=== national model: lgbm_clf / F3 tag='_lgbmF3' stratify: none phases: prep fit predict finalize === --- prep (120 shards) --- [prep 044] 14 initialisations -> 56943 rows [prep 058] 14 initialisations -> 56802 rows [prep 052] 14 initialisations -> 58508 rows [prep 042] 14 initialisations -> 57082 rows [prep 054] 14 initialisations -> 57291 rows [prep 043] 14 initialisations -> 56719 rows [prep 051] 14 initialisations -> 58219 rows [prep 035] 14 initialisations -> 55841 rows [prep 056] 14 initialisations -> 56627 rows [prep 031] 14 initialisations -> 56178 rows [prep 020] 14 initialisations -> 54195 rows [prep 034] 14 initialisations -> 56054 rows [prep 024] 14 initialisations -> 55353 rows [prep 037] 14 initialisations -> 54957 rows [prep 038] 14 initialisations -> 55781 rows [prep 048] 14 initialisations -> 56955 rows [prep 046] 14 initialisations -> 56309 rows [prep 036] 14 initialisations -> 55922 rows [prep 021] 14 initialisations -> 54637 rows [prep 026] 14 initialisations -> 55230 rows [prep 061] 14 initialisations -> 57015 rows [prep 055] 14 initialisations -> 56970 rows [prep 033] 14 initialisations -> 55919 rows [prep 064] 14 initialisations -> 56258 rows [prep 079] 14 initialisations -> 54264 rows [prep 060] 14 initialisations -> 57722 rows [prep 077] 14 initialisations -> 55040 rows [prep 029] 14 initialisations -> 55126 rows [prep 047] 14 initialisations -> 56701 rows [prep 075] 14 initialisations -> 55333 rows [prep 041] 14 initialisations -> 57469 rows [prep 066] 14 initialisations -> 56469 rows [prep 027] 14 initialisations -> 55446 rows [prep 039] 14 initialisations -> 56274 rows [prep 076] 14 initialisations -> 55341 rows [prep 057] 14 initialisations -> 56663 rows [prep 030] 14 initialisations -> 55918 rows [prep 022] 14 initialisations -> 54432 rows [prep 065] 14 initialisations -> 56325 rows [prep 053] 14 initialisations -> 57339 rows [prep 028] 14 initialisations -> 55151 rows [prep 032] 14 initialisations -> 56091 rows [prep 023] 14 initialisations -> 55212 rows [prep 025] 14 initialisations -> 55391 rows [prep 050] 14 initialisations -> 57920 rows [prep 045] 14 initialisations -> 56676 rows [prep 049] 14 initialisations -> 57135 rows [prep 059] 14 initialisations -> 58289 rows [prep 040] 14 initialisations -> 57612 rows [prep 089] 14 initialisations -> 54316 rows [prep 090] 14 initialisations -> 54371 rows [prep 088] 14 initialisations -> 54447 rows [prep 095] 14 initialisations -> 54860 rows [prep 083] 14 initialisations -> 53834 rows [prep 093] 14 initialisations -> 54487 rows [prep 097] 14 initialisations -> 54945 rows [prep 086] 14 initialisations -> 54540 rows [prep 085] 14 initialisations -> 54327 rows [prep 016] 14 initialisations -> 55271 rows [prep 094] 14 initialisations -> 54651 rows [prep 010] 14 initialisations -> 55637 rows [prep 017] 14 initialisations -> 55191 rows [prep 008] 14 initialisations -> 56156 rows [prep 009] 14 initialisations -> 56017 rows [prep 019] 14 initialisations -> 54820 rows [prep 011] 14 initialisations -> 55459 rows [prep 012] 14 initialisations -> 55269 rows [prep 005] 14 initialisations -> 56357 rows [prep 002] 14 initialisations -> 57310 rows [prep 007] 14 initialisations -> 56186 rows [prep 014] 14 initialisations -> 55265 rows [prep 015] 14 initialisations -> 54869 rows [prep 115] 13 initialisations -> 53186 rows [prep 003] 14 initialisations -> 56862 rows [prep 018] 14 initialisations -> 54977 rows [prep 001] 14 initialisations -> 57622 rows [prep 004] 14 initialisations -> 55817 rows [prep 105] 13 initialisations -> 51171 rows [prep 104] 13 initialisations -> 51028 rows [prep 114] 13 initialisations -> 53251 rows [prep 117] 13 initialisations -> 53539 rows [prep 119] 13 initialisations -> 53569 rows [prep 116] 13 initialisations -> 53682 rows [prep 102] 14 initialisations -> 53984 rows [prep 000] 14 initialisations -> 57392 rows [prep 100] 14 initialisations -> 54382 rows [prep 006] 14 initialisations -> 56265 rows [prep 098] 14 initialisations -> 54901 rows [prep 091] 14 initialisations -> 54497 rows [prep 092] 14 initialisations -> 54563 rows [prep 096] 14 initialisations -> 54864 rows [prep 099] 14 initialisations -> 54965 rows [prep 081] 14 initialisations -> 54232 rows [prep 087] 14 initialisations -> 53835 rows [prep 082] 14 initialisations -> 54040 rows [prep 084] 14 initialisations -> 53792 rows [prep 080] 14 initialisations -> 54554 rows [prep 113] 13 initialisations -> 52978 rows [prep 068] 14 initialisations -> 55783 rows [prep 013] 14 initialisations -> 55226 rows [prep 067] 14 initialisations -> 55601 rows [prep 070] 14 initialisations -> 56150 rows [prep 069] 14 initialisations -> 55734 rows [prep 078] 14 initialisations -> 54660 rows [prep 062] 14 initialisations -> 57217 rows [prep 073] 14 initialisations -> 55457 rows [prep 071] 14 initialisations -> 55704 rows [prep 063] 14 initialisations -> 56717 rows [prep 074] 14 initialisations -> 55408 rows [prep 072] 14 initialisations -> 55092 rows [prep 118] 13 initialisations -> 53040 rows [prep 108] 13 initialisations -> 51099 rows [prep 110] 13 initialisations -> 52247 rows [prep 106] 13 initialisations -> 51386 rows [prep 103] 14 initialisations -> 54516 rows [prep 112] 13 initialisations -> 52603 rows [prep 107] 13 initialisations -> 51288 rows [prep 109] 13 initialisations -> 51864 rows [prep 111] 13 initialisations -> 52204 rows [prep 101] 14 initialisations -> 54441 rows --- fit (folds: 0 1 2 3 full, one node each, all at once) --- [fit 2] (6633074, 70) rows, 1 stratum(s) by 'none' [fit 0] (6633074, 70) rows, 1 stratum(s) by 'none' [fit 1] (6633074, 70) rows, 1 stratum(s) by 'none' [fit full] (6633074, 70) rows, 1 stratum(s) by 'none' [fit 3] (6633074, 70) rows, 1 stratum(s) by 'none' [fit fold 2] held out [2010, 2014, 2018, 2020], 1711949 rows, 81s [fit fold 1] held out [2003, 2008, 2009, 2012], 1603909 rows, 82s [fit fold 0] held out [2005, 2007, 2015, 2017], 1659781 rows, 84s [fit fold 3] held out [2004, 2013, 2019, 2022], 1657435 rows, 88s [fit full] 1 model(s), 112s --- predict (120 shards) --- [pred 058] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 026] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 057] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 022] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 035] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 023] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 028] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 021] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 053] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 040] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 051] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 034] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 050] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 049] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 041] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 093] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 060] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 064] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 063] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 071] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 079] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 019] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 013] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 012] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 016] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 018] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 014] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 083] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 081] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 000] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 054] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 003] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 073] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 077] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 069] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 089] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 078] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 080] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 038] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 095] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 066] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 116] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 114] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 091] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 096] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 111] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 110] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 119] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 070] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 031] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 092] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 086] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 006] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 039] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 015] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 061] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 099] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 052] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 098] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 027] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 059] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 009] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 048] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 055] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 056] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 068] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 104] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 062] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 117] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 113] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 008] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 108] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 046] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 004] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 072] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 115] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 087] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 084] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 074] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 067] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 090] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 094] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 024] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 065] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 075] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 076] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 045] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 042] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 082] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 043] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 047] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 044] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 085] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 010] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 029] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 088] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 097] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 001] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 030] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 007] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 033] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 011] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 017] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 002] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 005] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 118] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 036] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 020] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 025] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 032] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 037] 4 initialisations -> 99544 rows [pred 101] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 100] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 107] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 102] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 109] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 112] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 105] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 106] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows [pred 103] 3 initialisations -> 74658 rows --- finalize --- [weights] out-of-fold base rate 0.0754 raw -> 0.0121 after undoing the thinning [thr] rule A, max weighted CSI : {'W1': 0.6575, 'W2': 0.5507, 'W3': 0.4861, 'W4': 0.4514, 'W5': 0.4511, 'W6': 0.453} [thr] rule B, FBI ~ 1 : {'W1': 0.7084, 'W2': 0.6683, 'W3': 0.6508, 'W4': 0.6418, 'W5': 0.6362, 'W6': 0.6271} [thr] capable frame, FBI ~ 1 : {'W1': 0.7847, 'W2': 0.7312, 'W3': 0.7075, 'W4': 0.6981, 'W5': 0.693, 'W6': 0.6831} daily_all base_rate POD POFD FAR FBI CSI ETS AUC W1 0.014 0.533 0.008 0.513 1.093 0.342 0.335 0.980 W2 0.014 0.356 0.010 0.672 1.086 0.206 0.199 0.955 W3 0.014 0.313 0.011 0.726 1.143 0.171 0.164 0.942 W4 0.014 0.301 0.011 0.721 1.080 0.169 0.162 0.943 W5 0.014 0.300 0.011 0.719 1.066 0.170 0.163 0.941 W6 0.013 0.294 0.011 0.736 1.115 0.161 0.155 0.937 ALL 0.014 0.366 0.010 0.667 1.097 0.211 0.204 0.954 daily_capable base_rate POD POFD FAR FBI CSI ETS AUC W1 0.106 0.759 0.083 0.478 1.454 0.447 0.392 0.931 W2 0.106 0.605 0.128 0.639 1.677 0.292 0.225 0.843 W3 0.106 0.537 0.161 0.716 1.891 0.228 0.156 0.782 W4 0.107 0.538 0.154 0.705 1.824 0.235 0.164 0.790 W5 0.106 0.539 0.152 0.704 1.824 0.236 0.166 0.786 W6 0.105 0.511 0.164 0.732 1.904 0.213 0.141 0.753 ALL 0.106 0.597 0.135 0.656 1.735 0.279 0.211 0.834 weekly_all base_rate POD POFD FAR FBI CSI ETS AUC W1 0.050 0.556 0.014 0.327 0.827 0.438 0.419 0.967 W2 0.039 0.413 0.013 0.444 0.743 0.310 0.295 0.952 W3 0.039 0.352 0.015 0.520 0.733 0.255 0.239 0.942 W4 0.039 0.360 0.016 0.527 0.760 0.257 0.241 0.940 W5 0.039 0.384 0.015 0.498 0.764 0.278 0.262 0.940 W6 0.038 0.350 0.016 0.541 0.762 0.248 0.232 0.935 ALL 0.041 0.410 0.015 0.466 0.768 0.302 0.285 0.947 daily_capable_own_fbi1 base_rate POD POFD FAR FBI CSI ETS AUC W1 0.106 0.662 0.053 0.403 1.109 0.458 0.410 0.931 W2 0.106 0.471 0.091 0.618 1.235 0.267 0.208 0.843 W3 0.106 0.424 0.111 0.687 1.356 0.219 0.157 0.782 W4 0.107 0.435 0.100 0.658 1.273 0.237 0.176 0.790 W5 0.106 0.402 0.099 0.676 1.241 0.218 0.158 0.786 W6 0.105 0.383 0.107 0.704 1.296 0.200 0.139 0.753 ALL 0.106 0.480 0.090 0.612 1.239 0.273 0.214 0.834 daily_capable_own_csi base_rate POD POFD FAR FBI CSI ETS AUC W1 0.106 0.728 0.071 0.452 1.329 0.454 0.402 0.931 W2 0.106 0.723 0.191 0.689 2.323 0.278 0.202 0.843 W3 0.106 0.735 0.304 0.777 3.298 0.206 0.120 0.782 W4 0.107 0.791 0.352 0.789 3.740 0.200 0.110 0.790 W5 0.106 0.793 0.346 0.787 3.720 0.202 0.113 0.786 W6 0.105 0.733 0.358 0.806 3.778 0.181 0.092 0.753 ALL 0.106 0.748 0.253 0.740 2.881 0.239 0.157 0.834