2 17.9 17.4 RMSE: 22.0 25.0 25.2 26.6 23.3 22.7 23.9 23.6 23.4 RMAE: 42.8 51.3 40.1 38.1 45.2 37.9 39.3 36.3 35.5 CORR: 0.494 0.098 -0.198 -0.413 0.346 0.333 0.170 0.189 0.145 Pval: 0.259 0.835 0.670 0.357 0.447 0.465 0.716 0.685 0.757 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 24.1 Standard Deviation: 19.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -8.2 -13.3 0.2 -15.8 -10.8 -7.1 -12.5 -12.0 -9.3 MAE: 18.4 18.3 19.4 25.9 18.0 18.1 20.7 22.1 20.0 RMSE: 20.9 23.4 21.3 29.8 21.9 21.1 24.3 25.1 22.9 RMAE: 151.1 159.5 255.4 179.8 151.8 184.2 161.1 165.4 183.1 CORR: 0.067 0.138 -0.597 -0.557 0.162 -0.204 -0.460 -0.521 -0.596 Pval: 0.887 0.768 0.157 0.194 0.729 0.661 0.299 0.231 0.158 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