QG_1 — all results tables

Every CSV in results/tables/ rendered with a plain-language note · 23 files · generated 2026-09-15. Numbers formatted to 4 significant figures; wide/long tables scroll horizontally.

block	bss_vs_clim	ci_lo	ci_hi	significant
W1	0.356	0.332	0.383	True
W2	0.118	0.092	0.144	True
W3	0.037	0.009	0.063	True
W4	0.014	-0.012	0.039	False
W5	0.004	-0.021	0.027	False
W6	-0.006	-0.028	0.018	False

Headline CV skill by lead block

results/tables/cv_scores_by_block.csv · 36 rows × 9 cols

The load-bearing v1 result. Pooled leave-one-year-out (LOYO) scores over 2003–2022 for each lead block × calibration family. Rows to trust: hgb_recal (the production/headline family). bss_vs_clim = Brier skill vs climatology, bss_vs_raw = vs the uncalibrated forecast, auc = discrimination. Headline: skilful through W3, ~0 by W4.

block	family	n	base_rate	brier	bss_vs_clim	bss_vs_raw	auc	sharpness
W1	raw	1117165	0.431	0.3273	-0.333	0	0.665	0.245
W1	climat	1117165	0.431	0.2456	0	0.25	0.401	0.002
W1	logistic	1117165	0.431	0.2059	0.162	0.371	0.728	0.196
W1	logistic_recal	1117165	0.431	0.2056	0.163	0.372	0.728	0.197
W1	hgb	1117165	0.431	0.159	0.353	0.514	0.846	0.269
W1	hgb_recal	1117165	0.431	0.1582	0.356	0.517	0.845	0.305
W2	raw	1119870	0.331	0.2831	-0.278	0	0.596	0.259
W2	climat	1119870	0.331	0.2216	0	0.217	0.41	0.001
W2	logistic	1119870	0.331	0.2071	0.065	0.269	0.651	0.116
W2	logistic_recal	1119870	0.331	0.2071	0.065	0.269	0.651	0.117
W2	hgb	1119870	0.331	0.1944	0.123	0.314	0.71	0.163
W2	hgb_recal	1119870	0.331	0.1955	0.118	0.31	0.71	0.198
W3	raw	1119870	0.331	0.3	-0.353	0	0.561	0.257
W3	climat	1119870	0.331	0.2218	0	0.261	0.411	0.002
W3	logistic	1119870	0.331	0.2158	0.027	0.28	0.596	0.074
W3	logistic_recal	1119870	0.331	0.2156	0.028	0.281	0.595	0.078
W3	hgb	1119870	0.331	0.2108	0.05	0.297	0.629	0.121
W3	hgb_recal	1119870	0.331	0.2136	0.037	0.288	0.63	0.16
W4	raw	1119870	0.331	0.3041	-0.371	0	0.55	0.253
W4	climat	1119870	0.331	0.2217	0	0.271	0.417	0.002
W4	logistic	1119870	0.331	0.2178	0.018	0.284	0.579	0.061
W4	logistic_recal	1119870	0.331	0.2176	0.018	0.284	0.577	0.065
W4	hgb	1119870	0.331	0.2147	0.032	0.294	0.603	0.109
W4	hgb_recal	1119870	0.331	0.2186	0.014	0.281	0.603	0.151
W5	raw	1119870	0.331	0.3067	-0.384	0	0.545	0.258
W5	climat	1119870	0.331	0.2217	0	0.277	0.419	0.002
W5	logistic	1119870	0.331	0.2185	0.014	0.287	0.57	0.056
W5	logistic_recal	1119870	0.331	0.2183	0.015	0.288	0.566	0.06
W5	hgb	1119870	0.331	0.2165	0.023	0.294	0.59	0.103
W5	hgb_recal	1119870	0.331	0.2207	0.004	0.28	0.591	0.145
W6	raw	1119870	0.331	0.3087	-0.393	0	0.54	0.254
W6	climat	1119870	0.331	0.2216	0	0.282	0.429	0.002
W6	logistic	1119870	0.331	0.2193	0.011	0.29	0.56	0.051
W6	logistic_recal	1119870	0.331	0.2192	0.011	0.29	0.557	0.053
W6	hgb	1119870	0.331	0.2178	0.017	0.294	0.578	0.1
W6	hgb_recal	1119870	0.331	0.2229	-0.006	0.278	0.579	0.145

CV skill by climate region × block

results/tables/cv_scores_by_region_block.csv · 42 rows × 14 cols

Same LOYO scores split by the 7 climate regions (1=Tay Bac … 7=Nam Bo) × 6 blocks, hgb_recal. Shows the north-vs-south gradient: south (R6/R7) keeps positive BSS to W4–W6; north (R1–R3) negative by W3. dec_thr = the per-region×block Peirce-optimal decision threshold.

block	region	n	base_rate	dec_thr	bss_vs_clim	auc	POD	FAR	CSI	Peirce	HSS	SEDI	freq_bias
W1	1	105315	0.435	0.42	0.371	0.854	0.787	0.292	0.594	0.537	0.531	0.696	1.11
W1	2	216825	0.455	0.48	0.365	0.85	0.764	0.264	0.6	0.536	0.534	0.693	1.04
W1	3	76405	0.449	0.46	0.398	0.866	0.797	0.262	0.621	0.566	0.562	0.724	1.08
W1	4	181720	0.447	0.48	0.413	0.871	0.778	0.248	0.619	0.57	0.568	0.728	1.03
W1	5	130095	0.396	0.4	0.246	0.786	0.697	0.378	0.49	0.42	0.411	0.566	1.12
W1	6	198240	0.412	0.4	0.366	0.85	0.768	0.304	0.575	0.534	0.526	0.692	1.1
W1	7	208565	0.425	0.44	0.33	0.833	0.748	0.305	0.563	0.506	0.501	0.662	1.08
W2	1	105570	0.329	0.32	0.077	0.681	0.648	0.549	0.362	0.261	0.235	0.367	1.44
W2	2	217350	0.341	0.36	0.061	0.661	0.579	0.541	0.344	0.226	0.213	0.321	1.26
W2	3	76590	0.338	0.34	0.064	0.67	0.641	0.551	0.359	0.241	0.218	0.34	1.43
W2	4	182160	0.34	0.34	0.097	0.696	0.636	0.521	0.376	0.279	0.259	0.391	1.33
W2	5	130410	0.304	0.3	0.099	0.692	0.636	0.566	0.348	0.275	0.243	0.385	1.47
W2	6	198720	0.324	0.32	0.181	0.757	0.687	0.485	0.417	0.376	0.346	0.514	1.33
W2	7	209070	0.334	0.34	0.189	0.759	0.683	0.472	0.424	0.377	0.351	0.515	1.29
W3	1	105570	0.33	0.32	-0.007	0.585	0.577	0.61	0.304	0.134	0.119	0.192	1.48
W3	2	217350	0.34	0.34	-0.023	0.563	0.554	0.614	0.294	0.099	0.089	0.142	1.44
W3	3	76590	0.338	0.36	-0.028	0.56	0.483	0.615	0.273	0.089	0.084	0.129	1.25
W3	4	182160	0.341	0.34	0.007	0.593	0.544	0.592	0.304	0.135	0.125	0.193	1.33
W3	5	130410	0.305	0.3	0.034	0.615	0.564	0.621	0.293	0.16	0.14	0.228	1.49
W3	6	198720	0.324	0.32	0.098	0.69	0.624	0.541	0.359	0.271	0.248	0.38	1.36
W3	7	209070	0.335	0.34	0.118	0.709	0.663	0.524	0.383	0.295	0.269	0.412	1.39
W4	1	105570	0.33	0.32	-0.015	0.561	0.583	0.628	0.294	0.099	0.087	0.142	1.57
W4	2	217350	0.34	0.34	-0.051	0.525	0.531	0.64	0.273	0.044	0.04	0.064	1.48
W4	3	76590	0.338	0.34	-0.045	0.535	0.553	0.638	0.28	0.057	0.05	0.082	1.53
W4	4	182160	0.341	0.34	-0.012	0.57	0.527	0.61	0.289	0.101	0.093	0.145	1.35
W4	5	130410	0.304	0.3	0.025	0.602	0.513	0.618	0.28	0.15	0.136	0.215	1.34
W4	6	198720	0.324	0.32	0.07	0.661	0.568	0.553	0.334	0.231	0.216	0.328	1.27
W4	7	209070	0.335	0.34	0.082	0.678	0.615	0.544	0.355	0.246	0.227	0.347	1.35
W5	1	105570	0.33	0.32	-0.025	0.547	0.582	0.642	0.285	0.068	0.059	0.099	1.62
W5	2	217350	0.34	0.34	-0.045	0.529	0.533	0.642	0.273	0.041	0.037	0.059	1.49
W5	3	76590	0.338	0.36	-0.052	0.527	0.451	0.647	0.247	0.03	0.028	0.044	1.28
W5	4	182160	0.34	0.34	-0.021	0.555	0.498	0.622	0.273	0.074	0.069	0.107	1.32
W5	5	130410	0.304	0.3	0.014	0.585	0.5	0.632	0.269	0.124	0.113	0.179	1.36
W5	6	198720	0.324	0.3	0.057	0.648	0.61	0.58	0.331	0.206	0.185	0.293	1.45
W5	7	209070	0.334	0.34	0.058	0.656	0.602	0.559	0.341	0.219	0.201	0.31	1.37
W6	1	105570	0.331	0.34	-0.038	0.537	0.468	0.637	0.257	0.062	0.058	0.09	1.29
W6	2	217350	0.34	0.36	-0.052	0.528	0.447	0.638	0.25	0.041	0.039	0.059	1.24
W6	3	76590	0.337	0.36	-0.056	0.523	0.456	0.647	0.248	0.03	0.028	0.044	1.29
W6	4	182160	0.341	0.34	-0.025	0.557	0.501	0.615	0.278	0.088	0.082	0.127	1.3
W6	5	130410	0.304	0.28	0.007	0.572	0.566	0.65	0.276	0.105	0.09	0.152	1.62
W6	6	198720	0.324	0.3	0.041	0.629	0.593	0.593	0.318	0.179	0.16	0.255	1.46
W6	7	209070	0.334	0.34	0.043	0.635	0.574	0.579	0.321	0.178	0.163	0.253	1.36

block	season	n	base_rate	brier	bss_vs_clim	bss_vs_raw	auc
W1	DJF	262385	0.3996	0.14	0.42	0.505	0.875
W1	MAM	281320	0.4301	0.1456	0.407	0.548	0.869
W1	JJA	292140	0.4568	0.1834	0.263	0.497	0.795
W1	SON	281320	0.4354	0.1617	0.343	0.518	0.839
W2	DJF	265090	0.3219	0.193	0.117	0.252	0.713
W2	MAM	281320	0.332	0.1829	0.177	0.329	0.755
W2	JJA	292140	0.3458	0.2094	0.076	0.331	0.666
W2	SON	281320	0.3224	0.196	0.104	0.317	0.697
W3	DJF	265090	0.3301	0.2188	0.012	0.243	0.609
W3	MAM	281320	0.3295	0.2046	0.075	0.299	0.673
W3	JJA	292140	0.3499	0.2213	0.029	0.318	0.613
W3	SON	281320	0.3147	0.2095	0.031	0.285	0.618
W4	DJF	265090	0.3316	0.2242	-0.01	0.23	0.584
W4	MAM	281320	0.3316	0.2107	0.051	0.29	0.65
W4	JJA	292140	0.3511	0.2293	-0.004	0.315	0.556
W4	SON	281320	0.3091	0.2103	0.019	0.279	0.606
W5	DJF	265090	0.3329	0.2255	-0.014	0.252	0.577
W5	MAM	281320	0.3284	0.2123	0.039	0.294	0.641
W5	JJA	292140	0.3504	0.2293	-0.005	0.306	0.55
W5	SON	281320	0.3111	0.2156	-0.003	0.264	0.581
W6	DJF	265090	0.3341	0.2273	-0.021	0.247	0.558
W6	MAM	281320	0.327	0.2148	0.025	0.289	0.623
W6	JJA	292140	0.3509	0.2308	-0.011	0.305	0.541
W6	SON	281320	0.311	0.2185	-0.016	0.265	0.575

block	severity	rate_lo	rate_hi	n_cells	n	base_rate	brier	bss_vs_clim	bss_vs_raw	auc
W1	Low	0.306	0.414	181	373765	0.3919	0.1642	0.317	0.461	0.826
W1	Moderate	0.414	0.449	180	371700	0.4327	0.1579	0.357	0.514	0.847
W1	High	0.449	0.553	180	371700	0.4693	0.1524	0.392	0.567	0.86
W2	Low	0.256	0.32	181	374670	0.3023	0.1856	0.125	0.31	0.717
W2	Moderate	0.32	0.339	180	372600	0.3299	0.198	0.105	0.29	0.702
W2	High	0.339	0.435	180	372600	0.3603	0.2029	0.124	0.327	0.708
W3	Low	0.256	0.321	181	374670	0.303	0.2023	0.047	0.288	0.639
W3	Moderate	0.321	0.339	180	372600	0.3304	0.2168	0.021	0.269	0.617
W3	High	0.34	0.435	180	372600	0.3606	0.2216	0.043	0.306	0.629
W4	Low	0.256	0.321	181	374670	0.3027	0.2064	0.027	0.278	0.615
W4	Moderate	0.321	0.339	180	372600	0.3302	0.2219	-0.002	0.262	0.588
W4	High	0.339	0.435	180	372600	0.3603	0.2277	0.017	0.301	0.599
W5	Low	0.256	0.321	181	374670	0.3025	0.2089	0.015	0.281	0.599
W5	Moderate	0.321	0.339	180	372600	0.3301	0.2235	-0.01	0.264	0.577
W5	High	0.339	0.435	180	372600	0.3601	0.2297	0.008	0.295	0.588
W6	Low	0.256	0.321	181	374670	0.3025	0.2106	0.007	0.277	0.587
W6	Moderate	0.322	0.339	180	372600	0.3304	0.2262	-0.021	0.262	0.564
W6	High	0.339	0.434	180	372600	0.36	0.232	-0.002	0.294	0.579

year	n_inits	tx_min	tx_max	tx_mean	path
2004	104	-3.65	41.6	27.65	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2004.nc
2005	104	-1.95	42.6	27.65	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2005.nc
2006	104	-2.56	42.11	27.76	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2006.nc
2007	104	0.51	42.34	27.63	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2007.nc
2008	104	-2.75	40.65	27.08	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2008.nc
2009	104	-1.85	42.13	27.73	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2009.nc
2010	104	-2.36	43.47	27.91	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2010.nc
2011	104	-3.07	39.21	27	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2011.nc
2012	104	-4.03	42.19	27.54	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2012.nc
2013	104	-1.26	42.35	27.74	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2013.nc
2014	104	-0.15	41.76	27.67	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2014.nc
2015	104	0.18	42.77	27.98	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2015.nc
2016	104	-4.54	43.98	27.98	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2016.nc
2017	104	-1.77	40.78	27.48	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2017.nc
2018	104	-2.62	43.37	27.64	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2018.nc
2019	104	0.53	43.14	28.39	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2019.nc
2020	104	-2.85	43.15	27.96	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2020.nc
2021	104	-0.86	41.57	27.59	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2021.nc
2022	104	-1.62	40.11	27.36	/home/tanpv/Progs/claude/QG_1/outputs/forecast_daily_tx/fc_daily_tx_2022.nc

region	n_stn	elev_mean	bias	mae	rmse	corr	ehd_freq_stn	ehd_freq_grid	region_name	ehd_freq_diff
1	19	629.8	2.242	2.949	3.258	0.937	0.421	0.109	R1 Tay Bac	0.312
2	48	304.4	1.633	2.16	2.402	0.977	0.362	0.099	R2 Dong Bac	0.263
3	26	30.96	1.521	1.677	1.883	0.984	0.311	0.103	R3 DB Bac Bo	0.208
4	30	78	1.541	1.842	2.102	0.976	0.33	0.122	R4 Bac Trung Bo	0.208
5	16	17.62	1.989	2.081	2.287	0.905	0.503	0.109	R5 Nam Trung Bo	0.394
6	21	567.3	1.928	2.01	2.196	0.934	0.477	0.103	R6 Tay Nguyen	0.374
7	29	23.64	1.67	1.795	2.011	0.832	0.587	0.119	R7 Nam Bo	0.468

Gridded vs station obs — per station

results/tables/obs_reconciliation_station.csv · 189 rows × 12 cols

Per-station gridded-vs-observed comparison: stations run ≈ +1.5…+2.2 °C warmer than their grid cell, so station-scale EHD frequency is 2–5× the gridded frequency. Used for independent validation, not calibration.

name	region	lon	lat	elev	n	bias_stn_minus_grid	mae	rmse	corr	ehd_freq_stn	ehd_freq_grid
ALUOI	4	107.3	16.22	572	8030	1.61	1.66	1.82	0.986	0.3425	0.0963
ANKHE	6	108.7	13.95	422	8030	0.53	0.91	1.16	0.964	0.1717	0.1002
ANNHON	5	109.1	13.87	7	5720	2.84	2.87	3.09	0.946	0.5988	0.0946
AYUNPA	6	108.5	13.38	159	8030	2.11	2.12	2.26	0.969	0.5279	0.1328
BACGIANG	2	106.2	21.3	7	8030	1.48	1.66	1.88	0.983	0.32	0.098
BACHA	2	104.3	22.53	957	8030	0.15	0.8	1.07	0.985	0.1497	0.0979
BACKAN	2	105.8	22.15	174	8030	2.63	2.72	2.98	0.976	0.4971	0.0988
BACLIEU	7	105.7	9.283	2	8030	1.56	1.62	1.84	0.805	0.6501	0.0983
BACME	2	105.4	22.73	74	8030	2.39	2.42	2.62	0.989	0.4012	0.0979
BACNINH	3	106.1	21.18	8	8030	1.3	1.5	1.7	0.985	0.2913	0.1016
BACQUANG	2	104.9	22.5	74	8030	3.03	3.08	3.33	0.976	0.4884	0.0999
BACSON	2	106.3	21.9	400	8029	1.17	1.39	1.62	0.985	0.2918	0.0981
BACYEN	1	104.4	21.25	65	8029	-0.82	1.03	1.31	0.985	0.0522	0.112
BADON	4	106.4	17.75	8	8029	1.5	1.94	2.26	0.964	0.3594	0.0995
BAICHAY	2	107.1	20.97	87	8030	0.76	1.23	1.47	0.973	0.2469	0.0951
BAITHUONG	4	105.4	19.9	21	8030	1.83	1.91	2.15	0.982	0.3421	0.1034
BAOLAC	2	105.7	22.95	258	7910	4.1	4.11	4.3	0.982	0.5767	0.0989
BAOLOC	6	107.8	11.53	841	8030	0.9	1.24	1.51	0.848	0.3005	0.0983
BATO	5	108.7	14.77	51	8030	2.24	2.25	2.38	0.987	0.4763	0.1046
BATRI	7	106.6	10.05	1	8030	1.57	1.65	1.91	0.801	0.5831	0.0961
BAVI	3	105.4	21.15	20	8030	1.01	1.2	1.39	0.989	0.2564	0.1056
BENTRE	7	106.4	10.23	4	3522	2.24	2.24	2.34	0.927	0.7808	0.161
BIENHOA	7	106.8	10.92	-3	6092	2.08	2.11	2.31	0.874	0.674	0.1413
BMTHUOT	6	108	12.67	470	8030	1	1.16	1.36	0.956	0.3288	0.1108
BUONHO	6	108.3	12.92	707	8030	1.46	1.55	1.77	0.946	0.3958	0.0981
CAMAU	7	105.2	9.183	3	8030	1.6	1.62	1.79	0.892	0.5788	0.0979
CAMRANH	5	109.2	11.92	16	8030	1.96	1.97	2.08	0.963	0.599	0.0965
CANGLONG	7	106.2	9.983	2	8030	1.75	1.78	1.93	0.899	0.5523	0.099
CANTHO	7	105.8	10.03	3	8030	1.73	1.76	1.92	0.903	0.5476	0.0996
CAOBANG	2	106.2	22.67	258	8030	2.6	2.65	2.83	0.988	0.4361	0.099
CAOLANH	7	105.6	10.47	2	8030	1.16	1.33	1.56	0.853	0.4179	0.1052
CATTIEN	6	107.4	11.63	161	730	3.23	3.23	3.35	0.906	0.7192	0.0877
CHAUDOC	7	105.1	10.7	5	8030	1.51	1.58	1.8	0.868	0.5499	0.1177
CHIEMHOA	2	105.3	22.15	50	7178	2.09	2.15	2.35	0.986	0.4089	0.1017
CHILINH	3	106.4	21.08	30	8029	1.73	1.83	2.05	0.986	0.3637	0.0979
CHINE	3	105.8	20.48	25	8030	1.72	1.79	1.97	0.989	0.3154	0.1047
CHORA	2	105.7	22.45	210	8030	1.95	2	2.17	0.989	0.3595	0.0993
CONCUONG	4	104.9	19.05	32	8030	1.64	1.77	2	0.983	0.3469	0.159
CONOI	1	104.2	21.13	704	8030	0.24	1.04	1.44	0.971	0.1036	0.1158
CUAONG	2	107.3	21.02	60	8030	1.83	2.22	2.55	0.955	0.4717	0.0948
CUCPHUONG	3	105.7	20.25	155	5720	1.33	1.53	1.73	0.985	0.2946	0.1086
DAKMIL	6	107.6	12.45	760	8030	1	1.14	1.32	0.956	0.3349	0.0964
DAKNONG	6	107.7	12	631	8030	1.73	1.77	1.95	0.947	0.4286	0.0988
DAKTO	6	107.8	14.65	620	8030	2.03	2.05	2.21	0.951	0.4499	0.0978
DALAT	6	108.5	11.95	1509	8030	1.99	1.99	2.1	0.951	0.5472	0.0995
DANANG	5	108.2	16.03	6	8030	1.61	1.74	1.99	0.961	0.3717	0.1011
DIENBIEN	1	103	21.37	479	8030	2.72	2.78	3.05	0.944	0.537	0.0976
DINHHOA	2	105.6	21.92	220	8030	1.51	1.65	1.86	0.986	0.3413	0.0985
DINHLAP	2	107.1	21.53	174	8030	1.61	1.73	1.94	0.985	0.3395	0.0989
DOLUONG	4	105.3	18.9	14	8030	1.51	1.67	1.91	0.983	0.3242	0.1362
DONGHA	4	107.1	16.85	7	8030	1.8	2.05	2.31	0.967	0.3635	0.1249
DONGHOI	4	106.6	17.48	7	8030	1.81	2.08	2.42	0.96	0.3684	0.0991
DONGPHU	6	106.9	11.53	82	8030	2.06	2.12	2.33	0.883	0.6733	0.1389
DONGVAN	2	105.3	23.25	1379	3516	1.5	1.86	2.23	0.966	0.4101	0.1189
DONGXOAI	7	106.9	11.53	88.6	1095	2.06	2.07	2.22	0.939	0.6813	0.1516
EAHLEO	6	108.2	13.22	615	8030	1.06	1.31	1.5	0.945	0.2908	0.0975
EAKMAT	6	108.1	12.68	516	8030	2.06	2.07	2.23	0.967	0.4623	0.0971
HADONG	3	105.8	20.97	5	8030	1.43	1.54	1.74	0.987	0.2893	0.1046
HAGIANG	2	105	22.82	118	8030	1.52	1.6	1.82	0.986	0.3068	0.0975
HAIDUONG	3	106.3	20.93	2	8030	1.41	1.58	1.81	0.981	0.2841	0.0976
HAMTAN	7	107.8	10.68	15	8029	1.53	1.61	1.91	0.685	0.5891	0.0984
HAMYEN	2	105	22.07	47	8030	1.77	1.84	2.04	0.987	0.358	0.0973
HANAM	3	105.9	20.55	7	5840	1.57	1.63	1.8	0.99	0.2728	0.0925
HANOI	3	105.8	21.02	5	8030	1.79	1.87	2.05	0.989	0.3457	0.1046
HATINH	4	105.9	18.35	3	8029	1.22	1.55	1.78	0.979	0.2846	0.1268
HIEPHOA	2	106	21.35	5	8030	1.6	1.74	1.96	0.983	0.3342	0.1016
HOABINH	3	105.3	20.82	23	8030	1.69	1.83	2.03	0.983	0.3199	0.1137
HOAIDUC	3	105.8	21.07	10	4341	1.36	1.58	1.81	0.982	0.3506	0.1366
HOAINHON	5	109	14.52	6	8030	2.99	3	3.2	0.962	0.6807	0.0983
HOANGSUPHI	2	104.7	22.75	553	8030	2.58	2.6	2.77	0.987	0.4474	0.0993
HOANHSON	4	106.5	17.95	584	3525	1.5	1.69	1.96	0.975	0.366	0.1282
HOIXUAN	4	105.1	20.37	87	8030	3.44	3.53	3.82	0.959	0.4687	0.0983
HONDAU	3	106.8	20.67	38	8030	1.51	1.69	1.99	0.973	0.3757	0.0978
HONNGU	4	105.8	18.8	113	8029	-0.99	1.52	2.12	0.945	0.1056	0.1512
HUE	4	107.6	16.43	17	8030	1.87	1.93	2.13	0.989	0.4072	0.1007
HUNGYEN	3	106	20.65	4	8030	1.37	1.51	1.7	0.987	0.2762	0.1051
HUONGKHE	4	105.7	18.18	17	8028	1.66	1.77	1.96	0.988	0.3298	0.1492
HUONGSON	4	105.4	18.52	11	8029	1.47	1.65	1.87	0.983	0.3039	0.1288
HUULUNG	2	106.3	21.5	40	8030	1.8	1.89	2.08	0.987	0.3795	0.0969
KHESANH	4	106.7	16.63	367	8030	1.04	1.19	1.45	0.98	0.2238	0.1
KIMBOI	3	105.5	20.67	100	8030	2.05	2.14	2.35	0.983	0.3517	0.0985
KONTUM	6	108	14.33	536	8030	2.77	2.78	2.93	0.945	0.5872	0.0974
KYANH	4	106.3	18.08	3	8029	1.67	1.81	2.02	0.984	0.3298	0.0989
LAC	6	108.2	12.2	562	5348	4.05	4.05	4.26	0.892	0.7816	0.1058
LACSON	3	105.5	20.45	40	8030	1.69	1.76	1.95	0.988	0.312	0.1105
LAGI	5	107.8	10.67	7	1095	1.48	1.55	1.83	0.739	0.653	0.1443
LAICHAU	1	103.2	22.07	244	8030	2.96	2.99	3.17	0.974	0.5041	0.0975
LAK	6	108.2	12.37	423	5461	4.15	4.15	4.34	0.902	0.7869	0.0923
LANGSON	2	106.8	21.83	258	8030	1.24	1.51	1.74	0.987	0.3154	0.099
LAOCAI	2	104	22.5	99	8029	1.64	1.85	2.12	0.974	0.2963	0.1009
LIENKHUONG	6	108.4	11.75	957	8030	1.91	1.93	2.13	0.903	0.5437	0.0991
LONGKHANH	7	107.2	10.94	167	730	2.12	2.14	2.33	0.868	0.6397	0.1288
LUCNGAN	2	106.5	21.38	15	8030	1.73	1.82	2.04	0.985	0.3481	0.0984
LUCYEN	2	104.7	22.1	84	8030	1.97	2.06	2.29	0.983	0.3832	0.0984
MAICHAU	3	105	20.65	160	8030	2.68	2.71	2.89	0.983	0.3918	0.1002
MAUSON	2	107	21.85	800	4339	-2.4	2.57	2.93	0.955	0.0062	0.0184
MDRAK	6	108.8	12.73	419	8030	1.73	1.77	1.96	0.972	0.4149	0.0973
MINHDAI	2	105	21.17	100	8030	1.85	1.98	2.19	0.982	0.3405	0.0983
MOCCHAU	1	104.7	20.83	958	8028	0.56	0.97	1.23	0.981	0.1689	0.099
MOCHOA	7	105.9	10.78	3	8030	1.44	1.5	1.71	0.881	0.5041	0.1046
MONGCAI	2	108	21.52	7	8030	1.75	2.01	2.3	0.964	0.4792	0.0958
MUCANGCHAI	2	104	21.87	955	8030	1.14	1.43	1.74	0.961	0.2895	0.098
MUONGLA	1	104	21.52	250	6609	4.28	4.34	4.68	0.932	0.609	0.1058
MUONGLAY	1	103.2	22.07	243.2	730	3.03	3.03	3.17	0.977	0.6096	0.1534
MUONGTE	1	102.8	22.37	310	8030	3.49	3.53	3.81	0.943	0.5798	0.0981
MYTHO	7	106.4	10.35	2	8030	1.84	1.86	2.01	0.889	0.6284	0.098
NAMDINH	3	106.2	20.4	3	8030	1.84	1.9	2.08	0.989	0.3517	0.0965
NAMDONG	4	107.7	16.17	60	8030	1.71	1.76	1.93	0.987	0.403	0.1412
NGANSON	2	106	22.43	566	8030	1.62	1.79	2.02	0.983	0.3265	0.0988
NGASON	4	106	20.02	6	699	1.37	1.5	1.72	0.98	0.3705	0.1259
NGHIALO	2	104.5	21.58	274.6	1095	3.49	3.5	3.71	0.978	0.5571	0.137
NGUYENBINH	2	106	22.65	208	8030	1	1.29	1.5	0.985	0.2364	0.1001
NHABE	7	106.7	10.7	3	4015	1.67	1.73	1.91	0.875	0.5524	0.1163
NHATRANG	5	109.2	12.22	5	8030	0.93	1.2	1.44	0.916	0.2694	0.0971
NHOQUAN	3	105.7	20.33	3	8030	2.14	2.19	2.39	0.985	0.3592	0.0985
NHUXUAN	4	105.6	19.63	10	8030	1.65	1.77	1.99	0.984	0.305	0.1075
NINHBINH	3	106	20.23	2	8030	1.5	1.6	1.77	0.989	0.3035	0.0991
P-CANGIO	7	107	10.4	0	730	-0.27	1.47	1.79	0.52	0.2616	0.1575
P-DONGVAN	2	105.3	23.25	1488	730	1.52	1.83	2.16	0.974	0.4219	0.1397
P-NAMMUCTV	1	103.3	22.87	2217	730	1.15	3.61	4.3	0.775	0.4644	0.163
PHADIN	1	103.5	21.57	1347	8025	1.16	1.38	1.63	0.97	0.3089	0.0978
PHANRANG	5	109	11.58	6	8030	1.98	2.08	2.4	0.852	0.5032	0.0984
PHANRI	5	108.5	11.2	11	3525	1.71	1.75	1.89	0.884	0.5333	0.133
PHANTHIET	5	108.1	10.93	9	8030	1.28	1.88	2.22	0.441	0.4387	0.0974
PHIENGLANH	1	103.6	21.67	155.3	730	2.27	2.45	2.75	0.942	0.4726	0.1315
PHORANG	2	104.5	22.23	98	8030	2.28	2.36	2.59	0.981	0.4015	0.0979
PHUHO	2	105.2	21.45	36	8030	0.59	2.34	2.77	0.905	0.2802	0.0974
PHULIEN	3	106.6	20.8	113	8030	1.61	1.73	1.94	0.984	0.3989	0.0978
PHULY	3	105.9	20.55	3	8030	1.51	1.65	1.86	0.985	0.2998	0.1042
PHUOCLONG	6	107	11.83	198	8030	1.62	1.67	1.85	0.92	0.5202	0.1151
PHUQUOC	7	104	10.22	2	8030	2.83	2.83	3.05	0.645	0.9215	0.0991
PHUYEN	2	104.6	21.27	182	8029	1.85	1.97	2.19	0.98	0.3259	0.108
PLEIKU	6	108	13.97	779	8030	1.6	1.65	1.82	0.953	0.3817	0.0984
QUANGHA	2	107.8	21.45	10	8030	1.74	1.98	2.27	0.965	0.427	0.0971
QUANGNGAI	5	108.8	15.12	8	8030	1.69	1.75	1.93	0.975	0.4056	0.1174
QUYCHAU	4	105.1	19.57	87	8029	2.35	2.46	2.7	0.975	0.3893	0.1116
QUYHOP	4	105.2	19.32	88	8029	1.87	1.95	2.19	0.984	0.3631	0.1452
QUYNHLUU	4	105.6	19.17	3	8029	-0.01	1.4	1.94	0.941	0.1909	0.1619
QUYNHNHAI	1	103.6	21.85	155	7812	4.97	4.99	5.25	0.949	0.6767	0.1004
QUYNHON	5	109.2	13.77	5	8030	2.34	2.37	2.62	0.937	0.6187	0.0953
RACHGIA	7	105.1	10	2	8030	1.27	1.5	1.78	0.751	0.4625	0.0998
SAMSON	4	105.9	19.75	4	7909	1.51	1.79	2.11	0.971	0.3509	0.0979
SAPA	2	103.8	22.35	1570	8028	-2.84	2.87	3.19	0.964	0.0065	0.0999
SINHO	1	103.2	22.37	1529	8030	-2.98	3.07	3.33	0.946	0.0049	0.0968
SOCTRANG	7	106	9.6	3	8030	1.92	1.93	2.04	0.918	0.6895	0.097
SONDONG	2	106.8	21.33	59	8030	2.41	2.53	2.79	0.98	0.4922	0.0971
SONGMA	1	103.7	21.07	302	7998	2.42	2.48	2.7	0.97	0.4042	0.1074
SONHOA	5	109	13.05	5	7998	1.46	1.48	1.61	0.985	0.4285	0.1668
SONLA	1	103.9	21.33	676	8030	2.15	2.22	2.45	0.972	0.4037	0.0991
SONTAY	3	105.5	21.13	16	8030	1.24	1.36	1.55	0.989	0.2801	0.1056
TALAI	7	107.4	11.37	122	3501	2.38	2.4	2.8	0.801	0.6678	0.1408
TAMDAO	2	105.7	21.47	897	8030	-2.89	2.92	3.11	0.977	0.0146	0.1009
TAMDUONG	1	103.5	22.42	900	8030	1.12	1.41	1.66	0.969	0.2841	0.0988
TAMKY	5	108.5	15.57	5	8030	1.83	1.87	2.06	0.981	0.4067	0.0976
TANSONNHAT	7	106.7	10.82	10	4735	1.92	1.97	2.23	0.814	0.6444	0.0999
TAYHIEU	4	105.4	19.32	72	8030	1.39	1.6	1.82	0.983	0.3352	0.1514
TAYNINH	7	106.1	11.33	10	8030	1.36	1.44	1.64	0.893	0.5638	0.1484
THAIBINH	3	106.3	20.45	3	8030	1.16	1.36	1.56	0.982	0.2325	0.0965
THAINGUYEN	2	105.8	21.6	36	8030	3.56	3.57	3.75	0.981	0.5846	0.1009
THANHHOA	4	105.8	19.75	5	8030	1.29	1.45	1.63	0.986	0.2667	0.1035
THANUYEN	2	103.9	21.95	556	8030	3.9	3.91	4.14	0.965	0.6049	0.099
THATKHE	2	106.5	22.25	275	8030	1.71	1.85	2.06	0.987	0.3275	0.0988
THUDAUMOT	7	106.6	10.97	0	3511	1.76	1.79	1.99	0.898	0.6263	0.1609
TIENYEN	2	107.4	21.33	14	8030	2.15	2.39	2.74	0.958	0.5494	0.0943
TINHGIA	4	105.8	19.45	5	8029	1.17	1.71	2.01	0.962	0.2729	0.1234
TRAMY	5	108.2	15.33	123	8029	3.65	3.65	3.79	0.982	0.6376	0.0985
TRANOC	7	105.7	10.1	4	4342	1.19	1.33	1.58	0.848	0.4539	0.137
TRIAN	7	107	11.08	65	6432	1.3	1.45	1.68	0.871	0.4714	0.1281
TRUNGKHANH	2	106.5	22.83	520	8030	0.69	1.07	1.29	0.988	0.2215	0.0979
TUANGIAO	1	103.4	22.58	570	8030	4.54	5.32	5.92	0.714	0.6563	0.0988
TUONGDUONG	4	104.4	19.28	97	8030	3.04	3.07	3.29	0.98	0.4563	0.1121
TUYENHOA	4	106	17.88	25	8030	2.03	2.06	2.26	0.989	0.3676	0.1339
TUYENQUANG	2	105.2	21.82	42	8030	1.98	2.06	2.27	0.984	0.3927	0.098
TUYHOA	5	109.3	13.08	12	8030	1.83	1.88	2.06	0.967	0.4319	0.1005
UONGBI	2	106.8	21.03	4	8030	1.39	1.48	1.66	0.986	0.3021	0.098
VANCHAN	2	104.5	21.58	257	8030	3.4	3.44	3.72	0.97	0.5264	0.098
VANLY	3	106.3	20.12	3	8030	0.46	1.12	1.37	0.974	0.1918	0.0966
VANYEN	1	104.7	20.05	803	730	5.62	5.64	6.07	0.916	0.6315	0.1014
VIETTRI	3	105.4	21.3	17	8030	1	1.37	1.61	0.978	0.2601	0.1056
VINH	4	105.7	18.67	6	8029	0.72	1.34	1.63	0.972	0.2726	0.1512
VINHLONG	7	106	10.25	4	3511	1.75	1.77	1.94	0.909	0.5998	0.1475
VINHYEN	3	105.6	21.32	10	8030	1.44	1.62	1.88	0.981	0.3081	0.1056
VITHANH	7	105.5	9.817	0	3511	1.53	1.62	1.82	0.882	0.5158	0.1228
VUNGTAU	7	107.1	10.37	4	8030	1.56	1.85	2.14	0.553	0.5553	0.0989
XUANLOC	7	107.2	10.93	162	8030	2.06	2.11	2.35	0.864	0.6523	0.108
YALY	6	107.8	14.2	547	8030	1.49	1.56	1.78	0.939	0.3667	0.0976
YENBAI	2	104.9	21.7	56	8030	1.85	1.94	2.14	0.986	0.3658	0.0989
YENCHAU	1	104.3	21.05	59	8030	3.72	3.75	3.99	0.97	0.5331	0.0993
YENDINH	4	105.7	19.98	9	8028	1.55	1.67	1.87	0.984	0.2995	0.1003

region	name	n_cells	lat_centroid	lon_centroid	lat_min	lat_max
2	R2 Dong Bac (Northeast)	105	22.1	105.6	21	23.25
1	R1 Tay Bac (Northwest)	51	21.71	103.4	20.75	22.75
3	R3 DB Bac Bo (Red River Delta)	37	20.64	105.7	20	21.25
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo (North Central)	88	18.3	105.8	16	20.25
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo (South Central)	63	13.83	108.7	10.75	16
6	R6 Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands)	96	12.98	107.9	11.25	15.25
7	R7 Nam Bo (South)	101	10.3	106	8.5	11.75

Regional partition / operational flag table

results/tables/regional_partition.csv · 42 rows × 11 cols

Per region × block: observed positive/negative counts, positive_ratio, the binary regional_flag (1 if the region is flagged), and skill (BSS/AUC/CSI/HSS). Region names attached. Land cells sum to 541.

region	region_name	block	positive	negative	positive_ratio	regional_flag	bss_vs_clim	auc	CSI	HSS
1	R1 Tay Bac	W1	51136	54944	0.482	0	0.371	0.854	0.594	0.531
2	R2 Dong Bac	W1	102731	115669	0.47	0	0.365	0.85	0.6	0.534
3	R3 DB Bac Bo	W1	37211	39749	0.484	0	0.398	0.866	0.621	0.562
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo	W1	84562	98478	0.462	0	0.413	0.871	0.619	0.568
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo	W1	57891	73149	0.442	0	0.246	0.786	0.49	0.411
6	R6 Tay Nguyen	W1	90672	109008	0.454	0	0.366	0.85	0.575	0.526
7	R7 Nam Bo	W1	95944	114136	0.457	0	0.33	0.833	0.563	0.501
1	R1 Tay Bac	W2	50220	55860	0.473	0	0.077	0.681	0.362	0.235
2	R2 Dong Bac	W2	93809	124591	0.43	0	0.061	0.661	0.344	0.213
3	R3 DB Bac Bo	W2	37055	39905	0.481	0	0.064	0.67	0.359	0.218
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo	W2	82670	100370	0.452	0	0.097	0.696	0.376	0.259
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo	W2	58285	72755	0.445	0	0.099	0.692	0.348	0.243
6	R6 Tay Nguyen	W2	86505	113175	0.433	0	0.181	0.757	0.417	0.346
7	R7 Nam Bo	W2	90889	119191	0.433	0	0.189	0.759	0.424	0.351
1	R1 Tay Bac	W3	51644	54436	0.487	0	-0.007	0.585	0.304	0.119
2	R2 Dong Bac	W3	106816	111584	0.489	0	-0.023	0.563	0.294	0.089
3	R3 DB Bac Bo	W3	32579	44381	0.423	0	-0.028	0.56	0.273	0.084
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo	W3	83163	99877	0.454	0	0.007	0.593	0.304	0.125
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo	W3	59397	71643	0.453	0	0.034	0.615	0.293	0.14
6	R6 Tay Nguyen	W3	88175	111505	0.442	0	0.098	0.69	0.359	0.248
7	R7 Nam Bo	W3	98136	111944	0.467	0	0.118	0.709	0.383	0.269
1	R1 Tay Bac	W4	54949	51131	0.518	1	-0.015	0.561	0.294	0.087
2	R2 Dong Bac	W4	109704	108696	0.502	1	-0.051	0.525	0.273	0.04
3	R3 DB Bac Bo	W4	39665	37295	0.515	1	-0.045	0.535	0.28	0.05
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo	W4	84439	98601	0.461	0	-0.012	0.57	0.289	0.093
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo	W4	53612	77428	0.409	0	0.025	0.602	0.28	0.136
6	R6 Tay Nguyen	W4	82526	117154	0.413	0	0.07	0.661	0.334	0.216
7	R7 Nam Bo	W4	94874	115206	0.452	0	0.082	0.678	0.355	0.227
1	R1 Tay Bac	W5	57053	49027	0.538	1	-0.025	0.547	0.285	0.059
2	R2 Dong Bac	W5	110827	107573	0.507	1	-0.045	0.529	0.273	0.037
3	R3 DB Bac Bo	W5	33345	43615	0.433	0	-0.052	0.527	0.247	0.028
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo	W5	82356	100684	0.45	0	-0.021	0.555	0.273	0.069
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo	W5	54233	76807	0.414	0	0.014	0.585	0.269	0.113
6	R6 Tay Nguyen	W5	94052	105628	0.471	0	0.057	0.648	0.331	0.185
7	R7 Nam Bo	W5	95914	114166	0.457	0	0.058	0.656	0.341	0.201
1	R1 Tay Bac	W6	45361	60719	0.428	0	-0.038	0.537	0.257	0.058
2	R2 Dong Bac	W6	91789	126611	0.42	0	-0.052	0.528	0.25	0.039
3	R3 DB Bac Bo	W6	33516	43444	0.435	0	-0.056	0.523	0.248	0.028
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo	W6	81100	101940	0.443	0	-0.025	0.557	0.278	0.082
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo	W6	64456	66584	0.492	0	0.007	0.572	0.276	0.09
6	R6 Tay Nguyen	W6	94433	105247	0.473	0	0.041	0.629	0.318	0.16
7	R7 Nam Bo	W6	95782	114298	0.456	0	0.043	0.635	0.321	0.163

block	family	n_test	base_rate	brier	bss_vs_clim	auc	dec_thr	POD	FAR	CSI	Peirce	freq_bias	bss_vs_raw
W1	raw	56264	0.363	0.2945	-0.186	0.65	0.02	0.463	0.39	0.357	0.294	0.76	0
W1	climat	56264	0.363	0.2484	0	0.5	0.02	1	0.637	0.363	0	2.76	0.157
W1	logistic	56264	0.363	0.2026	0.184	0.732	0.5	0.583	0.439	0.4	0.323	1.04	0.312
W1	hgb	56264	0.363	0.1689	0.32	0.812	0.5	0.63	0.351	0.47	0.437	0.97	0.426
W2	raw	56264	0.271	0.242	-0.15	0.597	0.02	0.369	0.57	0.248	0.187	0.86	0
W2	climat	56264	0.271	0.2103	0	0.5	0.02	1	0.729	0.271	-0	3.69	0.131
W2	logistic	56264	0.271	0.1911	0.091	0.673	0.38	0.605	0.612	0.309	0.249	1.56	0.21
W2	hgb	56264	0.271	0.1841	0.125	0.696	0.4	0.565	0.59	0.312	0.263	1.38	0.239
W3	raw	56264	0.273	0.2509	-0.19	0.577	0.02	0.333	0.6	0.222	0.146	0.83	0
W3	climat	56264	0.273	0.2108	0	0.5	0.02	1	0.727	0.273	-0	3.66	0.16
W3	logistic	56264	0.273	0.198	0.061	0.642	0.38	0.595	0.635	0.292	0.206	1.63	0.211
W3	hgb	56264	0.273	0.2014	0.044	0.617	0.4	0.493	0.645	0.26	0.156	1.39	0.197
W4	raw	56264	0.264	0.2569	-0.23	0.534	0.02	0.264	0.68	0.169	0.063	0.83	0
W4	climat	56264	0.264	0.2089	0	0.5	0.02	1	0.736	0.264	-0	3.79	0.187
W4	logistic	56264	0.264	0.2019	0.033	0.595	0.38	0.601	0.677	0.266	0.15	1.86	0.214
W4	hgb	56264	0.264	0.2108	-0.009	0.549	0.4	0.429	0.699	0.215	0.073	1.42	0.179
W5	raw	56264	0.258	0.2507	-0.207	0.538	0.02	0.294	0.69	0.178	0.067	0.95	0
W5	climat	56264	0.258	0.2077	0	0.5	0.02	1	0.742	0.258	-0	3.87	0.172
W5	logistic	56264	0.258	0.2005	0.034	0.611	0.38	0.623	0.68	0.268	0.163	1.95	0.2
W5	hgb	56264	0.258	0.2086	-0.004	0.562	0.4	0.467	0.695	0.226	0.096	1.53	0.168
W6	raw	56264	0.26	0.2579	-0.242	0.533	0.02	0.265	0.683	0.169	0.064	0.84	0
W6	climat	56264	0.26	0.2077	0	0.5	0.02	1	0.74	0.26	-0	3.84	0.195
W6	logistic	56264	0.26	0.2014	0.031	0.59	0.38	0.579	0.686	0.256	0.135	1.84	0.219
W6	hgb	56264	0.26	0.2042	0.017	0.582	0.4	0.463	0.688	0.229	0.104	1.49	0.208

Station metadata

results/tables/station_metadata.csv · 200 rows × 10 cols

The ~200 validation stations: identifiers and coordinates. Independent point validation only.

name	file	lon	lat	elev	region	start	end	n_days	frac_missing_in_span
ALUOI	Tx_ALUOI.txt	107.3	16.22	572	4	1974-07-01	2025-12-31	18710	0.005
ANKHE	Tx_ANKHE.txt	108.7	13.95	422	6	1979-01-01	2025-12-31	17136	0.002
ANNHON	Tx_ANNHON.txt	109.1	13.87	7	5	1998-01-02	2025-12-31	7089	0.307
AYUNPA	Tx_AYUNPA.txt	108.5	13.38	159	6	1979-01-01	2025-12-31	17167	0
BACGIANG	Tx_BACGIANG.txt	106.2	21.3	7	2	1971-01-01	2025-12-31	20058	0.002
BACHA	Tx_BACHA.txt	104.3	22.53	957	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23376	0.015
BACHLONGVI	Tx_BACHLONGVI.txt	107.7	20.13	63	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23583	0.007
BACKAN	Tx_BACKAN.txt	105.8	22.15	174	2	1971-01-01	2025-12-31	20058	0.002
BACLIEU	Tx_BACLIEU.txt	105.7	9.283	2	7	1980-01-01	2025-12-31	16802	0
BACME	Tx_BACME.txt	105.4	22.73	74	2	1964-01-01	2025-12-31	21517	0.05
BACNINH	Tx_BACNINH.txt	106.1	21.18	8	3	1998-01-02	2025-12-31	9665	0.055
BACQUANG	Tx_BACQUANG.txt	104.9	22.5	74	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
BACSON	Tx_BACSON.txt	106.3	21.9	400	2	1963-02-01	2025-12-31	22304	0.029
BACYEN	Tx_BACYEN.txt	104.4	21.25	65	1	1973-06-01	2025-12-31	19145	0.003
BADON	Tx_BADON.txt	106.4	17.75	8	4	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	22887	0.036
BAICHAY	Tx_BAICHAY.txt	107.1	20.97	87	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
BAITHUONG	Tx_BAITHUONG.txt	105.4	19.9	21	4	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23527	0.009
BAOLAC	Tx_BAOLAC.txt	105.7	22.95	258	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23616	0.005
BAOLOC	Tx_BAOLOC.txt	107.8	11.53	841	6	1979-01-01	2025-12-31	17167	0
BATO	Tx_BATO.txt	108.7	14.77	51	5	1980-01-01	2025-12-31	16741	0.004
BATRI	Tx_BATRI.txt	106.6	10.05	1	7	1979-02-01	2025-12-31	16678	0.027
BAVI	Tx_BAVI.txt	105.4	21.15	20	3	1970-01-01	2025-12-31	20423	0.002
BENTRE	Tx_BENTRE.txt	106.4	10.23	4	7	2014-05-09	2025-10-31	4194	0
BIENHOA	Tx_BIENHOA.txt	106.8	10.92	-3	7	1998-01-02	2025-12-31	7462	0.27
BMTHUOT	Tx_BMTHUOT.txt	108	12.67	470	6	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
BUONHO	Tx_BUONHO.txt	108.3	12.92	707	6	1982-01-01	2025-12-31	16071	0
CAMAU	Tx_CAMAU.txt	105.2	9.183	3	7	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	22403	0.056
CAMRANH	Tx_CAMRANH.txt	109.2	11.92	16	5	1978-01-01	2025-12-31	17501	0.002
CANGLONG	Tx_CANGLONG.txt	106.2	9.983	2	7	1978-01-01	2025-12-31	16801	0.042
CANTHO	Tx_CANTHO.txt	105.8	10.03	3	7	1964-01-01	2025-12-31	20454	0.097
CAOBANG	Tx_CAOBANG.txt	106.2	22.67	258	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23590	0.006
CAOLANH	Tx_CAOLANH.txt	105.6	10.47	2	7	1979-01-01	2025-12-31	16801	0.021
CATTIEN	Tx_CATTIEN.txt	107.4	11.63	161	6	2022-01-01	2025-12-31	1461	0
CHAUDOC	Tx_CHAUDOC.txt	105.1	10.7	5	7	1979-01-01	2025-12-31	17167	0
CHIEMHOA	Tx_CHIEMHOA.txt	105.3	22.15	50	2	1962-01-01	2025-12-31	22036	0.057
CHILINH	Tx_CHILINH.txt	106.4	21.08	30	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	19296	0.187
CHINE	Tx_CHINE.txt	105.8	20.48	25	3	1973-01-01	2025-12-31	19357	0
CHORA	Tx_CHORA.txt	105.7	22.45	210	2	1961-06-01	2025-12-31	23588	0
CONCO	Tx_CONCO.txt	107.3	17.17	6	4	1974-06-01	2025-12-31	18842	0
CONCUONG	Tx_CONCUONG.txt	104.9	19.05	32	4	1961-01-02	2025-12-31	23649	0.004
CONDAO	Tx_CONDAO.txt	106.6	8.683	9	7	1978-05-01	2025-12-31	17319	0.005
CONOI	Tx_CONOI.txt	104.2	21.13	704	1	1963-07-01	2025-12-31	22620	0.009
COTO	Tx_COTO.txt	107.8	20.98	70	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
CUAONG	Tx_CUAONG.txt	107.3	21.02	60	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23694	0.002
CUCPHUONG	Tx_CUCPHUONG.txt	105.7	20.25	155	3	1998-01-02	2025-12-31	7089	0.307
DAKMIL	Tx_DAKMIL.txt	107.6	12.45	760	6	1998-01-01	2025-12-31	10227	0
DAKNONG	Tx_DAKNONG.txt	107.7	12	631	6	1978-01-01	2025-12-31	17348	0.01
DAKTO	Tx_DAKTO.txt	107.8	14.65	620	6	1978-02-01	2025-12-31	17471	0.002
DALAT	Tx_DALAT.txt	108.5	11.95	1509	6	1964-01-01	2025-12-31	20956	0.075
DANANG	Tx_DANANG.txt	108.2	16.03	6	5	1976-01-01	2025-12-31	18263	0
DIENBIEN	Tx_DIENBIEN.txt	103	21.37	479	1	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
DINHHOA	Tx_DINHHOA.txt	105.6	21.92	220	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23697	0.002
DINHLAP	Tx_DINHLAP.txt	107.1	21.53	174	2	1963-01-01	2025-12-31	22415	0.026
DK1-7	Tx_DK1-7.txt	110.6	8.017	19	7	1998-01-01	2025-09-30	7390	0.271
DOLUONG	Tx_DOLUONG.txt	105.3	18.9	14	4	1961-02-01	2025-12-31	23680	0.001
DONGHA	Tx_DONGHA.txt	107.1	16.85	7	4	1973-01-01	2025-12-31	19358	0
DONGHOI	Tx_DONGHOI.txt	106.6	17.48	7	4	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
DONGPHU	Tx_DONGPHU.txt	106.9	11.53	82	6	1979-01-01	2025-12-31	17167	0
DONGVAN	Tx_DONGVAN.txt	105.3	23.25	1379	2	2014-05-13	2025-12-31	4249	0
DONGXOAI	Tx_DONGXOAI.txt	106.9	11.53	88.6	7	2019-01-01	2021-12-31	1096	0
EAHLEO	Tx_EAHLEO.txt	108.2	13.22	615	6	1998-01-02	2025-12-31	9401	0.081
EAKMAT	Tx_EAKMAT.txt	108.1	12.68	516	6	1998-01-01	2025-12-31	10227	0
HADONG	Tx_HADONG.txt	105.8	20.97	5	3	1973-08-01	2025-12-31	19146	0
HAGIANG	Tx_HAGIANG.txt	105	22.82	118	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
HAIDUONG	Tx_HAIDUONG.txt	106.3	20.93	2	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
HAMTAN	Tx_HAMTAN.txt	107.8	10.68	15	7	1978-05-01	2025-12-31	17381	0.002
HAMYEN	Tx_HAMYEN.txt	105	22.07	47	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
HANAM	Tx_HANAM.txt	105.9	20.55	7	3	1961-01-01	2021-12-31	20788	0.067
HANOI	Tx_HANOI.txt	105.8	21.02	5	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
HATINH	Tx_HATINH.txt	105.9	18.35	3	4	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23740	0
HIEPHOA	Tx_HIEPHOA.txt	106	21.35	5	2	1971-01-01	2025-12-31	20057	0.002
HOABINH	Tx_HOABINH.txt	105.3	20.82	23	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
HOAIDUC	Tx_HOAIDUC.txt	105.8	21.07	10	3	2010-05-27	2025-12-31	5074	0.11
HOAINHON	Tx_HOAINHON.txt	109	14.52	6	5	1978-03-01	2025-12-31	17473	0
HOANGSUPHI	Tx_HOANGSUPHI.txt	104.7	22.75	553	2	1961-07-01	2025-12-31	23496	0.003
HOANHSON	Tx_HOANHSON.txt	106.5	17.95	584	4	2014-05-06	2025-12-31	4258	0
HOIXUAN	Tx_HOIXUAN.txt	105.1	20.37	87	4	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23619	0.005
HONDAU	Tx_HONDAU.txt	106.8	20.67	38	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23710	0.001
HONNGU	Tx_HONNGU.txt	105.8	18.8	113	4	1961-02-01	2025-12-31	19665	0.171
HUE	Tx_HUE.txt	107.6	16.43	17	4	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23180	0.024
HUNGYEN	Tx_HUNGYEN.txt	106	20.65	4	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
HUONGKHE	Tx_HUONGKHE.txt	105.7	18.18	17	4	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23526	0.009
HUONGSON	Tx_HUONGSON.txt	105.4	18.52	11	4	1961-03-01	2025-12-31	23291	0.017
HUULUNG	Tx_HUULUNG.txt	106.3	21.5	40	2	1961-02-01	2025-12-31	20087	0.153
HUYENTRAN	Tx_HUYENTRAN.txt	110.6	8.02	0	7	1998-01-01	2025-12-31	10041	0.018
KHESANH	Tx_KHESANH.txt	106.7	16.63	367	4	1976-01-01	2025-12-31	18101	0.009
KIMBOI	Tx_KIMBOI.txt	105.5	20.67	100	3	1963-01-01	2025-12-31	23003	0
KONTUM	Tx_KONTUM.txt	108	14.33	536	6	1976-01-01	2025-12-31	18232	0.002
KYANH	Tx_KYANH.txt	106.3	18.08	3	4	1961-10-01	2025-12-31	23437	0.001
LAC	Tx_LAC.txt	108.2	12.2	562	6	2009-05-07	2025-12-31	6082	0
LACSON	Tx_LACSON.txt	105.5	20.45	40	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23705	0.002
LAGI	Tx_LAGI.txt	107.8	10.67	7	5	2019-01-01	2021-12-31	1096	0
LAICHAU	Tx_LAICHAU.txt	103.2	22.07	244	1	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
LAK	Tx_LAK.txt	108.2	12.37	423	6	1998-01-01	2025-12-31	7656	0.251
LANGSON	Tx_LANGSON.txt	106.8	21.83	258	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23612	0.005
LAOCAI	Tx_LAOCAI.txt	104	22.5	99	2	1998-01-01	2025-12-31	10215	0.001
LIENKHUONG	Tx_LIENKHUONG.txt	108.4	11.75	957	6	1981-01-01	2025-12-31	16224	0.013
LONGKHANH	Tx_LONGKHANH.txt	107.2	10.94	167	7	2022-01-01	2025-12-31	1461	0
LUCNGAN	Tx_LUCNGAN.txt	106.5	21.38	15	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23707	0.001
LUCYEN	Tx_LUCYEN.txt	104.7	22.1	84	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	22280	0.062
LYSON	Tx_LYSON.txt	109.2	15.38	12	5	1985-01-01	2025-12-31	14975	0
MAICHAU	Tx_MAICHAU.txt	105	20.65	160	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
MAUSON	Tx_MAUSON.txt	107	21.85	800	2	2011-03-21	2025-12-31	5072	0.061
MDRAK	Tx_MDRAK.txt	108.8	12.73	419	6	1978-01-01	2025-12-31	17502	0.002
MINHDAI	Tx_MINHDAI.txt	105	21.17	100	2	1972-06-01	2025-12-31	19572	0
MOCCHAU	Tx_MOCCHAU.txt	104.7	20.83	958	1	1961-06-01	2025-12-31	23588	0
MOCHOA	Tx_MOCHOA.txt	105.9	10.78	3	7	1978-11-01	2025-12-31	17228	0
MONGCAI	Tx_MONGCAI.txt	108	21.52	7	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	18301	0.229
MUCANGCHAI	Tx_MUCANGCHAI.txt	104	21.87	955	2	1962-01-01	2025-12-31	23161	0.009
MUONGLA	Tx_MUONGLA.txt	104	21.52	250	1	1998-01-02	2023-10-09	7248	0.23
MUONGLAY	Tx_MUONGLAY.txt	103.2	22.07	243.2	1	2019-01-01	2020-12-31	731	0
MUONGTE	Tx_MUONGTE.txt	102.8	22.37	310	1	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
MYTHO	Tx_MYTHO.txt	106.4	10.35	2	7	1979-01-01	2025-12-31	16832	0.02
NAMDINH	Tx_NAMDINH.txt	106.2	20.4	3	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23711	0.001
NAMDONG	Tx_NAMDONG.txt	107.7	16.17	60	4	1974-01-01	2025-12-31	18870	0.006
NGANSON	Tx_NGANSON.txt	106	22.43	566	2	1985-01-01	2025-12-31	14973	0
NGASON	Tx_NGASON.txt	106	20.02	6	4	2022-02-01	2025-12-31	1430	0
NGHIALO	Tx_NGHIALO.txt	104.5	21.58	274.6	2	2019-01-01	2021-12-31	1096	0
NGUYENBINH	Tx_NGUYENBINH.txt	106	22.65	208	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23618	0.005
NHABE	Tx_NHABE.txt	106.7	10.7	3	7	2013-01-01	2025-12-31	4748	0
NHATRANG	Tx_NHATRANG.txt	109.2	12.22	5	5	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23376	0.015
NHOQUAN	Tx_NHOQUAN.txt	105.7	20.33	3	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
NHUXUAN	Tx_NHUXUAN.txt	105.6	19.63	10	4	1964-01-01	2025-12-31	22453	0.009
NINHBINH	Tx_NINHBINH.txt	106	20.23	2	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
P-CANGIO	Tx_P-CANGIO.txt	107	10.4	0	7	2019-01-01	2020-12-31	731	0
P-DONGVAN	Tx_P-DONGVAN.txt	105.3	23.25	1488	2	2022-01-01	2025-12-31	1461	0
P-NAMMUCTV	Tx_P-NAMMUCTV.txt	103.3	22.87	2217	1	2022-01-01	2025-12-31	1461	0
PHADIN	Tx_PHADIN.txt	103.5	21.57	1347	1	1966-01-01	2025-12-31	21453	0.021
PHANRANG	Tx_PHANRANG.txt	109	11.58	6	5	1993-01-01	2025-12-31	12053	0
PHANRI	Tx_PHANRI.txt	108.5	11.2	11	5	2014-05-06	2025-12-31	4258	0
PHANTHIET	Tx_PHANTHIET.txt	108.1	10.93	9	5	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	22525	0.051
PHIENGLANH	Tx_PHIENGLANH.txt	103.6	21.67	155.3	1	2019-01-01	2020-12-31	731	0
PHORANG	Tx_PHORANG.txt	104.5	22.23	98	2	1998-01-02	2025-12-31	9646	0.057
PHUHO	Tx_PHUHO.txt	105.2	21.45	36	2	1962-05-01	2025-12-31	22434	0.035
PHULIEN	Tx_PHULIEN.txt	106.6	20.8	113	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
PHULY	Tx_PHULY.txt	105.9	20.55	3	3	1998-01-01	2025-12-31	10216	0.001
PHUOCLONG	Tx_PHUOCLONG.txt	107	11.83	198	6	1978-01-01	2025-12-31	17532	0
PHUQUOC	Tx_PHUQUOC.txt	104	10.22	2	7	1979-01-01	2025-12-31	17126	0.002
PHUQUY	Tx_PHUQUY.txt	108.9	10.52	5	5	1979-06-01	2025-12-31	17016	0
PHUYEN	Tx_PHUYEN.txt	104.6	21.27	182	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23344	0.017
PLEIKU	Tx_PLEIKU.txt	108	13.97	779	6	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23376	0.015
QUANGHA	Tx_QUANGHA.txt	107.8	21.45	10	2	1980-12-01	2025-12-31	16467	0
QUANGNGAI	Tx_QUANGNGAI.txt	108.8	15.12	8	5	1976-01-01	2025-12-31	18263	0
QUYCHAU	Tx_QUYCHAU.txt	105.1	19.57	87	4	1962-04-01	2025-12-31	21671	0.069
QUYHOP	Tx_QUYHOP.txt	105.2	19.32	88	4	1968-02-01	2025-12-31	20820	0.016
QUYNHLUU	Tx_QUYNHLUU.txt	105.6	19.17	3	4	1962-01-01	2025-12-31	23330	0.002
QUYNHNHAI	Tx_QUYNHNHAI.txt	103.6	21.85	155	1	1961-02-01	2025-12-31	23430	0.012
QUYNHON	Tx_QUYNHON.txt	109.2	13.77	5	5	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23365	0.016
RACHGIA	Tx_RACHGIA.txt	105.1	10	2	7	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	22280	0.062
SAMSON	Tx_SAMSON.txt	105.9	19.75	4	4	1995-01-01	2025-12-31	11201	0.011
SAPA	Tx_SAPA.txt	103.8	22.35	1570	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23584	0.007
SINHO	Tx_SINHO.txt	103.2	22.37	1529	1	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23739	0
SOCTRANG	Tx_SOCTRANG.txt	106	9.6	3	7	1978-05-01	2025-12-31	17292	0.007
SONDONG	Tx_SONDONG.txt	106.8	21.33	59	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23648	0.004
SONGMA	Tx_SONGMA.txt	103.7	21.07	302	1	1963-01-01	2025-12-31	22979	0.001
SONGTUTAY	Tx_SONGTUTAY.txt	114.3	11.42	5	7	1998-01-01	2025-12-31	10212	0.001
SONHOA	Tx_SONHOA.txt	109	13.05	5	5	1976-08-01	2025-12-31	17928	0.007
SONLA	Tx_SONLA.txt	103.9	21.33	676	1	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
SONTAY	Tx_SONTAY.txt	105.5	21.13	16	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23617	0.005
TALAI	Tx_TALAI.txt	107.4	11.37	122	7	2014-05-30	2025-12-31	4234	0
TAMDAO	Tx_TAMDAO.txt	105.7	21.47	897	2	1962-01-01	2025-12-31	23376	0
TAMDUONG	Tx_TAMDUONG.txt	103.5	22.42	900	1	1974-01-01	2025-12-31	18992	0
TAMKY	Tx_TAMKY.txt	108.5	15.57	5	5	1979-01-01	2025-12-31	17167	0
TANSONNHAT	Tx_TANSONNHAT.txt	106.7	10.82	10	7	1998-01-01	2025-12-31	6930	0.322
TAYHIEU	Tx_TAYHIEU.txt	105.4	19.32	72	4	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23466	0.012
TAYNINH	Tx_TAYNINH.txt	106.1	11.33	10	7	1979-01-01	2025-12-31	17167	0
THAIBINH	Tx_THAIBINH.txt	106.3	20.45	3	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
THAINGUYEN	Tx_THAINGUYEN.txt	105.8	21.6	36	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
THANHHOA	Tx_THANHHOA.txt	105.8	19.75	5	4	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
THANUYEN	Tx_THANUYEN.txt	103.9	21.95	556	2	1961-02-01	2025-12-31	23710	0
THATKHE	Tx_THATKHE.txt	106.5	22.25	275	2	1971-01-01	2025-12-31	19792	0.015
THOCHU	Tx_THOCHU.txt	103.1	9.283	0	7	1998-01-01	2025-12-31	10207	0.002
THUDAUMOT	Tx_THUDAUMOT.txt	106.6	10.97	0	7	2014-05-20	2025-12-31	4244	0
TIENYEN	Tx_TIENYEN.txt	107.4	21.33	14	2	1971-01-01	2025-12-31	20089	0
TINHGIA	Tx_TINHGIA.txt	105.8	19.45	5	4	1964-01-01	2025-12-31	22452	0.009
TRAMY	Tx_TRAMY.txt	108.2	15.33	123	5	1978-01-01	2025-12-31	17531	0
TRANOC	Tx_TRANOC.txt	105.7	10.1	4	7	2010-05-27	2025-12-31	5075	0.109
TRIAN	Tx_TRIAN.txt	107	11.08	65	7	2006-05-01	2025-12-31	7167	0.003
TRUNGKHANH	Tx_TRUNGKHANH.txt	106.5	22.83	520	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23649	0.004
TRUONGSA	Tx_TRUONGSA.txt	111.9	8.65	2	7	1977-06-01	2025-12-31	17378	0.021
TUANGIAO	Tx_TUANGIAO.txt	103.4	22.58	570	1	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
TUONGDUONG	Tx_TUONGDUONG.txt	104.4	19.28	97	4	1961-01-07	2025-12-31	23615	0.005
TUYENHOA	Tx_TUYENHOA.txt	106	17.88	25	4	1961-03-01	2025-12-31	22936	0.032
TUYENQUANG	Tx_TUYENQUANG.txt	105.2	21.82	42	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
TUYHOA	Tx_TUYHOA.txt	109.3	13.08	12	5	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23376	0.015
UONGBI	Tx_UONGBI.txt	106.8	21.03	4	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23677	0.003
VANCHAN	Tx_VANCHAN.txt	104.5	21.58	257	2	1971-01-01	2025-12-31	20058	0.002
VANLY	Tx_VANLY.txt	106.3	20.12	3	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23710	0.001
VANYEN	Tx_VANYEN.txt	104.7	20.05	803	1	2022-01-01	2025-12-31	1461	0
VIETTRI	Tx_VIETTRI.txt	105.4	21.3	17	3	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
VINH	Tx_VINH.txt	105.7	18.67	6	4	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23740	0
VINHLONG	Tx_VINHLONG.txt	106	10.25	4	7	2014-05-20	2025-12-31	4244	0
VINHYEN	Tx_VINHYEN.txt	105.6	21.32	10	3	1962-01-01	2025-12-31	23376	0
VITHANH	Tx_VITHANH.txt	105.5	9.817	0	7	2014-05-20	2025-10-31	4183	0
VUNGTAU	Tx_VUNGTAU.txt	107.1	10.37	4	7	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	21873	0.079
XUANLOC	Tx_XUANLOC.txt	107.2	10.93	162	7	1998-01-02	2025-12-31	10011	0.021
YALY	Tx_YALY.txt	107.8	14.2	547	6	1998-01-02	2025-12-31	9401	0.081
YENBAI	Tx_YENBAI.txt	104.9	21.7	56	2	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23729	0.001
YENCHAU	Tx_YENCHAU.txt	104.3	21.05	59	1	1961-01-01	2025-12-31	23741	0
YENDINH	Tx_YENDINH.txt	105.7	19.98	9	4	1964-01-01	2025-12-31	22644	0

Threshold diagnostic — region × month

results/tables/threshold_diagnostic_region_month.csv · 84 rows × 11 cols

Diagnostic of the EHD threshold by region and month: compares the fixed min(Tx90p,35) rule against the max(Tx90p,35) variant (diagnostic only — never substituted into the product).

region	region_name	month	n_cells	tx90p_mean	thr_min_mean	thr_max_mean	frac_pctl_controlled	ehd_freq_min	ehd_freq_max	ehd_freq_ratio_min_over_max
1	R1 Tay Bac (Northwest)	1	51	24.45	24.45	35	1	0.0944	0	nan
1	R1 Tay Bac (Northwest)	2	51	28.16	28.16	35	1	0.0975	0.0009	108.3
1	R1 Tay Bac (Northwest)	3	51	31.2	31.19	35.01	0.978	0.1021	0.0088	11.6
1	R1 Tay Bac (Northwest)	4	51	32.66	32.56	35.1	0.878	0.1047	0.0306	3.42
1	R1 Tay Bac (Northwest)	5	51	32.07	32.02	35.05	0.938	0.1044	0.0213	4.9
1	R1 Tay Bac (Northwest)	6	51	30.08	30.08	35	1	0.0968	0.0032	30.25
1	R1 Tay Bac (Northwest)	7	51	30.18	30.18	35	1	0.1049	0.0012	87.42
1	R1 Tay Bac (Northwest)	8	51	29.63	29.63	35	1	0.0994	0.0001	994
1	R1 Tay Bac (Northwest)	9	51	29	29	35	1	0.1015	0.0001	1015
1	R1 Tay Bac (Northwest)	10	51	27.49	27.49	35	1	0.094	0	nan
1	R1 Tay Bac (Northwest)	11	51	26.17	26.17	35	1	0.0936	0	nan
1	R1 Tay Bac (Northwest)	12	51	23.91	23.91	35	1	0.0942	0	nan
2	R2 Dong Bac (Northeast)	1	105	22.16	22.16	35	1	0.0959	0	nan
2	R2 Dong Bac (Northeast)	2	105	25.71	25.71	35	1	0.1013	0	nan
2	R2 Dong Bac (Northeast)	3	105	27.97	27.97	35	1	0.0949	0.0006	158.2
2	R2 Dong Bac (Northeast)	4	105	30.78	30.78	35.01	0.99	0.1015	0.0064	15.86
2	R2 Dong Bac (Northeast)	5	105	32.24	32.22	35.02	0.98	0.1	0.0213	4.69
2	R2 Dong Bac (Northeast)	6	105	32.11	32.11	35.01	0.986	0.1021	0.0162	6.3
2	R2 Dong Bac (Northeast)	7	105	32.11	32.11	35	0.991	0.1041	0.0115	9.05
2	R2 Dong Bac (Northeast)	8	105	31.75	31.75	35	1	0.0999	0.0056	17.84
2	R2 Dong Bac (Northeast)	9	105	30.57	30.57	35	1	0.1004	0.0005	200.8
2	R2 Dong Bac (Northeast)	10	105	28.61	28.61	35	1	0.0949	0	nan
2	R2 Dong Bac (Northeast)	11	105	26.36	26.36	35	1	0.0928	0	nan
2	R2 Dong Bac (Northeast)	12	105	22.92	22.92	35	1	0.0931	0	nan
3	R3 DB Bac Bo (Red River Delta)	1	37	23.91	23.91	35	1	0.0992	0	nan
3	R3 DB Bac Bo (Red River Delta)	2	37	26.68	26.68	35	1	0.0999	0.0007	142.7
3	R3 DB Bac Bo (Red River Delta)	3	37	28.68	28.68	35	1	0.0944	0.0053	17.81
3	R3 DB Bac Bo (Red River Delta)	4	37	31.53	31.52	35.01	0.964	0.098	0.0217	4.52
3	R3 DB Bac Bo (Red River Delta)	5	37	33.78	33.68	35.1	0.808	0.1041	0.05	2.08
3	R3 DB Bac Bo (Red River Delta)	6	37	34.46	34.27	35.2	0.578	0.1253	0.066	1.9
3	R3 DB Bac Bo (Red River Delta)	7	37	33.87	33.79	35.08	0.812	0.1089	0.0444	2.45
3	R3 DB Bac Bo (Red River Delta)	8	37	32.81	32.81	35	1	0.0988	0.0088	11.23
3	R3 DB Bac Bo (Red River Delta)	9	37	31.51	31.51	35	1	0.102	0.0001	1020
3	R3 DB Bac Bo (Red River Delta)	10	37	29.62	29.62	35	1	0.0918	0	nan
3	R3 DB Bac Bo (Red River Delta)	11	37	28.07	28.07	35	1	0.0935	0	nan
3	R3 DB Bac Bo (Red River Delta)	12	37	24.95	24.95	35	1	0.0946	0	nan
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo (North Central)	1	88	24.89	24.89	35	1	0.099	0	nan
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo (North Central)	2	88	28.28	28.28	35	1	0.0998	0.0016	62.38
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo (North Central)	3	88	31.06	31.05	35.01	0.979	0.099	0.0174	5.69
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo (North Central)	4	88	33.79	33.47	35.31	0.708	0.1167	0.05	2.33
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo (North Central)	5	88	34.15	33.72	35.43	0.597	0.1368	0.0572	2.39
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo (North Central)	6	88	34.1	33.58	35.52	0.523	0.1629	0.0611	2.67
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo (North Central)	7	88	33.66	33.26	35.4	0.651	0.1396	0.0492	2.84
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo (North Central)	8	88	32.43	32.41	35.02	0.935	0.0986	0.0261	3.78
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo (North Central)	9	88	31.01	31.01	35	1	0.1004	0.0025	40.16
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo (North Central)	10	88	28.44	28.44	35	1	0.0919	0	nan
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo (North Central)	11	88	27.51	27.51	35	1	0.0971	0	nan
4	R4 Bac Trung Bo (North Central)	12	88	25.12	25.12	35	1	0.0952	0	nan
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo (South Central)	1	63	26.81	26.81	35	1	0.0955	0	nan
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo (South Central)	2	63	29.03	29.03	35	1	0.0948	0.0005	189.6
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo (South Central)	3	63	31.35	31.34	35.01	0.989	0.099	0.005	19.8
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo (South Central)	4	63	32.94	32.86	35.08	0.896	0.1055	0.0267	3.95
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo (South Central)	5	63	33.54	33.39	35.16	0.793	0.1199	0.0353	3.4
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo (South Central)	6	63	33.38	33.25	35.13	0.8	0.1259	0.0324	3.89
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo (South Central)	7	63	33.09	33.01	35.08	0.862	0.1066	0.0309	3.45
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo (South Central)	8	63	32.97	32.93	35.04	0.89	0.1034	0.0259	3.99
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo (South Central)	9	63	31.4	31.4	35	1	0.0993	0.0022	45.14
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo (South Central)	10	63	29.16	29.16	35	1	0.0907	0	nan
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo (South Central)	11	63	28.14	28.14	35	1	0.0995	0	nan
5	R5 Nam Trung Bo (South Central)	12	63	26.78	26.78	35	1	0.0955	0	nan
6	R6 Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands)	1	96	29.12	29.12	35	0.997	0.094	0.0018	52.22
6	R6 Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands)	2	96	31.68	31.57	35.11	0.872	0.1188	0.0222	5.35
6	R6 Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands)	3	96	33.43	33.03	35.4	0.659	0.1738	0.0437	3.98
6	R6 Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands)	4	96	33.59	33.12	35.47	0.643	0.1703	0.0484	3.52
6	R6 Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands)	5	96	31.93	31.81	35.12	0.859	0.1119	0.0238	4.7
6	R6 Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands)	6	96	30.06	30.06	35	0.999	0.0971	0.0016	60.69
6	R6 Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands)	7	96	29.43	29.43	35	1	0.0978	0.0011	88.91
6	R6 Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands)	8	96	29.19	29.19	35	1	0.095	0.0009	105.6
6	R6 Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands)	9	96	28.89	28.89	35	1	0.1031	0.0001	1031
6	R6 Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands)	10	96	28.53	28.53	35	1	0.0944	0	nan
6	R6 Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands)	11	96	28.69	28.69	35	1	0.1005	0.0008	125.6
6	R6 Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands)	12	96	28.31	28.31	35	1	0.0974	0.0004	243.5
7	R7 Nam Bo (South)	1	101	31.47	31.47	35	0.997	0.0955	0.0018	53.06
7	R7 Nam Bo (South)	2	101	32.64	32.61	35.04	0.931	0.103	0.0148	6.96
7	R7 Nam Bo (South)	3	101	34.02	33.79	35.23	0.674	0.1496	0.0441	3.39
7	R7 Nam Bo (South)	4	101	34.77	34.28	35.48	0.463	0.186	0.0645	2.88
7	R7 Nam Bo (South)	5	101	33.7	33.56	35.14	0.788	0.1147	0.0384	2.99
7	R7 Nam Bo (South)	6	101	31.79	31.79	35	1	0.097	0.0017	57.06
7	R7 Nam Bo (South)	7	101	31.28	31.28	35	1	0.0994	0	nan
7	R7 Nam Bo (South)	8	101	31.24	31.24	35	1	0.0992	0	nan
7	R7 Nam Bo (South)	9	101	31.02	31.02	35	1	0.1013	0	nan
7	R7 Nam Bo (South)	10	101	30.9	30.9	35	1	0.0986	0	nan
7	R7 Nam Bo (South)	11	101	31	31	35	1	0.0974	0.0001	974
7	R7 Nam Bo (South)	12	101	31.11	31.11	35	1	0.0979	0.0003	326.3

v2 zoo — binary scores by model × cutoff × block

results/tables/v2_cv_scores_by_model_block.csv · 126 rows × 18 cols

126 rows = 7 sklearn families × 3 cascade cutoffs (1.0/0.90/0.99) × 6 blocks. Full binary contingency inventory (POD/POFD/FAR/CSI/ETS/HSS/Peirce/EDI/SEDI/freq_bias), LOYO-pooled out-of-sample. CNN/ANN are NOT here (they live in v6).

family	cutoff	block	n	base_rate	brier	bss_vs_clim	auc	POD	POFD	FAR	CSI	ETS	HSS	Peirce	EDI	SEDI	freq_bias
hgb	0.9	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1593	0.351	0.844	0.768	0.248	0.298	0.579	0.347	0.515	0.521	0.682	0.678	1.095
hgb	0.99	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1597	0.349	0.843	0.761	0.243	0.296	0.576	0.345	0.513	0.518	0.676	0.676	1.081
hgb	1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1597	0.349	0.843	0.76	0.241	0.295	0.577	0.346	0.514	0.519	0.677	0.676	1.079
hgb_sev	0.9	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1614	0.342	0.839	0.765	0.248	0.299	0.576	0.343	0.511	0.517	0.677	0.674	1.091
hgb_sev	0.99	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1631	0.335	0.835	0.759	0.247	0.3	0.573	0.34	0.507	0.512	0.671	0.669	1.085
hgb_sev	1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1633	0.334	0.835	0.758	0.246	0.3	0.572	0.339	0.507	0.512	0.67	0.669	1.082
logistic	0.9	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1942	0.208	0.756	0.748	0.388	0.406	0.495	0.211	0.349	0.36	0.53	0.497	1.26
logistic	0.99	W1	1117165	0.431	0.205	0.164	0.729	0.653	0.307	0.383	0.465	0.208	0.344	0.346	0.47	0.477	1.058
logistic	1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.2055	0.162	0.728	0.651	0.306	0.382	0.464	0.207	0.343	0.346	0.469	0.477	1.055
mlp	0.9	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1633	0.334	0.836	0.757	0.255	0.308	0.566	0.33	0.496	0.502	0.661	0.658	1.094
mlp	0.99	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1627	0.336	0.836	0.759	0.251	0.304	0.57	0.335	0.502	0.508	0.667	0.664	1.09
mlp	1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1617	0.341	0.839	0.76	0.252	0.305	0.57	0.335	0.502	0.508	0.668	0.665	1.093
mlp_sev	0.9	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1624	0.338	0.837	0.762	0.252	0.304	0.572	0.337	0.505	0.51	0.671	0.667	1.095
mlp_sev	0.99	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1624	0.338	0.837	0.759	0.246	0.299	0.573	0.341	0.508	0.513	0.672	0.671	1.084
mlp_sev	1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1614	0.342	0.839	0.766	0.248	0.299	0.577	0.344	0.512	0.518	0.679	0.675	1.094
rf	0.9	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1728	0.295	0.817	0.751	0.279	0.329	0.549	0.303	0.466	0.472	0.634	0.626	1.119
rf	0.99	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1751	0.286	0.811	0.745	0.279	0.331	0.545	0.298	0.46	0.466	0.625	0.619	1.113
rf	1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1752	0.286	0.811	0.745	0.28	0.331	0.544	0.298	0.459	0.465	0.625	0.619	1.115
ridge_sev	0.9	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1947	0.206	0.755	0.748	0.384	0.404	0.497	0.215	0.353	0.364	0.535	0.502	1.254
ridge_sev	0.99	W1	1117165	0.431	0.2052	0.163	0.729	0.66	0.315	0.387	0.466	0.206	0.341	0.344	0.47	0.475	1.075
ridge_sev	1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.2062	0.159	0.727	0.662	0.321	0.39	0.465	0.203	0.337	0.341	0.467	0.47	1.085
hgb	0.9	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1975	0.108	0.706	0.652	0.356	0.525	0.379	0.156	0.27	0.295	0.414	0.412	1.372
hgb	0.99	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1966	0.112	0.708	0.644	0.348	0.522	0.378	0.157	0.272	0.296	0.412	0.413	1.349
hgb	1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1966	0.112	0.708	0.642	0.345	0.521	0.378	0.158	0.273	0.296	0.411	0.413	1.341
hgb_sev	0.9	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1987	0.102	0.692	0.636	0.348	0.526	0.373	0.152	0.265	0.287	0.399	0.402	1.34
hgb_sev	0.99	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1992	0.1	0.69	0.635	0.346	0.525	0.373	0.153	0.266	0.289	0.4	0.403	1.335
hgb_sev	1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1994	0.099	0.689	0.637	0.35	0.526	0.373	0.152	0.265	0.288	0.4	0.402	1.344
logistic	0.9	W2	1119870	0.331	0.2047	0.076	0.663	0.672	0.451	0.576	0.352	0.107	0.193	0.221	0.334	0.315	1.585
logistic	0.99	W2	1119870	0.331	0.2069	0.065	0.651	0.6	0.382	0.563	0.338	0.111	0.199	0.218	0.306	0.309	1.374
logistic	1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.2071	0.064	0.651	0.602	0.385	0.564	0.339	0.11	0.199	0.218	0.307	0.308	1.38
mlp	0.9	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1971	0.11	0.699	0.652	0.37	0.534	0.373	0.147	0.256	0.282	0.399	0.395	1.4
mlp	0.99	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1966	0.112	0.701	0.655	0.364	0.529	0.377	0.153	0.265	0.291	0.41	0.406	1.391
mlp	1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.195	0.119	0.707	0.659	0.362	0.527	0.38	0.156	0.27	0.297	0.417	0.414	1.392
mlp_sev	0.9	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1986	0.103	0.692	0.646	0.365	0.533	0.371	0.147	0.256	0.281	0.395	0.393	1.384
mlp_sev	0.99	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1988	0.102	0.691	0.638	0.354	0.529	0.372	0.15	0.261	0.284	0.396	0.397	1.353
mlp_sev	1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1993	0.1	0.688	0.651	0.367	0.533	0.374	0.149	0.259	0.284	0.401	0.398	1.394
rf	0.9	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1996	0.098	0.697	0.666	0.381	0.537	0.376	0.147	0.256	0.284	0.407	0.398	1.437
rf	0.99	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1989	0.102	0.698	0.646	0.363	0.532	0.373	0.149	0.259	0.283	0.398	0.397	1.38
rf	1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1989	0.101	0.698	0.648	0.364	0.532	0.373	0.149	0.259	0.284	0.4	0.397	1.385
ridge_sev	0.9	W2	1119870	0.331	0.2051	0.073	0.658	0.66	0.438	0.573	0.35	0.108	0.195	0.222	0.331	0.315	1.547
ridge_sev	0.99	W2	1119870	0.331	0.2078	0.061	0.644	0.611	0.385	0.56	0.344	0.115	0.206	0.226	0.319	0.32	1.391
ridge_sev	1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.2081	0.06	0.643	0.613	0.388	0.561	0.344	0.114	0.205	0.225	0.319	0.319	1.399
hgb	0.9	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2164	0.023	0.624	0.578	0.406	0.587	0.317	0.084	0.155	0.171	0.242	0.244	1.398
hgb	0.99	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2152	0.028	0.627	0.581	0.406	0.585	0.319	0.086	0.159	0.175	0.248	0.25	1.402
hgb	1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2152	0.028	0.626	0.575	0.403	0.586	0.317	0.085	0.157	0.172	0.244	0.246	1.388
hgb_sev	0.9	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2147	0.031	0.608	0.568	0.401	0.588	0.314	0.083	0.153	0.167	0.236	0.239	1.378
hgb_sev	0.99	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2149	0.03	0.606	0.572	0.404	0.588	0.315	0.082	0.152	0.167	0.236	0.239	1.388
hgb_sev	1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2152	0.028	0.605	0.573	0.403	0.587	0.316	0.084	0.155	0.17	0.24	0.243	1.385
logistic	0.9	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2148	0.03	0.602	0.584	0.446	0.607	0.307	0.066	0.123	0.138	0.2	0.198	1.485
logistic	0.99	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2154	0.028	0.596	0.53	0.386	0.595	0.298	0.072	0.133	0.144	0.2	0.206	1.309
logistic	1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2156	0.027	0.594	0.532	0.389	0.596	0.298	0.071	0.133	0.144	0.199	0.206	1.317
mlp	0.9	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2114	0.046	0.628	0.6	0.421	0.586	0.324	0.088	0.161	0.179	0.258	0.256	1.45
mlp	0.99	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2123	0.042	0.622	0.585	0.411	0.586	0.32	0.086	0.158	0.174	0.248	0.249	1.415
mlp	1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.211	0.047	0.628	0.592	0.415	0.586	0.322	0.086	0.159	0.176	0.252	0.251	1.43
mlp_sev	0.9	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2143	0.033	0.61	0.583	0.42	0.592	0.316	0.08	0.147	0.164	0.234	0.233	1.431
mlp_sev	0.99	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2158	0.026	0.6	0.574	0.422	0.598	0.31	0.074	0.137	0.152	0.217	0.217	1.425
mlp_sev	1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2146	0.031	0.604	0.584	0.42	0.592	0.316	0.08	0.148	0.164	0.234	0.234	1.431
rf	0.9	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2171	0.02	0.625	0.593	0.418	0.587	0.322	0.086	0.158	0.176	0.252	0.25	1.437
rf	0.99	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2163	0.023	0.626	0.58	0.404	0.585	0.319	0.087	0.16	0.176	0.249	0.25	1.396
rf	1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2163	0.024	0.625	0.577	0.4	0.583	0.319	0.088	0.161	0.177	0.25	0.252	1.386
ridge_sev	0.9	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2149	0.03	0.597	0.537	0.388	0.593	0.301	0.074	0.138	0.149	0.207	0.213	1.321
ridge_sev	0.99	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2157	0.026	0.585	0.514	0.365	0.589	0.296	0.075	0.14	0.149	0.204	0.213	1.251
ridge_sev	1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2159	0.025	0.583	0.533	0.387	0.594	0.299	0.073	0.135	0.146	0.203	0.209	1.313
hgb	0.9	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2211	0.002	0.601	0.552	0.411	0.601	0.301	0.069	0.128	0.141	0.199	0.202	1.382
hgb	0.99	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2205	0.004	0.602	0.548	0.408	0.601	0.3	0.068	0.128	0.14	0.197	0.2	1.371
hgb	1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2204	0.005	0.603	0.55	0.407	0.599	0.302	0.07	0.13	0.143	0.201	0.204	1.373
hgb_sev	0.9	W4	1119870	0.331	0.218	0.016	0.588	0.529	0.39	0.598	0.296	0.069	0.129	0.139	0.193	0.199	1.317
hgb_sev	0.99	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2184	0.014	0.584	0.54	0.4	0.599	0.299	0.069	0.129	0.14	0.196	0.201	1.348
hgb_sev	1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2185	0.013	0.584	0.533	0.396	0.6	0.296	0.068	0.127	0.137	0.191	0.197	1.332
logistic	0.9	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2175	0.018	0.582	0.585	0.47	0.619	0.3	0.054	0.102	0.115	0.17	0.166	1.534
logistic	0.99	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2175	0.018	0.578	0.546	0.424	0.611	0.294	0.058	0.11	0.122	0.172	0.174	1.403
logistic	1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2176	0.018	0.578	0.547	0.424	0.611	0.294	0.059	0.111	0.123	0.174	0.176	1.404
mlp	0.9	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2146	0.031	0.607	0.591	0.442	0.602	0.312	0.071	0.133	0.15	0.217	0.214	1.484
mlp	0.99	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2149	0.03	0.604	0.568	0.425	0.602	0.305	0.069	0.128	0.142	0.203	0.204	1.427
mlp	1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2147	0.03	0.604	0.563	0.419	0.6	0.305	0.07	0.131	0.145	0.205	0.207	1.409
mlp_sev	0.9	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2176	0.017	0.585	0.558	0.428	0.608	0.299	0.062	0.118	0.13	0.185	0.187	1.423
mlp_sev	0.99	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2177	0.017	0.583	0.553	0.423	0.607	0.298	0.063	0.118	0.13	0.185	0.187	1.407
mlp_sev	1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2176	0.017	0.581	0.558	0.427	0.607	0.299	0.063	0.118	0.131	0.186	0.188	1.421
rf	0.9	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2226	-0.005	0.601	0.557	0.419	0.603	0.302	0.067	0.125	0.138	0.196	0.198	1.404
rf	0.99	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2219	-0.002	0.602	0.547	0.407	0.601	0.3	0.068	0.128	0.14	0.197	0.201	1.368
rf	1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2219	-0.002	0.602	0.541	0.401	0.6	0.299	0.069	0.129	0.14	0.196	0.201	1.35
ridge_sev	0.9	W4	1119870	0.331	0.218	0.015	0.573	0.62	0.501	0.621	0.308	0.054	0.102	0.118	0.181	0.17	1.633
ridge_sev	0.99	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2182	0.015	0.564	0.562	0.444	0.615	0.296	0.056	0.106	0.118	0.17	0.169	1.46
ridge_sev	1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2183	0.014	0.564	0.552	0.439	0.616	0.293	0.054	0.102	0.113	0.162	0.163	1.438
hgb	0.9	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2231	-0.008	0.59	0.535	0.418	0.613	0.29	0.056	0.106	0.117	0.164	0.168	1.381
hgb	0.99	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2227	-0.006	0.59	0.532	0.414	0.611	0.29	0.057	0.108	0.118	0.166	0.17	1.369
hgb	1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2225	-0.005	0.59	0.531	0.411	0.61	0.29	0.058	0.11	0.12	0.168	0.172	1.363
hgb_sev	0.9	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2198	0.007	0.574	0.534	0.417	0.612	0.29	0.056	0.107	0.117	0.164	0.168	1.378
hgb_sev	0.99	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2199	0.007	0.572	0.542	0.427	0.614	0.291	0.055	0.104	0.115	0.163	0.165	1.406
hgb_sev	1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2199	0.007	0.572	0.542	0.425	0.613	0.292	0.056	0.106	0.117	0.166	0.168	1.401
logistic	0.9	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2187	0.012	0.567	0.519	0.414	0.617	0.283	0.051	0.097	0.106	0.148	0.152	1.356
logistic	0.99	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2181	0.015	0.567	0.511	0.408	0.618	0.28	0.05	0.094	0.103	0.143	0.148	1.336
logistic	1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2182	0.014	0.567	0.508	0.404	0.616	0.28	0.051	0.097	0.104	0.145	0.15	1.324
mlp	0.9	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2179	0.016	0.582	0.567	0.458	0.62	0.295	0.051	0.097	0.109	0.159	0.157	1.493
mlp	0.99	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2161	0.024	0.59	0.575	0.456	0.616	0.299	0.056	0.105	0.119	0.173	0.17	1.497
mlp	1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2163	0.023	0.588	0.563	0.454	0.62	0.293	0.051	0.097	0.109	0.157	0.156	1.481
mlp_sev	0.9	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2187	0.012	0.574	0.55	0.43	0.612	0.294	0.058	0.109	0.12	0.171	0.173	1.42
mlp_sev	0.99	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2183	0.014	0.573	0.555	0.436	0.614	0.295	0.057	0.107	0.119	0.17	0.171	1.436
mlp_sev	1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2194	0.009	0.567	0.538	0.43	0.618	0.288	0.052	0.098	0.108	0.153	0.155	1.408
rf	0.9	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2252	-0.017	0.589	0.549	0.432	0.614	0.293	0.056	0.106	0.118	0.167	0.169	1.422
rf	0.99	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2247	-0.015	0.59	0.533	0.415	0.612	0.29	0.057	0.108	0.118	0.166	0.17	1.372
rf	1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2246	-0.015	0.59	0.539	0.421	0.612	0.291	0.057	0.107	0.118	0.166	0.169	1.39
ridge_sev	0.9	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2192	0.01	0.555	0.526	0.429	0.622	0.282	0.046	0.088	0.097	0.137	0.14	1.394
ridge_sev	0.99	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2188	0.012	0.551	0.531	0.426	0.619	0.285	0.05	0.096	0.105	0.148	0.151	1.391
ridge_sev	1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2189	0.011	0.55	0.53	0.424	0.618	0.285	0.05	0.096	0.105	0.149	0.152	1.388
hgb	0.9	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2256	-0.019	0.578	0.528	0.422	0.618	0.285	0.051	0.096	0.105	0.149	0.152	1.382
hgb	0.99	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2251	-0.017	0.577	0.522	0.42	0.619	0.282	0.049	0.094	0.102	0.144	0.147	1.371
hgb	1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2253	-0.018	0.576	0.517	0.416	0.62	0.28	0.048	0.092	0.1	0.14	0.144	1.359
hgb_sev	0.9	W6	1119870	0.331	0.221	0.002	0.566	0.534	0.428	0.618	0.286	0.051	0.096	0.106	0.15	0.152	1.399
hgb_sev	0.99	W6	1119870	0.331	0.221	0.002	0.563	0.544	0.438	0.619	0.289	0.05	0.096	0.106	0.151	0.153	1.431
hgb_sev	1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2209	0.002	0.563	0.545	0.44	0.62	0.288	0.049	0.094	0.105	0.149	0.15	1.435
logistic	0.9	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2194	0.009	0.56	0.54	0.452	0.629	0.282	0.041	0.079	0.088	0.126	0.127	1.454
logistic	0.99	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2191	0.01	0.558	0.499	0.405	0.621	0.274	0.045	0.087	0.094	0.13	0.135	1.319
logistic	1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2192	0.01	0.558	0.503	0.412	0.623	0.274	0.044	0.084	0.091	0.127	0.131	1.335
mlp	0.9	W6	1119870	0.331	0.219	0.011	0.574	0.575	0.472	0.624	0.294	0.048	0.091	0.103	0.152	0.149	1.529
mlp	0.99	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2178	0.016	0.577	0.581	0.475	0.623	0.296	0.049	0.093	0.106	0.156	0.152	1.542
mlp	1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2182	0.014	0.575	0.574	0.472	0.624	0.294	0.047	0.09	0.102	0.15	0.147	1.529
mlp_sev	0.9	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2199	0.007	0.565	0.549	0.457	0.627	0.285	0.043	0.082	0.092	0.132	0.132	1.474
mlp_sev	0.99	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2195	0.009	0.56	0.558	0.461	0.626	0.289	0.045	0.086	0.096	0.14	0.139	1.49
mlp_sev	1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2196	0.008	0.56	0.559	0.462	0.626	0.289	0.045	0.086	0.097	0.141	0.139	1.494
rf	0.9	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2276	-0.028	0.58	0.52	0.416	0.618	0.282	0.05	0.095	0.103	0.145	0.149	1.361
rf	0.99	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2274	-0.027	0.579	0.509	0.406	0.617	0.279	0.05	0.095	0.103	0.143	0.148	1.329
rf	1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2273	-0.027	0.58	0.508	0.405	0.617	0.279	0.05	0.095	0.103	0.144	0.149	1.326
ridge_sev	0.9	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2197	0.008	0.552	0.527	0.435	0.626	0.28	0.043	0.083	0.092	0.13	0.132	1.407
ridge_sev	0.99	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2195	0.009	0.544	0.507	0.421	0.627	0.274	0.041	0.078	0.085	0.12	0.123	1.358
ridge_sev	1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2195	0.009	0.543	0.506	0.421	0.628	0.273	0.04	0.077	0.084	0.118	0.121	1.358

v2 ensemble vs members

results/tables/v2_scores_with_ensemble.csv · 54 rows × 17 cols

The 7 zoo members (cutoff 1.0) plus the two ensembles: ens_mean (unweighted mean) and ens_stack (leakage-safe LOYO logistic stacker). The ensemble is built from 9 members (incl. CNN/ANN) even though only the 7 are scored as standalone rows here — see the audit F1 caveat.

model	block	n	base_rate	brier	bss_vs_clim	auc	POD	POFD	FAR	CSI	ETS	HSS	Peirce	EDI	SEDI	freq_bias
ens_mean	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1603	0.346	0.845	0.763	0.235	0.289	0.582	0.354	0.523	0.527	0.685	0.685	1.073
ens_stack	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1493	0.391	0.864	0.78	0.222	0.273	0.603	0.382	0.552	0.557	0.716	0.715	1.073
hgb	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1597	0.349	0.843	0.76	0.241	0.295	0.577	0.346	0.514	0.519	0.677	0.676	1.079
hgb_sev	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1633	0.334	0.835	0.758	0.246	0.3	0.572	0.339	0.507	0.512	0.67	0.669	1.082
logistic	W1	1117165	0.431	0.2055	0.162	0.728	0.651	0.306	0.382	0.464	0.207	0.343	0.346	0.469	0.477	1.055
mlp	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1617	0.341	0.839	0.76	0.252	0.305	0.57	0.335	0.502	0.508	0.668	0.665	1.093
mlp_sev	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1614	0.342	0.839	0.766	0.248	0.299	0.577	0.344	0.512	0.518	0.679	0.675	1.094
rf	W1	1117165	0.431	0.1752	0.286	0.811	0.745	0.28	0.331	0.544	0.298	0.459	0.465	0.625	0.619	1.115
ridge_sev	W1	1117165	0.431	0.2062	0.159	0.727	0.662	0.321	0.39	0.465	0.203	0.337	0.341	0.467	0.47	1.085
ens_mean	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1939	0.124	0.713	0.674	0.366	0.523	0.388	0.162	0.279	0.308	0.437	0.429	1.414
ens_stack	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1906	0.139	0.725	0.671	0.343	0.509	0.396	0.176	0.3	0.328	0.456	0.454	1.365
hgb	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1966	0.112	0.708	0.642	0.345	0.521	0.378	0.158	0.273	0.296	0.411	0.413	1.341
hgb_sev	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1994	0.099	0.689	0.637	0.35	0.526	0.373	0.152	0.265	0.288	0.4	0.402	1.344
logistic	W2	1119870	0.331	0.2071	0.064	0.651	0.602	0.385	0.564	0.339	0.11	0.199	0.218	0.307	0.308	1.38
mlp	W2	1119870	0.331	0.195	0.119	0.707	0.659	0.362	0.527	0.38	0.156	0.27	0.297	0.417	0.414	1.392
mlp_sev	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1993	0.1	0.688	0.651	0.367	0.533	0.374	0.149	0.259	0.284	0.401	0.398	1.394
rf	W2	1119870	0.331	0.1989	0.101	0.698	0.648	0.364	0.532	0.373	0.149	0.259	0.284	0.4	0.397	1.385
ridge_sev	W2	1119870	0.331	0.2081	0.06	0.643	0.613	0.388	0.561	0.344	0.114	0.205	0.225	0.319	0.319	1.399
ens_mean	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2093	0.055	0.636	0.602	0.409	0.578	0.33	0.096	0.175	0.194	0.277	0.276	1.427
ens_stack	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2084	0.059	0.642	0.602	0.397	0.571	0.334	0.103	0.186	0.205	0.291	0.291	1.403
hgb	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2152	0.028	0.626	0.575	0.403	0.586	0.317	0.085	0.157	0.172	0.244	0.246	1.388
hgb_sev	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2152	0.028	0.605	0.573	0.403	0.587	0.316	0.084	0.155	0.17	0.24	0.243	1.385
logistic	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2156	0.027	0.594	0.532	0.389	0.596	0.298	0.071	0.133	0.144	0.199	0.206	1.317
mlp	W3	1119870	0.331	0.211	0.047	0.628	0.592	0.415	0.586	0.322	0.086	0.159	0.176	0.252	0.251	1.43
mlp_sev	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2146	0.031	0.604	0.584	0.42	0.592	0.316	0.08	0.148	0.164	0.234	0.234	1.431
rf	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2163	0.024	0.625	0.577	0.4	0.583	0.319	0.088	0.161	0.177	0.25	0.252	1.386
ridge_sev	W3	1119870	0.331	0.2159	0.025	0.583	0.533	0.387	0.594	0.299	0.073	0.135	0.146	0.203	0.209	1.313
ens_mean	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2128	0.039	0.613	0.596	0.433	0.595	0.318	0.079	0.146	0.163	0.236	0.233	1.47
ens_stack	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2124	0.041	0.616	0.602	0.427	0.589	0.323	0.085	0.156	0.175	0.252	0.249	1.465
hgb	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2204	0.005	0.603	0.55	0.407	0.599	0.302	0.07	0.13	0.143	0.201	0.204	1.373
hgb_sev	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2185	0.013	0.584	0.533	0.396	0.6	0.296	0.068	0.127	0.137	0.191	0.197	1.332
logistic	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2176	0.018	0.578	0.547	0.424	0.611	0.294	0.059	0.111	0.123	0.174	0.176	1.404
mlp	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2147	0.03	0.604	0.563	0.419	0.6	0.305	0.07	0.131	0.145	0.205	0.207	1.409
mlp_sev	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2176	0.017	0.581	0.558	0.427	0.607	0.299	0.063	0.118	0.131	0.186	0.188	1.421
rf	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2219	-0.002	0.602	0.541	0.401	0.6	0.299	0.069	0.129	0.14	0.196	0.201	1.35
ridge_sev	W4	1119870	0.331	0.2183	0.014	0.564	0.552	0.439	0.616	0.293	0.054	0.102	0.113	0.162	0.163	1.438
ens_mean	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2147	0.03	0.599	0.573	0.436	0.606	0.304	0.065	0.123	0.137	0.197	0.196	1.454
ens_stack	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2151	0.029	0.596	0.587	0.446	0.606	0.309	0.067	0.126	0.142	0.206	0.203	1.489
hgb	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2225	-0.005	0.59	0.531	0.411	0.61	0.29	0.058	0.11	0.12	0.168	0.172	1.363
hgb_sev	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2199	0.007	0.572	0.542	0.425	0.613	0.292	0.056	0.106	0.117	0.166	0.168	1.401
logistic	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2182	0.014	0.567	0.508	0.404	0.616	0.28	0.051	0.097	0.104	0.145	0.15	1.324
mlp	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2163	0.023	0.588	0.563	0.454	0.62	0.293	0.051	0.097	0.109	0.157	0.156	1.481
mlp_sev	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2194	0.009	0.567	0.538	0.43	0.618	0.288	0.052	0.098	0.108	0.153	0.155	1.408
rf	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2246	-0.015	0.59	0.539	0.421	0.612	0.291	0.057	0.107	0.118	0.166	0.169	1.39
ridge_sev	W5	1119870	0.331	0.2189	0.011	0.55	0.53	0.424	0.618	0.285	0.05	0.096	0.105	0.149	0.152	1.388
ens_mean	W6	1119870	0.331	0.216	0.024	0.586	0.555	0.433	0.612	0.296	0.058	0.11	0.122	0.174	0.175	1.431
ens_stack	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2165	0.022	0.581	0.581	0.462	0.617	0.3	0.055	0.105	0.118	0.174	0.17	1.516
hgb	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2253	-0.018	0.576	0.517	0.416	0.62	0.28	0.048	0.092	0.1	0.14	0.144	1.359
hgb_sev	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2209	0.002	0.563	0.545	0.44	0.62	0.288	0.049	0.094	0.105	0.149	0.15	1.435
logistic	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2192	0.01	0.558	0.503	0.412	0.623	0.274	0.044	0.084	0.091	0.127	0.131	1.335
mlp	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2182	0.014	0.575	0.574	0.472	0.624	0.294	0.047	0.09	0.102	0.15	0.147	1.529
mlp_sev	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2196	0.008	0.56	0.559	0.462	0.626	0.289	0.045	0.086	0.097	0.141	0.139	1.494
rf	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2273	-0.027	0.58	0.508	0.405	0.617	0.279	0.05	0.095	0.103	0.144	0.149	1.326
ridge_sev	W6	1119870	0.331	0.2195	0.009	0.543	0.506	0.421	0.628	0.273	0.04	0.077	0.084	0.118	0.121	1.358

§6 vote — leave-one-member-out contribution

results/tables/v6_member_contribution.csv · 138 rows × 4 cols

Effect on the ensemble of dropping each member (leave-one-member-out). Shows the vote is highly redundant (any single drop moves Peirce by ≲0.002); the CNN is the largest positive contributor.

member	block	dPeirce	dSEDI
logistic_c1	W1	-0.0024	-0.0024
logistic_c0.9	W1	-0.0018	-0.0018
logistic_c0.99	W1	-0.0023	-0.0024
hgb_c1	W1	0.0018	0.0019
hgb_c0.9	W1	0.0021	0.0023
hgb_c0.99	W1	0.0018	0.0019
rf_c1	W1	-0.002	-0.0021
rf_c0.9	W1	-0.0014	-0.0014
rf_c0.99	W1	-0.0019	-0.0019
mlp_c1	W1	0.0016	0.0017
mlp_c0.9	W1	0.0012	0.0013
mlp_c0.99	W1	0.0015	0.0017
ridge_sev_c1	W1	-0.0024	-0.0024
ridge_sev_c0.9	W1	-0.0017	-0.0018
ridge_sev_c0.99	W1	-0.0023	-0.0023
hgb_sev_c1	W1	0.0013	0.0014
hgb_sev_c0.9	W1	0.0019	0.002
hgb_sev_c0.99	W1	0.0014	0.0015
mlp_sev_c1	W1	0.0023	0.0025
mlp_sev_c0.9	W1	0.0018	0.002
mlp_sev_c0.99	W1	0.0021	0.0023
cnn_c1	W1	0.0039	0.0042
ann_torch_c1	W1	-0.0004	-0.0004
logistic_c1	W2	-0.001	-0.0011
logistic_c0.9	W2	-0.0009	-0.0014
logistic_c0.99	W2	-0.0009	-0.0013
hgb_c1	W2	0.0015	0.0021
hgb_c0.9	W2	0.0016	0.002
hgb_c0.99	W2	0.0014	0.002
rf_c1	W2	-0.0005	-0.0005
rf_c0.9	W2	0	0
rf_c0.99	W2	-0.0004	-0.0004
mlp_c1	W2	0.001	0.0015
mlp_c0.9	W2	0.0006	0.0011
mlp_c0.99	W2	0.001	0.0014
ridge_sev_c1	W2	-0.0012	-0.0016
ridge_sev_c0.9	W2	-0.0013	-0.0018
ridge_sev_c0.99	W2	-0.0012	-0.0014
hgb_sev_c1	W2	0.0007	0.0011
hgb_sev_c0.9	W2	0.0008	0.0012
hgb_sev_c0.99	W2	0.0007	0.0011
mlp_sev_c1	W2	0.0009	0.0014
mlp_sev_c0.9	W2	0.0006	0.001
mlp_sev_c0.99	W2	0.0008	0.0012
cnn_c1	W2	0.0029	0.004
ann_torch_c1	W2	-0.0003	-0.0007
logistic_c1	W3	-0	0
logistic_c0.9	W3	0.0001	0.0001
logistic_c0.99	W3	-0	0
hgb_c1	W3	0.0003	0.0005
hgb_c0.9	W3	0.0001	0.0002
hgb_c0.99	W3	0.0003	0.0004
rf_c1	W3	-0.0002	-0.0003
rf_c0.9	W3	0	0.0001
rf_c0.99	W3	-0.0002	-0.0003
mlp_c1	W3	0.0007	0.0011
mlp_c0.9	W3	0.0012	0.0016
mlp_c0.99	W3	0.0004	0.0007
ridge_sev_c1	W3	-0.0007	-0.001
ridge_sev_c0.9	W3	-0.0008	-0.0011
ridge_sev_c0.99	W3	-0.0008	-0.001
hgb_sev_c1	W3	-0.0001	-0
hgb_sev_c0.9	W3	-0.0002	-0.0003
hgb_sev_c0.99	W3	-0.0002	-0.0003
mlp_sev_c1	W3	0.0001	0.0002
mlp_sev_c0.9	W3	0.0001	0.0002
mlp_sev_c0.99	W3	-0.0003	-0.0004
cnn_c1	W3	0.0024	0.0034
ann_torch_c1	W3	0.0001	0.0001
logistic_c1	W4	0.0001	0.0001
logistic_c0.9	W4	0.0004	0.0005
logistic_c0.99	W4	0	0.0001
hgb_c1	W4	-0.0001	-0.0002
hgb_c0.9	W4	0	0
hgb_c0.99	W4	-0.0002	-0.0003
rf_c1	W4	-0.0002	-0.0003
rf_c0.9	W4	-0.0004	-0.0006
rf_c0.99	W4	-0.0002	-0.0002
mlp_c1	W4	-0.0002	-0.0002
mlp_c0.9	W4	0.0006	0.0009
mlp_c0.99	W4	0.0003	0.0004
ridge_sev_c1	W4	-0.0004	-0.0006
ridge_sev_c0.9	W4	-0.0001	-0.0001
ridge_sev_c0.99	W4	-0.0002	-0.0003
hgb_sev_c1	W4	0.0001	0.0001
hgb_sev_c0.9	W4	0	0.0001
hgb_sev_c0.99	W4	0.0003	0.0004
mlp_sev_c1	W4	-0.0002	-0.0002
mlp_sev_c0.9	W4	-0.0003	-0.0003
mlp_sev_c0.99	W4	-0.0004	-0.0005
cnn_c1	W4	0.0015	0.0022
ann_torch_c1	W4	0.0002	0.0002
logistic_c1	W5	0.0004	0.0006
logistic_c0.9	W5	0.0009	0.0011
logistic_c0.99	W5	0.0004	0.0005
hgb_c1	W5	-0.0004	-0.0007
hgb_c0.9	W5	-0.0004	-0.0005
hgb_c0.99	W5	-0.0005	-0.0008
rf_c1	W5	-0.0008	-0.0012
rf_c0.9	W5	-0.0007	-0.0011
rf_c0.99	W5	-0.0007	-0.0012
mlp_c1	W5	-0.0003	-0.0003
mlp_c0.9	W5	-0.0003	-0.0005
mlp_c0.99	W5	0.0003	0.0003
ridge_sev_c1	W5	0.0001	0.0002
ridge_sev_c0.9	W5	0.0001	0.0001
ridge_sev_c0.99	W5	0.0002	0.0003
hgb_sev_c1	W5	-0.0004	-0.0006
hgb_sev_c0.9	W5	-0	-0.0001
hgb_sev_c0.99	W5	-0.0005	-0.0006
mlp_sev_c1	W5	-0.0002	-0.0003
mlp_sev_c0.9	W5	0.0005	0.0007
mlp_sev_c0.99	W5	0.0001	0.0001
cnn_c1	W5	0.0018	0.0026
ann_torch_c1	W5	0.0005	0.0008
logistic_c1	W6	0.0012	0.0016
logistic_c0.9	W6	0.0011	0.0015
logistic_c0.99	W6	0.0013	0.0018
hgb_c1	W6	-0.0003	-0.0005
hgb_c0.9	W6	0.0002	0.0001
hgb_c0.99	W6	-0.0001	-0.0002
rf_c1	W6	-0.0004	-0.0007
rf_c0.9	W6	-0.0003	-0.0005
rf_c0.99	W6	-0.0004	-0.0006
mlp_c1	W6	0.0003	0.0003
mlp_c0.9	W6	0.0003	0.0004
mlp_c0.99	W6	0.0003	0.0005
ridge_sev_c1	W6	0.0003	0.0003
ridge_sev_c0.9	W6	0.0007	0.0009
ridge_sev_c0.99	W6	0.0004	0.0004
hgb_sev_c1	W6	0.0004	0.0004
hgb_sev_c0.9	W6	0.0004	0.0004
hgb_sev_c0.99	W6	0.0005	0.0007
mlp_sev_c1	W6	0.0001	0
mlp_sev_c0.9	W6	-0.0003	-0.0006
mlp_sev_c0.99	W6	-0.0001	-0.0003
cnn_c1	W6	0.0022	0.003
ann_torch_c1	W6	0.0005	0.0006

§6 vote — per-member binary scores

results/tables/v6_member_scores_by_block.csv · 138 rows × 11 cols

All 23 vote members (7 families × 3 cutoffs + cnn_c1 + ann_torch_c1) scored per block at each member's own leakage-safe threshold. This is where the CNN single-member SEDI lives (strongest single member at long lead).

member	block	n	base_rate	POD	POFD	FAR	CSI	Peirce	SEDI	freq_bias
logistic_c1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.651	0.306	0.382	0.464	0.346	0.477	1.055
logistic_c1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.602	0.385	0.564	0.339	0.218	0.308	1.38
logistic_c1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.532	0.389	0.596	0.298	0.144	0.206	1.317
logistic_c1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.547	0.424	0.611	0.294	0.123	0.176	1.404
logistic_c1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.508	0.404	0.616	0.28	0.104	0.15	1.324
logistic_c1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.503	0.412	0.623	0.274	0.091	0.131	1.335
logistic_c0.9	W1	1117165	0.431	0.748	0.388	0.406	0.495	0.36	0.497	1.26
logistic_c0.9	W2	1119870	0.331	0.672	0.451	0.576	0.352	0.221	0.315	1.585
logistic_c0.9	W3	1119870	0.331	0.584	0.446	0.607	0.307	0.138	0.198	1.485
logistic_c0.9	W4	1119870	0.331	0.585	0.47	0.619	0.3	0.115	0.166	1.534
logistic_c0.9	W5	1119870	0.331	0.519	0.414	0.617	0.283	0.106	0.152	1.356
logistic_c0.9	W6	1119870	0.331	0.54	0.452	0.629	0.282	0.088	0.127	1.454
logistic_c0.99	W1	1117165	0.431	0.653	0.307	0.383	0.465	0.346	0.477	1.058
logistic_c0.99	W2	1119870	0.331	0.6	0.382	0.563	0.338	0.218	0.309	1.374
logistic_c0.99	W3	1119870	0.331	0.53	0.386	0.595	0.298	0.144	0.206	1.309
logistic_c0.99	W4	1119870	0.331	0.546	0.424	0.611	0.294	0.122	0.174	1.403
logistic_c0.99	W5	1119870	0.331	0.511	0.408	0.618	0.28	0.103	0.148	1.336
logistic_c0.99	W6	1119870	0.331	0.499	0.405	0.621	0.274	0.094	0.135	1.319
hgb_c1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.76	0.241	0.295	0.577	0.519	0.676	1.079
hgb_c1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.642	0.345	0.521	0.378	0.296	0.413	1.341
hgb_c1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.575	0.403	0.586	0.317	0.172	0.246	1.388
hgb_c1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.55	0.407	0.599	0.302	0.143	0.204	1.373
hgb_c1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.531	0.411	0.61	0.29	0.12	0.172	1.363
hgb_c1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.517	0.416	0.62	0.28	0.1	0.144	1.359
hgb_c0.9	W1	1117165	0.431	0.768	0.248	0.298	0.579	0.521	0.678	1.095
hgb_c0.9	W2	1119870	0.331	0.652	0.356	0.525	0.379	0.295	0.412	1.372
hgb_c0.9	W3	1119870	0.331	0.578	0.406	0.587	0.317	0.171	0.244	1.398
hgb_c0.9	W4	1119870	0.331	0.552	0.411	0.601	0.301	0.141	0.202	1.382
hgb_c0.9	W5	1119870	0.331	0.535	0.418	0.613	0.29	0.117	0.168	1.381
hgb_c0.9	W6	1119870	0.331	0.528	0.422	0.618	0.285	0.105	0.152	1.382
hgb_c0.99	W1	1117165	0.431	0.761	0.243	0.296	0.576	0.518	0.676	1.081
hgb_c0.99	W2	1119870	0.331	0.644	0.348	0.522	0.378	0.296	0.413	1.349
hgb_c0.99	W3	1119870	0.331	0.581	0.406	0.585	0.319	0.175	0.25	1.402
hgb_c0.99	W4	1119870	0.331	0.548	0.408	0.601	0.3	0.14	0.2	1.371
hgb_c0.99	W5	1119870	0.331	0.532	0.414	0.611	0.29	0.118	0.17	1.369
hgb_c0.99	W6	1119870	0.331	0.522	0.42	0.619	0.282	0.102	0.147	1.371
rf_c1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.745	0.28	0.331	0.544	0.465	0.619	1.115
rf_c1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.648	0.364	0.532	0.373	0.284	0.397	1.385
rf_c1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.577	0.4	0.583	0.319	0.177	0.252	1.386
rf_c1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.541	0.401	0.6	0.299	0.14	0.201	1.35
rf_c1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.539	0.421	0.612	0.291	0.118	0.169	1.39
rf_c1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.508	0.405	0.617	0.279	0.103	0.149	1.326
rf_c0.9	W1	1117165	0.431	0.751	0.279	0.329	0.549	0.472	0.626	1.119
rf_c0.9	W2	1119870	0.331	0.666	0.381	0.537	0.376	0.284	0.398	1.437
rf_c0.9	W3	1119870	0.331	0.593	0.418	0.587	0.322	0.176	0.25	1.437
rf_c0.9	W4	1119870	0.331	0.557	0.419	0.603	0.302	0.138	0.198	1.404
rf_c0.9	W5	1119870	0.331	0.549	0.432	0.614	0.293	0.118	0.169	1.422
rf_c0.9	W6	1119870	0.331	0.52	0.416	0.618	0.282	0.103	0.149	1.361
rf_c0.99	W1	1117165	0.431	0.745	0.279	0.331	0.545	0.466	0.619	1.113
rf_c0.99	W2	1119870	0.331	0.646	0.363	0.532	0.373	0.283	0.397	1.38
rf_c0.99	W3	1119870	0.331	0.58	0.404	0.585	0.319	0.176	0.25	1.396
rf_c0.99	W4	1119870	0.331	0.547	0.407	0.601	0.3	0.14	0.201	1.368
rf_c0.99	W5	1119870	0.331	0.533	0.415	0.612	0.29	0.118	0.17	1.372
rf_c0.99	W6	1119870	0.331	0.509	0.406	0.617	0.279	0.103	0.148	1.329
mlp_c1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.76	0.252	0.305	0.57	0.508	0.665	1.093
mlp_c1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.659	0.362	0.527	0.38	0.297	0.414	1.392
mlp_c1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.592	0.415	0.586	0.322	0.176	0.251	1.43
mlp_c1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.563	0.419	0.6	0.305	0.145	0.207	1.409
mlp_c1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.563	0.454	0.62	0.293	0.109	0.156	1.481
mlp_c1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.574	0.472	0.624	0.294	0.102	0.147	1.529
mlp_c0.9	W1	1117165	0.431	0.757	0.255	0.308	0.566	0.502	0.658	1.094
mlp_c0.9	W2	1119870	0.331	0.652	0.37	0.534	0.373	0.282	0.395	1.4
mlp_c0.9	W3	1119870	0.331	0.6	0.421	0.586	0.324	0.179	0.256	1.45
mlp_c0.9	W4	1119870	0.331	0.591	0.442	0.602	0.312	0.15	0.214	1.484
mlp_c0.9	W5	1119870	0.331	0.567	0.458	0.62	0.295	0.109	0.157	1.493
mlp_c0.9	W6	1119870	0.331	0.575	0.472	0.624	0.294	0.103	0.149	1.529
mlp_c0.99	W1	1117165	0.431	0.759	0.251	0.304	0.57	0.508	0.664	1.09
mlp_c0.99	W2	1119870	0.331	0.655	0.364	0.529	0.377	0.291	0.406	1.391
mlp_c0.99	W3	1119870	0.331	0.585	0.411	0.586	0.32	0.174	0.249	1.415
mlp_c0.99	W4	1119870	0.331	0.568	0.425	0.602	0.305	0.142	0.204	1.427
mlp_c0.99	W5	1119870	0.331	0.575	0.456	0.616	0.299	0.119	0.17	1.497
mlp_c0.99	W6	1119870	0.331	0.581	0.475	0.623	0.296	0.106	0.152	1.542
ridge_sev_c1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.662	0.321	0.39	0.465	0.341	0.47	1.085
ridge_sev_c1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.613	0.388	0.561	0.344	0.225	0.319	1.399
ridge_sev_c1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.533	0.387	0.594	0.299	0.146	0.209	1.313
ridge_sev_c1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.552	0.439	0.616	0.293	0.113	0.163	1.438
ridge_sev_c1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.53	0.424	0.618	0.285	0.105	0.152	1.388
ridge_sev_c1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.506	0.421	0.628	0.273	0.084	0.121	1.358
ridge_sev_c0.9	W1	1117165	0.431	0.748	0.384	0.404	0.497	0.364	0.502	1.254
ridge_sev_c0.9	W2	1119870	0.331	0.66	0.438	0.573	0.35	0.222	0.315	1.547
ridge_sev_c0.9	W3	1119870	0.331	0.537	0.388	0.593	0.301	0.149	0.213	1.321
ridge_sev_c0.9	W4	1119870	0.331	0.62	0.501	0.621	0.308	0.118	0.17	1.633
ridge_sev_c0.9	W5	1119870	0.331	0.526	0.429	0.622	0.282	0.097	0.14	1.394
ridge_sev_c0.9	W6	1119870	0.331	0.527	0.435	0.626	0.28	0.092	0.132	1.407
ridge_sev_c0.99	W1	1117165	0.431	0.66	0.315	0.387	0.466	0.344	0.475	1.075
ridge_sev_c0.99	W2	1119870	0.331	0.611	0.385	0.56	0.344	0.226	0.32	1.391
ridge_sev_c0.99	W3	1119870	0.331	0.514	0.365	0.589	0.296	0.149	0.213	1.251
ridge_sev_c0.99	W4	1119870	0.331	0.562	0.444	0.615	0.296	0.118	0.169	1.46
ridge_sev_c0.99	W5	1119870	0.331	0.531	0.426	0.619	0.285	0.105	0.151	1.391
ridge_sev_c0.99	W6	1119870	0.331	0.507	0.421	0.627	0.274	0.085	0.123	1.358
hgb_sev_c1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.758	0.246	0.3	0.572	0.512	0.669	1.082
hgb_sev_c1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.637	0.35	0.526	0.373	0.288	0.402	1.344
hgb_sev_c1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.573	0.403	0.587	0.316	0.17	0.243	1.385
hgb_sev_c1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.533	0.396	0.6	0.296	0.137	0.197	1.332
hgb_sev_c1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.542	0.425	0.613	0.292	0.117	0.168	1.401
hgb_sev_c1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.545	0.44	0.62	0.288	0.105	0.15	1.435
hgb_sev_c0.9	W1	1117165	0.431	0.765	0.248	0.299	0.576	0.517	0.674	1.091
hgb_sev_c0.9	W2	1119870	0.331	0.636	0.348	0.526	0.373	0.287	0.402	1.34
hgb_sev_c0.9	W3	1119870	0.331	0.568	0.401	0.588	0.314	0.167	0.239	1.378
hgb_sev_c0.9	W4	1119870	0.331	0.529	0.39	0.598	0.296	0.139	0.199	1.317
hgb_sev_c0.9	W5	1119870	0.331	0.534	0.417	0.612	0.29	0.117	0.168	1.378
hgb_sev_c0.9	W6	1119870	0.331	0.534	0.428	0.618	0.286	0.106	0.152	1.399
hgb_sev_c0.99	W1	1117165	0.431	0.759	0.247	0.3	0.573	0.512	0.669	1.085
hgb_sev_c0.99	W2	1119870	0.331	0.635	0.346	0.525	0.373	0.289	0.403	1.335
hgb_sev_c0.99	W3	1119870	0.331	0.572	0.404	0.588	0.315	0.167	0.239	1.388
hgb_sev_c0.99	W4	1119870	0.331	0.54	0.4	0.599	0.299	0.14	0.201	1.348
hgb_sev_c0.99	W5	1119870	0.331	0.542	0.427	0.614	0.291	0.115	0.165	1.406
hgb_sev_c0.99	W6	1119870	0.331	0.544	0.438	0.619	0.289	0.106	0.153	1.431
mlp_sev_c1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.766	0.248	0.299	0.577	0.518	0.675	1.094
mlp_sev_c1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.651	0.367	0.533	0.374	0.284	0.398	1.394
mlp_sev_c1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.584	0.42	0.592	0.316	0.164	0.234	1.431
mlp_sev_c1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.558	0.427	0.607	0.299	0.131	0.188	1.421
mlp_sev_c1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.538	0.43	0.618	0.288	0.108	0.155	1.408
mlp_sev_c1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.559	0.462	0.626	0.289	0.097	0.139	1.494
mlp_sev_c0.9	W1	1117165	0.431	0.762	0.252	0.304	0.572	0.51	0.667	1.095
mlp_sev_c0.9	W2	1119870	0.331	0.646	0.365	0.533	0.371	0.281	0.393	1.384
mlp_sev_c0.9	W3	1119870	0.331	0.583	0.42	0.592	0.316	0.164	0.233	1.431
mlp_sev_c0.9	W4	1119870	0.331	0.558	0.428	0.608	0.299	0.13	0.187	1.423
mlp_sev_c0.9	W5	1119870	0.331	0.55	0.43	0.612	0.294	0.12	0.173	1.42
mlp_sev_c0.9	W6	1119870	0.331	0.549	0.457	0.627	0.285	0.092	0.132	1.474
mlp_sev_c0.99	W1	1117165	0.431	0.759	0.246	0.299	0.573	0.513	0.671	1.084
mlp_sev_c0.99	W2	1119870	0.331	0.638	0.354	0.529	0.372	0.284	0.397	1.353
mlp_sev_c0.99	W3	1119870	0.331	0.574	0.422	0.598	0.31	0.152	0.217	1.425
mlp_sev_c0.99	W4	1119870	0.331	0.553	0.423	0.607	0.298	0.13	0.187	1.407
mlp_sev_c0.99	W5	1119870	0.331	0.555	0.436	0.614	0.295	0.119	0.171	1.436
mlp_sev_c0.99	W6	1119870	0.331	0.558	0.461	0.626	0.289	0.096	0.139	1.49
cnn_c1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.775	0.226	0.278	0.597	0.549	0.707	1.074
cnn_c1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.677	0.353	0.514	0.395	0.324	0.449	1.392
cnn_c1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.62	0.411	0.572	0.339	0.209	0.296	1.45
cnn_c1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.603	0.431	0.591	0.322	0.172	0.245	1.475
cnn_c1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.577	0.426	0.599	0.31	0.151	0.216	1.438
cnn_c1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.608	0.478	0.614	0.309	0.13	0.187	1.575
ann_torch_c1	W1	1117165	0.431	0.75	0.265	0.318	0.556	0.485	0.64	1.1
ann_torch_c1	W2	1119870	0.331	0.653	0.382	0.542	0.368	0.271	0.38	1.426
ann_torch_c1	W3	1119870	0.331	0.605	0.429	0.589	0.324	0.176	0.251	1.472
ann_torch_c1	W4	1119870	0.331	0.591	0.443	0.602	0.312	0.148	0.212	1.486
ann_torch_c1	W5	1119870	0.331	0.602	0.477	0.616	0.306	0.125	0.179	1.567
ann_torch_c1	W6	1119870	0.331	0.585	0.484	0.626	0.296	0.101	0.145	1.564

§6 vote — P0 sweep

results/tables/v6_p0_sweep.csv · 144 rows × 9 cols

Skill of the vote ensemble as the decision threshold P0 is swept, per block — used to locate the Peirce-optimal P0.

block	P0	m_min	POD	POFD	FAR	CSI	Peirce	SEDI
W1	0	0	1	1	0.569	0.431	0	-0
W1	0.0435	1	0.937	0.571	0.445	0.535	0.367	0.57
W1	0.087	2	0.916	0.522	0.429	0.542	0.394	0.582
W1	0.1304	3	0.898	0.476	0.411	0.552	0.422	0.601
W1	0.1739	4	0.884	0.448	0.401	0.556	0.436	0.609
W1	0.2174	5	0.87	0.413	0.385	0.563	0.456	0.626
W1	0.2609	6	0.858	0.394	0.377	0.564	0.464	0.63
W1	0.3043	7	0.838	0.347	0.353	0.575	0.492	0.655
W1	0.3478	8	0.823	0.323	0.341	0.577	0.5	0.661
W1	0.3913	9	0.81	0.304	0.332	0.578	0.505	0.664
W1	0.4348	10	0.795	0.282	0.319	0.579	0.513	0.671
W1	0.4783	11	0.78	0.265	0.309	0.578	0.516	0.673
W1	0.5217	12	0.767	0.249	0.3	0.577	0.517	0.674
W1	0.5652	13	0.751	0.235	0.292	0.574	0.517	0.674
W1	0.6087	14	0.735	0.22	0.283	0.57	0.515	0.673
W1	0.6522	15	0.717	0.206	0.275	0.564	0.511	0.669
W1	0.6957	16	0.698	0.192	0.266	0.557	0.506	0.665
W1	0.7391	17	0.674	0.176	0.256	0.548	0.499	0.66
W1	0.7826	18	0.621	0.155	0.247	0.516	0.467	0.63
W1	0.8261	19	0.594	0.141	0.238	0.501	0.453	0.62
W1	0.8696	20	0.561	0.126	0.229	0.481	0.434	0.604
W1	0.913	21	0.537	0.113	0.217	0.467	0.424	0.598
W1	0.9565	22	0.502	0.097	0.203	0.445	0.405	0.586
W1	1	23	0.456	0.073	0.175	0.416	0.383	0.578
W2	0	0	1	1	0.669	0.331	0	-0
W2	0.0435	1	0.899	0.702	0.612	0.372	0.197	0.336
W2	0.087	2	0.864	0.633	0.597	0.379	0.231	0.362
W2	0.1304	3	0.839	0.588	0.587	0.383	0.251	0.378
W2	0.1739	4	0.817	0.554	0.578	0.386	0.264	0.389
W2	0.2174	5	0.796	0.522	0.57	0.387	0.275	0.398
W2	0.2609	6	0.778	0.497	0.564	0.388	0.281	0.403
W2	0.3043	7	0.757	0.465	0.554	0.39	0.292	0.414
W2	0.3478	8	0.736	0.439	0.547	0.39	0.297	0.418
W2	0.3913	9	0.718	0.418	0.541	0.389	0.3	0.42
W2	0.4348	10	0.699	0.398	0.535	0.388	0.302	0.422
W2	0.4783	11	0.68	0.377	0.529	0.386	0.303	0.423
W2	0.5217	12	0.66	0.358	0.523	0.383	0.303	0.422
W2	0.5652	13	0.641	0.339	0.517	0.38	0.302	0.42
W2	0.6087	14	0.62	0.321	0.511	0.376	0.3	0.418
W2	0.6522	15	0.599	0.302	0.505	0.372	0.297	0.415
W2	0.6957	16	0.576	0.283	0.499	0.366	0.293	0.411
W2	0.7391	17	0.55	0.263	0.491	0.359	0.287	0.406
W2	0.7826	18	0.518	0.24	0.484	0.349	0.278	0.397
W2	0.8261	19	0.489	0.22	0.476	0.338	0.269	0.388
W2	0.8696	20	0.458	0.199	0.468	0.326	0.259	0.379
W2	0.913	21	0.413	0.173	0.459	0.306	0.24	0.361
W2	0.9565	22	0.371	0.147	0.445	0.286	0.224	0.348
W2	1	23	0.316	0.114	0.421	0.257	0.202	0.335
W3	0	0	1	1	0.669	0.331	0	-0
W3	0.0435	1	0.89	0.787	0.641	0.344	0.103	0.191
W3	0.087	2	0.843	0.712	0.63	0.346	0.131	0.215
W3	0.1304	3	0.811	0.665	0.624	0.346	0.146	0.228
W3	0.1739	4	0.78	0.62	0.616	0.347	0.161	0.243
W3	0.2174	5	0.754	0.584	0.61	0.346	0.169	0.251
W3	0.2609	6	0.728	0.552	0.605	0.344	0.176	0.257
W3	0.3043	7	0.702	0.52	0.599	0.342	0.182	0.263
W3	0.3478	8	0.677	0.491	0.594	0.34	0.186	0.268
W3	0.3913	9	0.653	0.464	0.59	0.337	0.188	0.269
W3	0.4348	10	0.63	0.439	0.585	0.334	0.191	0.272
W3	0.4783	11	0.607	0.415	0.58	0.33	0.192	0.274
W3	0.5217	12	0.584	0.392	0.575	0.326	0.192	0.273
W3	0.5652	13	0.56	0.369	0.571	0.321	0.191	0.272
W3	0.6087	14	0.536	0.347	0.567	0.315	0.189	0.27
W3	0.6522	15	0.51	0.324	0.562	0.308	0.186	0.266
W3	0.6957	16	0.483	0.302	0.558	0.3	0.182	0.262
W3	0.7391	17	0.455	0.278	0.552	0.291	0.177	0.258
W3	0.7826	18	0.424	0.252	0.546	0.281	0.171	0.253
W3	0.8261	19	0.393	0.228	0.54	0.269	0.165	0.247
W3	0.8696	20	0.359	0.202	0.532	0.255	0.157	0.241
W3	0.913	21	0.311	0.169	0.524	0.232	0.141	0.227
W3	0.9565	22	0.267	0.139	0.512	0.208	0.128	0.217
W3	1	23	0.213	0.103	0.494	0.176	0.11	0.206
W4	0	0	1	1	0.669	0.331	0	-0
W4	0.0435	1	0.898	0.82	0.649	0.338	0.078	0.153
W4	0.087	2	0.854	0.753	0.641	0.339	0.101	0.173
W4	0.1304	3	0.823	0.707	0.635	0.339	0.116	0.187
W4	0.1739	4	0.788	0.656	0.627	0.339	0.131	0.203
W4	0.2174	5	0.758	0.619	0.623	0.337	0.139	0.209
W4	0.2609	6	0.731	0.586	0.618	0.335	0.145	0.214
W4	0.3043	7	0.703	0.552	0.613	0.333	0.152	0.221
W4	0.3478	8	0.677	0.521	0.609	0.33	0.156	0.226
W4	0.3913	9	0.652	0.493	0.605	0.326	0.159	0.228
W4	0.4348	10	0.627	0.466	0.6	0.323	0.161	0.23
W4	0.4783	11	0.602	0.44	0.596	0.319	0.162	0.232
W4	0.5217	12	0.576	0.414	0.592	0.314	0.162	0.232
W4	0.5652	13	0.551	0.389	0.588	0.308	0.161	0.23
W4	0.6087	14	0.523	0.364	0.584	0.301	0.159	0.228
W4	0.6522	15	0.492	0.337	0.58	0.293	0.156	0.224
W4	0.6957	16	0.463	0.311	0.576	0.284	0.152	0.221
W4	0.7391	17	0.431	0.284	0.571	0.274	0.147	0.216
W4	0.7826	18	0.395	0.255	0.566	0.261	0.14	0.209
W4	0.8261	19	0.36	0.228	0.561	0.247	0.132	0.201
W4	0.8696	20	0.323	0.199	0.555	0.23	0.124	0.194
W4	0.913	21	0.268	0.16	0.547	0.202	0.107	0.179
W4	0.9565	22	0.225	0.129	0.537	0.179	0.096	0.171
W4	1	23	0.174	0.094	0.522	0.146	0.08	0.161
W5	0	0	1	1	0.669	0.331	0	-0
W5	0.0435	1	0.89	0.821	0.651	0.335	0.07	0.135
W5	0.087	2	0.847	0.762	0.645	0.333	0.085	0.147
W5	0.1304	3	0.815	0.718	0.641	0.332	0.096	0.156
W5	0.1739	4	0.777	0.667	0.634	0.331	0.11	0.17
W5	0.2174	5	0.747	0.629	0.63	0.329	0.118	0.178
W5	0.2609	6	0.718	0.595	0.626	0.326	0.124	0.183
W5	0.3043	7	0.689	0.562	0.622	0.323	0.128	0.187
W5	0.3478	8	0.662	0.531	0.619	0.319	0.131	0.189
W5	0.3913	9	0.635	0.502	0.615	0.315	0.133	0.192
W5	0.4348	10	0.608	0.474	0.612	0.311	0.134	0.193
W5	0.4783	11	0.582	0.446	0.608	0.306	0.136	0.194
W5	0.5217	12	0.554	0.418	0.604	0.3	0.136	0.194
W5	0.5652	13	0.527	0.392	0.601	0.294	0.135	0.194
W5	0.6087	14	0.5	0.365	0.597	0.287	0.134	0.194
W5	0.6522	15	0.47	0.337	0.592	0.279	0.133	0.192
W5	0.6957	16	0.441	0.311	0.588	0.271	0.13	0.19
W5	0.7391	17	0.409	0.283	0.583	0.26	0.126	0.186
W5	0.7826	18	0.373	0.253	0.578	0.247	0.12	0.181
W5	0.8261	19	0.339	0.225	0.573	0.233	0.114	0.176
W5	0.8696	20	0.3	0.194	0.566	0.216	0.106	0.169
W5	0.913	21	0.243	0.152	0.559	0.186	0.091	0.155
W5	0.9565	22	0.204	0.124	0.552	0.163	0.08	0.146
W5	1	23	0.16	0.091	0.535	0.135	0.069	0.142
W6	0	0	1	1	0.669	0.331	0	-0
W6	0.0435	1	0.908	0.844	0.653	0.335	0.064	0.132
W6	0.087	2	0.861	0.786	0.648	0.333	0.076	0.135
W6	0.1304	3	0.827	0.742	0.645	0.331	0.085	0.141
W6	0.1739	4	0.789	0.693	0.64	0.329	0.096	0.151
W6	0.2174	5	0.756	0.655	0.637	0.325	0.101	0.154
W6	0.2609	6	0.725	0.619	0.633	0.322	0.106	0.158
W6	0.3043	7	0.694	0.584	0.63	0.318	0.11	0.161
W6	0.3478	8	0.664	0.551	0.626	0.314	0.113	0.165
W6	0.3913	9	0.636	0.519	0.623	0.31	0.117	0.169
W6	0.4348	10	0.606	0.487	0.619	0.305	0.119	0.171
W6	0.4783	11	0.577	0.457	0.616	0.3	0.12	0.173
W6	0.5217	12	0.549	0.427	0.612	0.295	0.122	0.175
W6	0.5652	13	0.52	0.399	0.608	0.288	0.121	0.174
W6	0.6087	14	0.491	0.372	0.605	0.28	0.119	0.172
W6	0.6522	15	0.459	0.342	0.601	0.271	0.116	0.169
W6	0.6957	16	0.429	0.314	0.597	0.262	0.115	0.168
W6	0.7391	17	0.396	0.286	0.593	0.251	0.11	0.164
W6	0.7826	18	0.356	0.252	0.589	0.236	0.104	0.157
W6	0.8261	19	0.321	0.224	0.585	0.221	0.098	0.152
W6	0.8696	20	0.283	0.192	0.579	0.204	0.091	0.147
W6	0.913	21	0.221	0.147	0.573	0.17	0.074	0.13
W6	0.9565	22	0.183	0.118	0.566	0.148	0.065	0.123
W6	1	23	0.143	0.087	0.552	0.122	0.056	0.121

block	n_region_inits	Pthres_perfold_mean	POD	POFD	FAR	CSI	Peirce	SEDI	POD_at0p5	FAR_at0p5	Peirce_at0p5
W1	14455	0.583	0.833	0.187	0.273	0.635	0.646	0.798	0.851	0.249	0.649
W2	14490	0.655	0.674	0.311	0.594	0.34	0.363	0.498	0.73	0.535	0.357
W3	14490	0.485	0.638	0.422	0.59	0.333	0.216	0.306	0.632	0.596	0.216
W4	14490	0.55	0.595	0.406	0.632	0.294	0.188	0.268	0.611	0.613	0.181
W5	14490	0.095	0.763	0.608	0.373	0.525	0.156	0.233	0.573	0.631	0.139
W6	14490	0.337	0.657	0.499	0.524	0.381	0.158	0.228	0.564	0.633	0.132

§6 regional event table (detail)

results/tables/v6_regional_event_table.csv · 42 rows × 13 cols

The per-(region, week) event forecast detail underlying the by-week summary above.

region	block	Pthres	n_inits	hits	false_alarms	misses	POD	POFD	FAR	CSI	Peirce	SEDI
1	W1	0.583	2065	667	259	121	0.846	0.203	0.28	0.637	0.644	0.796
2	W1	0.583	2065	694	234	149	0.823	0.191	0.252	0.644	0.632	0.785
3	W1	0.583	2065	707	244	147	0.828	0.201	0.257	0.644	0.626	0.781
4	W1	0.583	2065	684	189	124	0.847	0.15	0.216	0.686	0.696	0.839
5	W1	0.583	2065	513	267	156	0.767	0.191	0.342	0.548	0.576	0.734
6	W1	0.583	2065	624	208	87	0.878	0.154	0.25	0.679	0.724	0.861
7	W1	0.583	2065	641	246	109	0.855	0.187	0.277	0.644	0.668	0.817
1	W2	0.655	2070	365	563	151	0.707	0.362	0.607	0.338	0.345	0.476
2	W2	0.655	2070	334	508	219	0.604	0.335	0.603	0.315	0.269	0.378
3	W2	0.655	2070	372	538	208	0.641	0.361	0.591	0.333	0.28	0.392
4	W2	0.655	2070	347	472	195	0.64	0.309	0.576	0.342	0.331	0.459
5	W2	0.655	2070	281	490	127	0.689	0.295	0.636	0.313	0.394	0.536
6	W2	0.655	2070	324	395	110	0.747	0.241	0.549	0.391	0.505	0.662
7	W2	0.655	2070	346	441	106	0.765	0.273	0.56	0.387	0.493	0.649
1	W3	0.485	2070	405	635	248	0.62	0.448	0.611	0.314	0.172	0.246
2	W3	0.485	2070	394	605	289	0.577	0.436	0.606	0.306	0.141	0.201
3	W3	0.485	2070	401	604	295	0.576	0.44	0.601	0.308	0.137	0.196
4	W3	0.485	2070	396	598	297	0.571	0.434	0.602	0.307	0.137	0.196
5	W3	0.485	2070	387	696	181	0.681	0.463	0.643	0.306	0.218	0.311
6	W3	0.485	2070	448	517	172	0.723	0.357	0.536	0.394	0.366	0.503
7	W3	0.485	2070	510	541	162	0.759	0.387	0.515	0.42	0.372	0.512
1	W4	0.55	2070	343	673	241	0.587	0.453	0.662	0.273	0.134	0.193
2	W4	0.55	2070	362	716	265	0.577	0.496	0.664	0.27	0.081	0.117
3	W4	0.55	2070	380	690	273	0.582	0.487	0.645	0.283	0.095	0.137
4	W4	0.55	2070	324	612	300	0.519	0.423	0.654	0.262	0.096	0.138
5	W4	0.55	2070	311	553	193	0.617	0.353	0.64	0.294	0.264	0.371
6	W4	0.55	2070	326	428	218	0.599	0.28	0.568	0.335	0.319	0.444
7	W4	0.55	2070	404	542	179	0.693	0.364	0.573	0.359	0.328	0.455
1	W5	0.095	2070	850	539	309	0.733	0.592	0.388	0.501	0.142	0.21
2	W5	0.095	2070	783	541	364	0.683	0.586	0.409	0.464	0.097	0.142
3	W5	0.095	2070	708	584	346	0.672	0.575	0.452	0.432	0.097	0.142
4	W5	0.095	2070	834	542	304	0.733	0.582	0.394	0.496	0.151	0.223
5	W5	0.095	2070	1044	596	190	0.846	0.713	0.363	0.57	0.133	0.219
6	W5	0.095	2070	1060	506	209	0.835	0.632	0.323	0.597	0.204	0.315
7	W5	0.095	2070	1105	429	219	0.835	0.575	0.28	0.63	0.26	0.388
1	W6	0.337	2070	469	629	327	0.589	0.494	0.573	0.329	0.095	0.138
2	W6	0.337	2070	464	620	347	0.572	0.492	0.572	0.324	0.08	0.115
3	W6	0.337	2070	464	667	332	0.583	0.524	0.59	0.317	0.059	0.086
4	W6	0.337	2070	482	626	347	0.581	0.504	0.565	0.331	0.077	0.111
5	W6	0.337	2070	502	684	262	0.657	0.524	0.577	0.347	0.133	0.193
6	W6	0.337	2070	541	580	274	0.664	0.462	0.517	0.388	0.202	0.288
7	W6	0.337	2070	609	645	224	0.731	0.521	0.514	0.412	0.21	0.303

QG_1 — all results tables

Contents

Bootstrap 95% CI + significance (headline)

Headline CV skill by lead block

CV skill by climate region × block

CV skill by init season × block

CV skill by base-rate severity tercile × block

Forecast Tx extraction summary

Gridded vs station obs — by region

Gridded vs station obs — per station

Region geometry / names

Regional partition / operational flag table

Single-fold dev smoke-test (holdout 2022)

Station metadata

Threshold diagnostic — region × month

v2 zoo — best single model per block

v2 zoo — binary scores by model × cutoff × block

v2 ensemble vs members

§6 vote — leave-one-member-out contribution

§6 vote — per-member binary scores

§6 vote — P0 sweep

§6 regional event forecast — skill by week

§6 regional event table (detail)

§6 vote — ensemble skill + optimal P0

Independent re-derivation of the headline