Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 2.4 Standard Deviation: 1.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.3 -0.6 0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 MAE: 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 RMSE: 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 RMAE: 74.6 67.9 89.0 46.0 71.3 77.2 62.8 60.3 69.4 CORR: -0.272 0.053 -0.019 -0.010 -0.106 -0.066 -0.101 -0.245 -0.064 Pval: 0.556 0.910 0.968 0.982 0.822 0.889 0.830 0.597 0.892 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 4.1 Standard Deviation: 1.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.3 -1.1 0.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 MAE: 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 RMSE: 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 RMAE: 36.8 40.2 42.9 49.7 38.5 38.1 37.3 38.0 37.3 CORR: 0.019 -0.291 0.136 -0.029 -0.134 0.036 -0.101 -0.018 0.013 Pval: 0.968 0.527 0.772 0.951 0.775 0.939 0.830 0.969 0.977 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 5.7 Standard Deviation: 2.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.1 -0.3 1.0 0.0 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.0 0.2 MAE: 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.0 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.5 RMSE: 2.5 2.5 3.3 3.7 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.7 RMAE: 43.4 43.2 53.8 63.3 43.3 46.8 50.0 53.3 50.9 CORR: 0.060 -0.037 0.081 -0.529 0.015 0.055 -0.395 -0.459 -0.187 Pval: 0.899 0.938 0.864 0.223 0.974 0.907 0.380 0.300 0.687 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 7.7 Standard Deviation: 2.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 MAE: 2.0 2.1 2.4 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 RMSE: 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 RMAE: 24.8 25.6 31.6 22.2 24.4 26.3 23.7 23.2 24.8 CORR: 0.162 0.079 0.212 0.521 0.123 0.183 0.333 0.410 0.300 Pval: 0.729 0.866 0.648 0.230 0.793 0.695 0.465 0.361 0.513 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 9.0 Standard Deviation: 2.9 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.9 -0.6 -2.5 -1.6 -0.8 -1.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.4 MAE: 2.6 2.5 3.3 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.7 RMSE: 3.0 2.9 4.6 3.3 2.9 3.4 3.0 3.1 3.3 RMAE: 27.6 28.6 30.6 27.6 28.1 28.9 27.1 26.4 28.0 CORR: 0.248 0.253 -0.005 0.089 0.252 0.122 0.239 0.221 0.122 Pval: 0.591 0.585 0.992 0.849 0.585 0.794 0.606 0.633 0.794 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 10.1 Standard Deviation: 4.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.3 -1.2 -3.0 -2.1 -1.2 -1.8 -1.5 -1.7 -1.9 MAE: 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.4 RMSE: 4.1 4.0 5.2 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 RMAE: 30.9 31.2 29.6 25.5 31.1 30.5 28.7 27.5 28.9 CORR: 0.247 0.268 0.029 0.357 0.263 0.186 0.313 0.328 0.247 Pval: 0.594 0.562 0.950 0.432 0.569 0.690 0.494 0.473 0.593 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 9.9 Standard Deviation: 4.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.4 -1.8 1.0 -0.9 -1.6 -0.8 -1.4 -1.2 -0.8 MAE: 3.5 3.6 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.6 RMSE: 4.3 4.5 4.0 4.7 4.4 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.1 RMAE: 33.5 32.9 41.2 43.9 33.2 35.2 36.8 38.7 37.4 CORR: 0.226 0.216 0.381 0.034 0.243 0.348 0.154 0.108 0.318 Pval: 0.625 0.642 0.399 0.943 0.600 0.444 0.741 0.819 0.487 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 8.3 Standard Deviation: 3.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.5 -1.7 -0.4 -1.8 -1.6 -1.2 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 MAE: 2.4 2.5 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 RMSE: 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 RMAE: 26.3 27.5 39.6 33.0 26.9 29.8 28.9 29.6 30.6 CORR: 0.460 0.537 -0.129 -0.329 0.509 0.208 0.458 0.373 0.182 Pval: 0.299 0.214 0.782 0.471 0.244 0.654 0.302 0.410 0.697 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 6.9 Standard Deviation: 2.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.7 -1.8 -1.0 -1.4 -1.8 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 MAE: 2.0 2.1 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 RMSE: 2.6 2.6 3.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 RMAE: 24.8 27.0 44.7 27.6 25.9 28.3 25.4 25.0 26.7 CORR: 0.584 0.550 -0.426 0.497 0.567 0.245 0.561 0.549 0.413 Pval: 0.168 0.201 0.341 0.257 0.184 0.597 0.190 0.202 0.358 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 4.9 Standard Deviation: 2.0 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.4 -1.4 -0.5 -2.0 -1.4 -1.1 -1.6 -1.7 -1.3 MAE: 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.4 1.6 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.6 RMSE: 2.2 2.2 1.8 2.9 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.1 RMAE: 23.6 28.6 42.2 57.9 26.1 26.9 35.9 40.3 27.2 CORR: 0.581 0.550 0.615 0.060 0.569 0.611 0.514 0.479 0.578 Pval: 0.171 0.201 0.141 0.899 0.183 0.145 0.238 0.277 0.174 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 3.6 Standard Deviation: 2.1 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.3 -1.3 -0.2 0.2 -1.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.6 MAE: 1.9 2.1 1.3 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 RMSE: 2.2 2.4 1.7 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 RMAE: 45.3 54.5 46.6 80.1 49.9 46.6 54.8 54.9 51.1 CORR: 0.600 0.287 0.581 0.551 0.441 0.543 0.552 0.582 0.605 Pval: 0.155 0.533 0.171 0.200 0.322 0.207 0.199 0.170 0.150 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 2.4 Standard Deviation: 1.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -1.1 -1.3 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 MAE: 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.5 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.9 RMSE: 2.0 2.2 1.7 2.7 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.1 RMAE: 55.7 71.1 66.1 113.9 63.4 64.3 80.2 84.8 76.7 CORR: -0.383 -0.423 -0.263 -0.604 -0.566 -0.520 -0.698 -0.591 -0.711 Pval: 0.397 0.344 0.569 0.151 0.185 0.232 0.081 0.162 0.073 ------------------------------------------------