{
  "created": "2026-09-13T20:24:15",
  "family": "hgb",
  "trained_years": [
    2003,
    2004,
    2005,
    2006,
    2007,
    2008,
    2009,
    2010,
    2011,
    2012,
    2013,
    2014,
    2015,
    2016,
    2017,
    2018,
    2019,
    2020,
    2021,
    2022
  ],
  "baseline_years": [
    2002,
    2023
  ],
  "index": {
    "rule": "min",
    "abs_degC": 35.0,
    "percentile": 90,
    "window_days": 15
  },
  "blocks": {
    "W1": [
      0,
      10
    ],
    "W2": [
      11,
      17
    ],
    "W3": [
      18,
      24
    ],
    "W4": [
      25,
      31
    ],
    "W5": [
      32,
      38
    ],
    "W6": [
      39,
      45
    ]
  },
  "base_rate": {
    "W1": 0.4301128302444133,
    "W2": 0.3275540910998598,
    "W3": 0.32803718288729944,
    "W4": 0.3278782358666631,
    "W5": 0.3277942975523945,
    "W6": 0.3278666273763919
  },
  "global_thr": {
    "W1": 0.42000000000000004,
    "W2": 0.34,
    "W3": 0.32,
    "W4": 0.32,
    "W5": 0.34,
    "W6": 0.32
  },
  "region_thr": {
    "W1": {
      "1": 0.42000000000000004,
      "2": 0.46,
      "3": 0.46,
      "4": 0.46,
      "5": 0.4,
      "6": 0.4,
      "7": 0.44
    },
    "W2": {
      "1": 0.32,
      "2": 0.36000000000000004,
      "3": 0.36000000000000004,
      "4": 0.34,
      "5": 0.30000000000000004,
      "6": 0.30000000000000004,
      "7": 0.34
    },
    "W3": {
      "1": 0.30000000000000004,
      "2": 0.34,
      "3": 0.36000000000000004,
      "4": 0.34,
      "5": 0.30000000000000004,
      "6": 0.32,
      "7": 0.34
    },
    "W4": {
      "1": 0.32,
      "2": 0.34,
      "3": 0.34,
      "4": 0.36000000000000004,
      "5": 0.28,
      "6": 0.30000000000000004,
      "7": 0.34
    },
    "W5": {
      "1": 0.32,
      "2": 0.34,
      "3": 0.34,
      "4": 0.34,
      "5": 0.30000000000000004,
      "6": 0.30000000000000004,
      "7": 0.34
    },
    "W6": {
      "1": 0.34,
      "2": 0.36000000000000004,
      "3": 0.34,
      "4": 0.34,
      "5": 0.26,
      "6": 0.30000000000000004,
      "7": 0.34
    }
  },
  "note": "Deployment refit on ALL years; honest skill = LOYO CV (stage 06/08). Control-only single-member MOS; recalibration fit in-sample."
}