Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 0.7 Standard Deviation: 0.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 MAE: 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 RMSE: 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 RMAE: 69.1 74.6 64.6 75.9 71.9 69.4 73.2 72.5 71.0 CORR: -0.198 -0.262 -0.130 -0.087 -0.230 -0.191 -0.207 -0.166 -0.186 Pval: 0.671 0.570 0.781 0.853 0.620 0.681 0.656 0.722 0.689 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 0.7 Standard Deviation: 0.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 MAE: 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 RMSE: 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 RMAE: 59.1 57.1 65.9 92.3 58.1 60.7 69.5 75.7 68.6 CORR: 0.275 0.286 0.187 0.140 0.281 0.256 0.214 0.189 0.210 Pval: 0.550 0.534 0.688 0.764 0.542 0.579 0.645 0.685 0.651 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 0.4 Standard Deviation: 0.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.7 0.5 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 MAE: 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 RMSE: 1.3 1.2 1.9 2.8 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.7 RMAE: 58.2 57.9 61.1 49.1 58.1 59.1 54.6 53.0 56.3 CORR: 0.257 0.337 0.031 -0.180 0.298 0.196 0.060 -0.035 0.053 Pval: 0.578 0.459 0.948 0.699 0.517 0.674 0.899 0.940 0.911 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 1.7 Standard Deviation: 0.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 MAE: 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 RMSE: 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 RMAE: 68.9 67.8 55.9 79.5 68.3 64.2 64.9 63.5 62.7 CORR: 0.192 0.224 0.294 0.059 0.209 0.239 0.159 0.121 0.192 Pval: 0.680 0.629 0.522 0.900 0.653 0.605 0.733 0.797 0.680 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 3.4 Standard Deviation: 1.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.0 MAE: 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 RMSE: 2.6 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 RMAE: 71.2 63.7 79.8 86.7 66.5 70.9 73.2 78.3 73.8 CORR: -0.017 0.209 -0.098 0.236 0.097 0.028 0.156 0.132 0.093 Pval: 0.971 0.653 0.834 0.610 0.836 0.952 0.738 0.779 0.842 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 5.3 Standard Deviation: 2.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.0 -1.2 -1.0 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 MAE: 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 RMSE: 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 RMAE: 22.8 24.5 32.0 31.2 23.6 24.5 24.6 26.0 22.7 CORR: 0.423 0.463 0.425 0.363 0.445 0.445 0.427 0.403 0.437 Pval: 0.345 0.296 0.342 0.423 0.318 0.317 0.339 0.370 0.327 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 6.0 Standard Deviation: 2.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 MAE: 3.1 3.1 3.2 2.6 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 RMSE: 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 RMAE: 51.5 52.3 54.3 38.4 51.9 52.7 47.4 45.0 49.1 CORR: -0.419 -0.386 -0.442 -0.319 -0.403 -0.417 -0.403 -0.400 -0.416 Pval: 0.350 0.393 0.320 0.486 0.371 0.352 0.370 0.374 0.353 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 5.6 Standard Deviation: 2.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 MAE: 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 RMSE: 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 RMAE: 69.5 73.6 66.5 60.3 71.5 69.9 67.8 64.9 67.5 CORR: -0.373 -0.360 -0.439 -0.754 -0.367 -0.391 -0.480 -0.558 -0.472 Pval: 0.409 0.427 0.324 0.050 0.419 0.386 0.276 0.193 0.285 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 4.9 Standard Deviation: 1.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 MAE: 3.1 3.3 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 RMSE: 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 RMAE: 74.4 78.3 68.7 76.3 76.3 73.8 76.3 75.4 74.4 CORR: -0.057 -0.041 -0.093 -0.240 -0.048 -0.062 -0.107 -0.146 -0.104 Pval: 0.904 0.930 0.843 0.605 0.918 0.894 0.819 0.755 0.825 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 3.9 Standard Deviation: 1.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 -1.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -0.7 MAE: 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 RMSE: 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 RMAE: 34.8 30.7 51.0 46.9 32.3 35.7 34.0 35.7 32.9 CORR: 0.580 0.554 0.430 0.150 0.572 0.538 0.452 0.388 0.476 Pval: 0.172 0.197 0.336 0.748 0.180 0.213 0.308 0.389 0.280 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 2.7 Standard Deviation: 1.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.3 -0.4 0.6 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 MAE: 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 RMSE: 2.1 1.8 2.5 2.7 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.0 RMAE: 102.1 80.7 111.2 135.9 91.4 97.7 99.8 113.3 102.4 CORR: 0.292 0.326 0.310 0.439 0.306 0.308 0.414 0.426 0.395 Pval: 0.525 0.476 0.498 0.325 0.505 0.501 0.356 0.341 0.381 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 2.0 Standard Deviation: 1.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 MAE: 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 RMSE: 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 RMAE: 85.9 78.2 97.1 125.8 82.1 87.1 96.4 105.5 96.6 CORR: -0.066 -0.079 -0.077 0.052 -0.073 -0.075 -0.016 0.008 -0.031 Pval: 0.888 0.866 0.869 0.912 0.877 0.873 0.973 0.987 0.947 ------------------------------------------------