Verification results for the TC forecast using dependent datasets Input file: VES Mon: 01 Mean TC-count: 26.8 Standard Deviation: 19.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.1 -0.0 MAE: 9.0 8.4 11.4 5.3 8.7 9.1 7.3 6.7 8.0 RMSE: 11.6 12.5 13.6 7.0 11.9 11.9 9.6 8.6 10.2 RMAE: 87.5 86.1 99.7 42.1 86.7 89.4 69.9 61.9 76.2 CORR: 0.805 0.768 0.720 0.935 0.795 0.796 0.876 0.902 0.860 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 02 Mean TC-count: 49.2 Standard Deviation: 29.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -1.5 3.5 -0.3 -0.7 0.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 MAE: 14.3 13.7 23.1 9.3 14.0 15.4 11.6 10.8 12.7 RMSE: 18.9 20.2 26.7 11.6 19.2 20.0 15.0 13.4 16.5 RMAE: 37.9 31.3 58.8 29.9 34.6 38.9 31.7 32.1 34.2 CORR: 0.767 0.732 0.586 0.919 0.758 0.735 0.863 0.896 0.829 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 03 Mean TC-count: 75.2 Standard Deviation: 30.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -0.1 -3.5 -2.4 -0.0 -1.2 -0.8 -1.2 -1.5 MAE: 14.4 13.5 22.5 10.5 13.9 15.6 12.1 11.9 13.7 RMSE: 18.7 19.5 24.4 13.1 18.9 19.4 15.9 14.6 17.0 RMAE: 23.2 22.0 37.7 17.3 22.6 24.8 19.5 19.2 21.6 CORR: 0.791 0.770 0.723 0.907 0.786 0.777 0.857 0.880 0.833 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 04 Mean TC-count: 104.8 Standard Deviation: 33.7 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -0.3 0.1 1.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 MAE: 13.9 12.6 18.3 8.9 13.2 14.4 11.2 10.6 12.4 RMSE: 17.3 18.1 20.7 12.4 17.5 17.5 15.1 13.9 15.5 RMAE: 15.9 14.3 20.9 10.1 15.1 16.5 12.9 12.3 14.4 CORR: 0.857 0.848 0.789 0.931 0.855 0.854 0.894 0.912 0.888 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 05 Mean TC-count: 130.5 Standard Deviation: 43.2 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 1.2 1.7 1.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 MAE: 15.8 14.8 19.5 10.9 15.3 16.3 12.8 11.9 14.0 RMSE: 20.0 20.6 23.1 14.1 20.2 20.2 16.6 15.3 17.4 RMAE: 13.6 12.4 17.7 8.9 13.0 14.2 10.6 9.7 11.9 CORR: 0.886 0.879 0.857 0.946 0.884 0.884 0.924 0.937 0.916 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 06 Mean TC-count: 143.0 Standard Deviation: 41.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 2.7 2.1 -0.9 1.4 1.6 0.6 -0.5 1.0 MAE: 12.7 11.9 15.3 7.5 12.3 12.9 9.5 8.4 10.5 RMSE: 15.7 16.7 18.6 9.2 16.0 16.2 12.2 10.7 13.3 RMAE: 9.6 9.3 11.4 6.1 9.5 9.8 7.5 6.6 8.1 CORR: 0.926 0.918 0.901 0.976 0.924 0.924 0.957 0.967 0.950 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 07 Mean TC-count: 136.1 Standard Deviation: 41.8 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 0.3 5.5 -1.7 0.1 1.9 -0.5 -0.8 1.0 MAE: 15.6 14.6 19.2 10.0 15.1 15.9 12.5 11.6 13.5 RMSE: 19.5 21.0 22.4 13.6 19.9 19.8 16.4 14.8 17.0 RMAE: 11.7 11.0 15.9 8.3 11.4 12.1 9.4 8.8 10.2 CORR: 0.885 0.865 0.855 0.946 0.880 0.883 0.921 0.936 0.915 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 08 Mean TC-count: 113.7 Standard Deviation: 39.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: -0.0 -0.5 0.7 0.8 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 MAE: 15.8 15.1 19.5 9.3 15.4 16.3 12.6 11.6 13.8 RMSE: 20.8 21.3 23.1 11.6 20.9 21.0 16.4 14.5 17.6 RMAE: 15.4 14.4 19.7 9.6 14.9 15.8 12.4 11.6 13.6 CORR: 0.851 0.844 0.814 0.956 0.849 0.848 0.911 0.932 0.898 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 09 Mean TC-count: 87.7 Standard Deviation: 35.6 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 0.8 3.6 -0.7 0.4 1.5 0.0 -0.4 0.9 MAE: 14.6 13.2 21.2 8.1 13.7 15.5 11.1 10.2 13.0 RMSE: 18.8 19.7 24.2 11.1 19.0 19.3 15.2 13.5 16.3 RMAE: 21.2 20.4 28.3 11.3 20.6 22.1 15.8 13.9 18.2 CORR: 0.850 0.834 0.780 0.951 0.846 0.842 0.906 0.926 0.890 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 10 Mean TC-count: 58.2 Standard Deviation: 34.4 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.0 1.1 -2.7 0.0 0.5 -0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.4 MAE: 12.5 11.5 23.0 10.1 11.9 13.9 10.1 9.6 12.0 RMSE: 17.8 18.6 27.8 13.7 18.0 18.7 15.4 14.4 16.5 RMAE: 23.4 19.0 47.5 18.5 21.2 26.1 17.1 16.4 21.8 CORR: 0.856 0.842 0.731 0.917 0.853 0.841 0.895 0.909 0.878 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 11 Mean TC-count: 31.9 Standard Deviation: 26.5 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.3 -2.3 -4.5 -0.6 -1.0 -2.2 -0.9 -0.2 -1.8 MAE: 13.5 12.7 17.6 7.0 13.0 13.7 10.4 9.4 11.5 RMSE: 16.9 18.0 20.4 10.8 17.2 17.2 14.0 12.6 14.8 RMAE: 111.9 82.3 128.8 33.7 96.9 103.4 70.7 65.6 81.0 CORR: 0.772 0.741 0.669 0.914 0.763 0.767 0.854 0.885 0.838 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------ Input file: VES Mon: 12 Mean TC-count: 18.3 Standard Deviation: 18.3 ID/Model MLR LAD LMV ANN E12 E123 E124 E14 E1234 ME: 0.7 0.9 2.4 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.1 MAE: 9.3 8.9 11.0 4.4 9.1 9.7 7.0 6.4 7.9 RMSE: 11.6 12.2 12.8 5.9 11.7 11.7 8.9 7.6 9.6 RMAE: 100.4 59.8 142.2 66.8 80.1 100.7 71.8 79.6 88.8 CORR: 0.783 0.750 0.728 0.947 0.772 0.775 0.885 0.921 0.866 Pval: 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ------------------------------------------------