Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 2.4 Standard Deviation: 1.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.3 -1.5 -2.1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.5 MAE: 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 RMSE: 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 RMAE: 73.7 65.2 84.9 77.9 69.4 71.6 72.3 75.8 73.2 CORR: 0.344 0.264 0.093 0.167 0.312 0.269 0.252 0.246 0.231 Pval: 0.450 0.568 0.843 0.721 0.496 0.559 0.586 0.595 0.617 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 4.1 Standard Deviation: 1.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.5 -1.5 -1.9 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.5 -1.4 -1.6 MAE: 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 RMSE: 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.6 RMAE: 68.5 70.4 63.7 56.2 69.5 66.1 65.1 62.4 63.7 CORR: -0.120 -0.194 -0.094 0.383 -0.157 -0.140 0.037 0.154 -0.000 Pval: 0.798 0.677 0.841 0.396 0.736 0.764 0.938 0.741 1.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 5.7 Standard Deviation: 2.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.6 -0.0 -1.4 -1.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -0.8 MAE: 3.4 3.0 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 RMSE: 3.9 3.6 4.3 4.2 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 RMAE: 68.2 64.1 70.2 66.1 66.1 67.5 66.1 67.1 67.1 CORR: -0.448 -0.485 -0.385 -0.436 -0.468 -0.440 -0.467 -0.450 -0.445 Pval: 0.313 0.271 0.394 0.328 0.290 0.323 0.290 0.311 0.317 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 7.7 Standard Deviation: 2.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.1 MAE: 3.9 4.4 4.2 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.1 RMSE: 4.1 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 RMAE: 55.2 62.2 60.6 52.3 58.7 59.3 56.6 53.8 57.6 CORR: -0.445 -0.457 -0.394 -0.080 -0.452 -0.434 -0.308 -0.228 -0.332 Pval: 0.316 0.303 0.381 0.864 0.309 0.331 0.502 0.623 0.467 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 9.0 Standard Deviation: 2.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.5 -0.6 -1.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.8 MAE: 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.2 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 RMSE: 3.8 3.4 3.7 2.7 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.3 RMAE: 35.2 31.3 28.3 24.3 33.2 30.9 29.9 29.6 28.5 CORR: 0.159 0.256 0.323 0.519 0.206 0.249 0.320 0.348 0.327 Pval: 0.733 0.579 0.480 0.233 0.658 0.590 0.484 0.444 0.475 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 10.1 Standard Deviation: 4.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -2.4 -2.4 -3.4 -1.8 -2.4 -2.7 -2.2 -2.1 -2.5 MAE: 3.8 4.1 3.9 4.9 3.9 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.0 RMSE: 5.2 5.5 5.2 6.3 5.3 5.2 5.7 5.8 5.5 RMAE: 30.5 34.5 31.4 43.3 32.5 30.7 33.7 35.3 31.7 CORR: -0.005 -0.066 0.269 -0.461 -0.038 0.031 -0.204 -0.273 -0.134 Pval: 0.991 0.888 0.559 0.297 0.936 0.947 0.660 0.554 0.775 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 9.9 Standard Deviation: 4.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.7 -1.7 -0.7 -1.9 -1.7 -1.3 -1.7 -1.8 -1.5 MAE: 6.1 5.9 7.0 4.5 6.0 6.3 5.5 5.3 5.9 RMSE: 7.0 6.8 7.8 5.7 6.9 7.2 6.4 6.3 6.7 RMAE: 63.8 60.8 78.7 44.6 62.3 67.8 56.4 54.2 62.0 CORR: -0.825 -0.786 -0.846 -0.861 -0.807 -0.824 -0.844 -0.871 -0.846 Pval: 0.022 0.036 0.016 0.013 0.028 0.023 0.017 0.011 0.016 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 8.3 Standard Deviation: 3.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 MAE: 3.8 3.3 3.7 5.5 3.6 3.5 4.1 4.5 4.0 RMSE: 4.4 4.0 4.4 6.1 4.2 4.2 4.8 5.2 4.6 RMAE: 48.5 42.8 45.4 68.8 45.6 44.6 52.1 57.4 50.5 CORR: -0.121 -0.041 -0.280 -0.381 -0.083 -0.153 -0.226 -0.287 -0.243 Pval: 0.797 0.931 0.543 0.399 0.859 0.743 0.626 0.532 0.600 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 6.9 Standard Deviation: 2.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -3.1 -2.8 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 MAE: 3.5 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 RMSE: 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.8 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 RMAE: 46.2 50.2 42.2 42.5 48.2 43.9 43.5 42.7 41.5 CORR: -0.132 -0.279 0.043 0.288 -0.212 -0.133 -0.107 0.034 -0.068 Pval: 0.778 0.545 0.928 0.530 0.648 0.776 0.819 0.942 0.885 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 4.9 Standard Deviation: 2.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.6 -1.2 -0.4 -2.3 -0.9 -0.7 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 MAE: 2.5 2.6 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.2 2.1 2.5 RMSE: 2.8 3.0 3.7 3.4 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.0 RMAE: 70.5 68.3 93.2 65.8 68.4 76.7 59.3 54.9 67.8 CORR: -0.084 -0.086 -0.188 -0.184 -0.085 -0.130 -0.135 -0.170 -0.161 Pval: 0.858 0.855 0.687 0.693 0.856 0.780 0.773 0.716 0.730 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 3.6 Standard Deviation: 2.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.4 -0.7 0.4 0.5 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.0 MAE: 2.8 2.8 3.0 4.3 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.2 RMSE: 3.1 3.0 3.3 5.1 3.0 3.1 3.6 4.0 3.5 RMAE: 73.7 69.7 81.9 105.9 71.7 74.3 83.1 89.8 82.2 CORR: -0.299 -0.305 -0.172 -0.673 -0.303 -0.252 -0.524 -0.577 -0.440 Pval: 0.515 0.505 0.712 0.097 0.510 0.586 0.228 0.175 0.323 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 2.4 Standard Deviation: 1.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 MAE: 1.8 1.7 2.3 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.9 RMSE: 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 RMAE: 82.0 83.8 99.2 78.7 82.9 88.3 81.5 80.3 85.9 CORR: -0.088 0.095 -0.344 -0.295 0.012 -0.124 -0.087 -0.197 -0.167 Pval: 0.851 0.839 0.450 0.520 0.980 0.792 0.853 0.672 0.721 ------------------------------------------------